Jeffrey J. Brown: Hurricanes & US Oil Production
By Chris Martenson, Jeffrey J. Brown, Peak Prosperity
To discuss the ramifications from these storms on the oil markets, geoscientist and oil explorer Jeffrey Brown returns to the podcast. He calculates that Harvey alone will have long-lasting effects such as lingering supply shortages, but his greater focus is attuned to the growing validation of his Export Land Model, which calculates the rate at which oil-producing nations cease to become net exporters as their domestic consumption increases.
To Understand The Oil Story, You Need To Understand Exports
By Chris Martenson, Jeffrey J. Brown, Peak Prosperity
Over the past ten years, it has taken us trillions of dollars, basically, to keep us on an undulating plateau in actual crude oil production. What happens going forward?
Commentary: Why is Saudi Arabia not a Threat to Fracking?
By Jeffrey J. Brown, ASPO-USA
I realize that this is a controversial assertion--that Saudi Arabian oil fields are not infinite--but it’s a possibility that is at least worth considering.
Commentary: Is it only a question of when the US once again becomes a net oil exporter?
By Jeffrey J. Brown, ASPO-USA
At a 10 percent /year decline rate, in order to simply maintain a production rate of 7.5 million b/d out to 2023, the US oil industry would have to replace the productive equivalent of every single oil field in the United States of America...
Commentary: The export capacity index
By Jeffrey J. Brown, ASPO-USA
In this paper, I briefly review recent global crude oil and liquids production numbers, and I review the Export Land Model (ELM). I also introduce the concept of the Export Capacity Index (ECI), which is simply the ratio of total petroleum liquids production to liquids consumption in net oil exporting countries. I then compare the ELM to actual case histories, and I discuss Global Net Exports of oil (GNE) and what I call Available Net Exports (ANE), or GNE less the Chindia (China + India) region’s combined net oil imports.
Commentary: America’s new energy reality – A bidding war for declining global net oil exports
By Jeffrey J. Brown, ASPO-USA
Americans are reading, almost on a daily basis, about increasing oil and gas production in the US. For example, Daniel Yergin wrote about his optimistic outlook for increasing US oil and gas production in an OpEd piece in the June 10, 1012 New York Times entitled “Americas New Energy Reality.” It’s certainly true that US oil and gas production has rebounded from the production low following the 2005 Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, but a careful analysis of the production data suggests that the production outlook it not quite as rosy as most people seem to believe.
Jeffrey Brown responds to “U.S. energy independence is no longer just a pipe dream”
By Jeffrey J. Brown, Energy Bulletin
"It's no pipe dream. The U.S. is already the world's fastest-growing oil and natural gas producer. Counting the output from Canada and Mexico, North America is "the new Middle East," Citigroup analysts declare in a recent report." Jeffrey Brown responds: The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) sums the reported production from Texas producers, and it has been doing so far decades, while the EIA apparently uses a sampling approach to estimate Texas production. For annual production in 2011, the RRC shows Texas crude oil production at 1.12 mbpd (million barrels per day), while the EIA shows it at 1.46 mbpd, a gap of 340,000 bpd. The gap between the RRC and the EIA for monthly production is even more pronounced, on the order of about 500,000 to 600,000 bpd. If the EIA is this far off for Texas, what about the other producing states, and what does it say about the EIA's global data?
An update on global net oil exports: Is it midnight on the Titanic?
By Jeffrey J. Brown, Energy Bulletin
While slowly increasing US crude oil production is very important, the dominant trend we are seeing is that developed oil importing countries like the US are being gradually priced out of the global market for exported oil, as global oil prices doubled from 2005 to 2011, and as developing countries like the Chindia region consumed an increasing share of a declining volume of global net exports of oil. (webinar on Thursday April 26)