(Recorded July 28 2024)
Description
In this week’s Frankly, (coincidentally released the day after Earth Overshoot Day), Nate breaks down seven factors contributing to humanity’s increasing overshoot – which is defined as the point at which species’ use of ecological resources and services exceeds what Earth can regenerate in a given time period – as well as some things that might engender a retreat from current overshoot levels.
For the first time in Earth’s history, a species is able to access, extract, consume, and inject waste into the entire biosphere – testing the limits of our planet’s stability and capacity to provide. The human system is based on the foundation of a huge energy surplus in the form of fossil fuels with the (inaccurate) worldview of limitless resources. As such, all of our institutions, lifestyles, and expectations require growth, even as we increasingly understand the damage it does to the planet.
How did humanity end up in the unique predicament of expanding its consumption beyond the limits of the most bountiful planet that we know of? Is it possible that the primary factors getting in the way of a more sustainable human future are rooted in our social and cultural structures, rather than our technologies? What opportunities still lie ahead of us to mitigate the damage we’ve already done and find a new ecological equilibrium?
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Show Notes
01:42 – Overton Window
02:02 – Ecological Overshoot
02:44 – Carrying Capacity
03:53 – The Carbon Pulse
04:10 – Megafauna biomass is 700% what it used to be
04:45 – Money tethered to energy, resources and waste, but our system neglects that
06:19 – People prefer confident, and optimistic people
06:45 – Ecolate
06:50 – Elon Musk believes Earth can support 80 billion humans
08:06 – Hedonic Ratchet
09:25 – Cognitive Dissonance
09:29 – Jared Diamond – Collapse
12:07 – Our world is ~85% run on hydrocarbons
12:41 – Increase in extreme weather events
14:30 – Syntropic technology
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Face the elephant, so we may be able to weather the transition, the contraction of population and global infrastruture better, OR: don't face it, go off the cliff accelerating all the way (which is all we do even with the Green lies!!!).
The elephant here is expecting infinite growth in energy consumption, doesn't matter from what source or what we use the energy for, as long as we keep displacing life for our constantly growing energy needs we are just unravelling the stability of Earth at a greater pace.
Expecting a finite materialism to cash out an infinite idealism is beyond insane, it is autobiocidal.
Change the greed ethic, the tits and ass wallowing values, the for profit without limit ethic, confront this technofeudal nightmare than only pretends to be free market capitlalism, that only pretends to be democratic, or not.
This choice will determine slightly better, or so much more horribly worse (very near) future outcomes.
REDUCE PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION, while equalizing expected standards of living across the globe, as an ideal aim at least, so much low hanging fruit here, just ignored, more is not more for much longer, LESS is MORE!!!
It is too late to stop the worst. Most people can not understand the scale and complexities involved here.
This is 10,000 years of us tearing down nature for luxuries no one needs to live a good life, we are dealing with, can't stop this oil tanker from hitting the pier anymore; TOO MUCH MOMENTUM!!!
We need to aim to prepare for what comes during/after we pass thru this "eye of the needle" instead.
We need to start over, the enlightenment failed, it never solved the problem of the common, just hid it in the 3rd world and at Nature's TOTAL PLANET expense.
The commons is on fire, under storm seige, and not heading in a quieter direction.
Global disaster will finally prove the greatest equalizer, but not in the rational terms we've been lying about doing it.
My position on ‘infinite growth’? Supply everyone on earth with all the renewable energy they need to live comfortable modern Eco-city lives, and then the Demographic Transition will stabilise and reduce the population. I=PAT will balance out as the Technology cleans up and the Population comes down.
The Club of Rome has a sister organisation called "Earth 4 All". They study the Demographic Transition factors that stabilise and shrink first world populations. They say the right welfare and education policy settings could reduce the 2050 population peak, and have the population decline to 6 billion by 2100! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/world-population-bomb-may-never-go-off-as-feared-finds-study
So how's that Energy Transition coming along? EV’s are rising so fast the IEA predicts oil demand will peak globally by 2029. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says-2024-06-12/
In a world still STARVING for new energy (let alone replacing old fossil fuel energy) – where only 17% of us live in ‘developed’ or ‘first world nations’ – I’m amazed that only 50 GW of new coal was built last year.
7 TIMES that was build in new solar. That’s 350 GW solar!
Wind was about 110 GW.
Global solar capacity is doubling every 3 years.
“If this growth rate continues, there will be more solar installed in 2031 than all other electricity generation technologies put together.”
https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2024/04/24/fastest-energy-change-article/
It could be 2 to 3 times FASTER than the IPCC’s Paris goals by 2030! https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/
And coal? ”However, the report expects global coal demand to fall by 2.3% by 2026 compared with 2023 levels, even in the absence of governments announcing and implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies. This decline is set to be driven by the major expansion of renewable energy capacity coming online in the three years to 2026.” https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-expected-to-decline-in-coming-years
RENEWABLES ARE ONLY HALF THE ENERGY TRANSITION STORY!
As we Electrify Everything – we’ll end up using less than half the energy we do today. How? Because burning stuff like cavemen wastes 60% of the energy as it wafts away as waste heat and noise and light.
DW (Deutsche Welle news) explains all this in 10 minutes – a good intro. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVJkq4iu7bk
Then there’s Data Scientist Hannah Ritchie:- we’ll do 95% of the stuff we do today on 40% of the energy. https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-energy-efficiency
(I’m still not convinced we’ll have cheap flights – but electric mining, industrial heat, transport etc are all possible – and now becoming easier and easier.)
The bottom line? If anyone tells you “We use blah blah Exa-jouls of fossil fuels a year” remind them gently that we only need 40% of that as we Electrify Everything.
Finally – OF COURSE clean energy is not the whole sustainability story. But it enables the rest of the fixes. Without it, we collapse, period.