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Just Stop Oil? Part 3: 10 Pathways to Post-Growth

August 7, 2023

Recorded July 30th, 2023

Description

In Part 3 of this Frankly Series, Nate (just after watching the movie Oppenheimer!) breaks down the logic of how we COULD arrive at a post-growth future. Our global situation is complex and not static – IF we somehow are able to shrink the global economic output (which would imply significantly less oil use) we first have to navigate ‘the 4 Horsemen of the 2020s’. Nate outlines 10 possible avenues for how this could happen, not as a prescription but as a description of various possible scenarios. The implications of the complexity of our global systems means a path to a world without our current dependence on growth will not be an easy one. Yet understanding these hurdles between our current situation and an eventual post-growth future is essential to shifting the initial conditions of such a global transformation towards ‘better-than-the-default’ outcomes. How do impending and converging risks narrow our options for ways to move towards a different global system – and can we manage to protect the things that make life worth living?

Show Notes

00:00 – Just Stop Oil !? Part 1 + Part 2

00:07 – Oppenheimer

00:50 – Post-growth

01:20 – Reality Roundtable

03:10 – Mordor Economy

03:20 – The Great Simplification

06:16 – Carbon Pulse

06:22 – The monetary system and it’s claim on real resources

07:38 – We’ve increased debt more than GDP every year for the last last 50 years – now between 350-400% Debt to GDP

09:08 – Nate on Geopolitics and Resource conflicts

09:50 – 6 continent supply chain

09:59 – The average supermarket has 100,000 SKU products

10:14 – Comparative Advantage

10:49 – 85% of US medical ingredients are imported

11:10 – Social contract

11:38 – Dick Gephardt + TGS Episode

11:55 – Just Stop Oil

12:05 – Degrowth

12:15 – Renewables will not be able to fully support the growing global energy needs

12:44 – We are hitting an all time high of coal use

13:00 – Renewables are only adding to the grid, but not reducing totally energy use or carbon emissions

13:30 – ⅔ of our emissions are from fossil fuels

14:49 – Jevons Paradox

15:47 – Japan buying 50% of their own government bonds and stocks

17:36 – Untax.org

19:19 – Buckminster Fuller – We’re not going to change the existing situation unless we have something better to look forward to

22:22 – Spite Frankly

More: Global Debt Levels Put Economies And Countries At Risk | Global Finance Magazine (gfmag.com)

Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens is the Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF) an organization focused on educating and preparing society for the coming cultural transition. Allied with leading ecologists, energy experts, politicians and systems thinkers ISEOF assembles road-maps and off-ramps for how human societies can adapt to lower throughput lifestyles.

Nate holds a Masters Degree in Finance with Honors from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont. He teaches an Honors course, Reality 101, at the University of Minnesota.


Tags: fossil fuel dependency, post-growth futures, powering down

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jdmeth
jdmeth
3 years ago

Of course “we” can do anything, Mao, Hitler, and Stalin showed us that. The problem is how do we get it done without massive loss of life. Also how do we get the descendants of Mao and Stalin to go along with what we want to do? Both have shown they have expansionist policies. They are not known for playing nice with others.