Richard Miller

Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency (paper)

As the upheavals in the Middle East drive the oil price ever higher, the report identifies a litany of questionable assumptions that underpin the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), on which UK policy is based.

March 4, 2011

ODAC Guest Commentary – Falklands oil and the British economy

The first wells of the modern era (there may have been older ones, I don’t know) were six drilled around 1998 in the North Falklands Basin. A sniff of gas and oil was found in two of them. Other wells have since been drilled, and nothing found anything to write home about. The current minor hoo-hah relates to an old well which has been “re-interpreted” to suggest that it did cut oil-bearing reservoir. Since the early wells, FOG and Desire have been at the forefront, raising funds for more seismic and drilling, together with Rockhopper and one or two other minors and special vehicles. A few of the majors have partnered some work.

December 2, 2009

ODAC Guest Commentary – The Wicks Report

“There is no crisis”, states the introduction to this paper. We suggest that Mr Wicks is therefore not entirely in command of his brief. This paper gathers together many well-known, but selective and sometimes outdated, data. The conclusions are therefore rather predictable from the outset. There is little critical thought to be found here. For example, Korea is cited as a case study of successful, stable energy importation.

August 14, 2009

ODAC Guest Commentary – 2009 BP Annual Statistical Review

BPs annual Statistical Review of World Energy for 2009, its 58th, was published this week, a collection of valuable statistics accompanied by press briefings and the regular anodyne platitude.

June 12, 2009

ODAC Guest Commentary – IEA is getting rattled by events

The IEA is getting rattled by events. For some years, the IEA, EIA and OPEC all maintained the view that oil resources are so large that they must be sufficient to maintain supply. Other leaders in government and industry uncritically accepted that position, and stopped worrying. But the IEA has now broken ranks, to accept that there is a looming problem of supply, even from the large remaining resource. Current trends in energy supply and consumption, in their own words, are patently unsustainable, as ODAC has maintained for some years.

November 14, 2008

ODAC Guest Commentary – Richard Pike rebuttal

Richard Pike is an old BP hand, whose maths is sound. The proved reserve is often defined as that low amount which is 90% likely to be recovered, i.e. almost certain, and is called P90. Proved and probable reserve, or P50, is the amount which is 50% likely to be recovered. P10 also includes the possible, and is only 10% likely to be recovered.

June 13, 2008

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