What Happened to the Future?
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
Improbably, the global economy has returned to growth over the past four years despite the ravages of a deflationary debt collapse, a punishing oil shock, ongoing constraint from debt and deleveraging, and stagnant global wages.
The siren song of the robot
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
Indeed, the world now faces a double constraint to any further revolutionary gains to physical production: resource scarcity and the diminishing supply of the cheapest global labor, as wages in the Non-OECD have most likely seen their low. That we have reached this juncture probably explains why a new idea has arisen: The advent of robots.
A Tale of Two Forecasts
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
It was the best of times; it was the worst of times for the American public over the past month, as it was treated to two high-profile, but deeply conflicting, economic forecasts.
The new future of energy policy
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
Flood myths are common to human culture. Swollen rivers, tidal storms, and tsunamis make their appearance frequently in literature. But Hurricane Sandy, which has drawn newly etched high-water marks on the buildings of lower Manhattan (and Brooklyn), has shifted the discussion from storytelling to reality.
Getting on the train
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
Given emerging data in 2012, it's becoming increasingly clear that the post-war automobile era in the United States is now in well-articulated decline. Accordingly, it makes sense to note the beginning of a long-term supertrend that is just getting started: the resurrection of America's rail system.
The repricing of oil
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
Now that oil's price revolution -- a process that took ten years to complete -- is self-evident, it is possible once again to start anew and ask: When will the next re-pricing phase begin?
The dawn of the great California energy crash
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
California, which imports over 25% of its electricity from out of state, is in no position to lose half (!) of its entire nuclear power capacity. But that's exactly what happened earlier this year, when the San Onofre plant in north San Diego County unexpectedly went offline. The loss only worsens the broad energy deficit that has made California the most dependent state in the country on expensive, out-of-state power.
Coal: The Ignored Juggernaut
By Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity
Oil, natural gas, and alternatives dominate the headlines when it comes to energy. But there's a big and largely-overlooked revolution occurring with the energy source likely to become the most preferred fuel for a world in economic decline: coal.