Gary Horvitz

When it takes one barrel of oil to produce a new barrel of oil, it’s game over. That will be the moment when growth, debt and grief will achieve singularity. That will be the moment when the value of money will erode, and we will face an imperative to finally metabolize the grief that was so long stored in that value.

Over the past decade, the global mining industry has become intensely focused on reducing risk to continue to qualify for financing and particularly to retain their social license to continue operation. Here, we will look a little more closely at another troubling aspect of how we expect to leave behind the fossil-fuel economy: total material requirements and waste.

The real contribution of native tribes at this point might be to be more aggressive in  showing us exactly what we are losing. Will that make any difference?

Existing sampling technologies used to determine mineral density on the seabed estimate volumes 3-5x greater than all known land-based reserves. Yet studies on the environmental effects of creating plumes of sediment that will settle and cover (and smother) organisms on the sea floor or the effects of ploughing up large areas of the sea floor indicate that for all practical purposes, the damage is permanent.

The pressure to hold miners and governments accountable for the entire field of known risks and externalized costs will certainly encounter resistance. But it will also increase operating costs and reduce the bottom line. At some point, the ongoing destruction undermines the social license of the industry and raises the cost of financing.

The water issues surrounding copper and lithium are daunting and may seem shocking (and dangerous) to tolerate. New mines will exacerbate existing water scarcity. Yet at some point (not yet) every EV battery that hits the road will not only reduce our reliance on oil but will save substantial amounts of water. The question is, do we have sufficient supply to complete this transition at all?