David Korowicz

Our species rarely anticipates and prepares for novel risks, nor should we expect this to happen now. We need to be able to move forward with preparedness efforts without relying upon wide society buy-in. Facing such challenges head on is an act of optimism.

But the reality of our lives, irrespective of wealth or position, is that we are thoroughly interdependent with each other, the socio-economic networks that bind us, and the planet and its living system that holds us all. When we tear at the fabric of our relationships, we undermine the welfare of all, and our capacities to face the dire challenges ahead.

How could such acknowledged experts, well resourced, stuffed with economists and consulted by governments, get things so wrong?

This new study explores the implications of a major financial crisis for the supply-chains that feed us, keep production running and maintain our critical infrastructure. It also provides a framework for looking at global complexity, vulnerability risk and collapse dynamics. A broad financial collapse is argued to be likely arisng from credit over-expansion and the emergent effects of peak oil and food. A scenario involving the collapse of the Eurozone to show that increasing socio-economic complexity could rapidly spread irretrievable supply-chain failure across the world.

Richard Douthwaite, economist, environmentalist, co-founder of Feasta and much-loved colleague and friend, died on Monday November 14th after a long illness. We will miss his unique and far-ranging intellect, the clarity of his thought and writing, his warmth and his laughter.

Funeral arrangements will be posted on the Feasta website.

The systems on which we rely for our financial transactions, food, fuel and livelihoods are so inter-dependent that they are better regarded as facets of a single global system. Maintaining and operating this global system requires a lot of energy and, because the fixed costs of operating it are high, it is only cost-effective if it is run at near full capacity. As a result, if its throughput falls because less energy is available, it does not contract in a gentle, controllable manner. Instead it is subject to catastrophic collapse.