Ben Shread-Hewitt

Like Russia’s frontline blood banks, the Venezuelan bond trade signalled that the preceding furore was headed in a specific direction. And in the increasingly chaotic, ill-defined mess of multipolar politics and climate chaos, reliably finding which ‘weak signals’ matter—and which signals are just noise—will be vital for navigating what comes next.

Climate abandonment can be avoided, or put off, in only so many cases. The culprits of this crisis may be water barons, but it is just one early punctuation point on a much longer, much steeper trendline.

So, what have we got? A global economy staggering amongst geopolitical tension, a bubble to beat all bubbles, and the twin shocks of a (potentially permanent) oil price crash and the EV subsidies ending — and all with the backdrop of worsening climate change driving up inflation and inflicting constant disasters.

One conceptualisation of this new narrative is as a ‘Thrutopia’. This is the middle passage between utopia and dystopia. The hour is too late to avoid reaping the destruction we have sown, but neither is complex human civilisation beyond hope.

But I think what makes Parable so popular and intellectually stimulating (aside from the fact that it’s a very exciting book!) is that it takes first principles—effectively social emotions—and develops them into a new politics for the challenges of the world the novel presents.

If some degree of warming is inevitable, then it is incredibly important we reach it later, rather than sooner. If we cannot yet fully avoid them, then we must decelerate our climate impacts.