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Oil reserve expert claims world faces ‘oversupply of energy’ problem
Chris Stanton, The National (Abu Dhabi)
The world now faces an oversupply, not a shortage of energy, and a peak in oil production is out of sight, according to Nansen Saleri, an oil reserve expert who will bring the contentious peak oil debate to Abu Dhabi this week.
“There’s plenty of energy sources,” he said. “We don’t have an energy shortage problem, we have an energy allocation problem.”
When oil reached a record level above $147 on July 11, peak oil theorists around the world received much attention in the press.
The world’s production of oil had reached a peak and was set to decline, some said, and record prices reflected the supply constraint.
Dr Saleri, the former head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco, will lead a discussion of peak oil at the four-day Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (Adipec), which kicks off today.
(1 November 2008)
ASPO losing its raison d’être?
Luis de Sousa, The Oil Drum: Europe
Original: ASPO VII – final thoughts
The first ASPO conference I attended was in 2006, in Pisa, where it was hosted by Ugo Bardi. While I was there, I had the good fortune to meet Dennis Meadows, a man whose work I have known since I was very young, but which now has much more relevance than I first imagined. During his address, he told us an important thing: As events start unfolding and a general awareness of depletion arises, ASPO will loose its raison d’être.
… ASPO found itself at a crossroads: While not everyone accepts that a peak in world oil production is here now, the general public takes cheap oil as something of the past. More than that, the economic difficulties envisioned as following constraints in oil production growth are here. ASPO must somehow evolve in order to keep a relevant role in Society. And this goes for most of the peak oil awareness movement too. The time is here to move beyond Oil.
Bob Lloyd put the situation in more explicit terms during the speakers reception, “We are facing the first impacts of the problem. A period of time is beginning when Society will be receptive to and will listen for a solution, but this period of time may be very short”. The problem is that there is no “Solution” for the depletion of Fossil Fuels, and ASPO was never was an organization of answers, but of questions. Moreover, it is likely that the problem must be addressed beyond the physical solutions.
But ASPO can be a catalyst, not for a “Solution,” but for new policy strategies and tactics that may help us fare better through the transition away from Fossil Fuels. Facing depletion is not yet at the heart of the political agenda, at every level, from international relations to state executive programs to daily family life. And although energy is becoming a concern for many policy makers, net energy is still pretty not understood, when it should be the lighthouse guiding us through the storm.
While this sort of quasi-academic conference is very fruitful for those of us who take part in it, it may not be now the best way to impact the political agenda. When ASPO started, it made sense to hold an event like this, building the network of scientists, researchers and concerned citizens who are now the fabric of the Association. But now ASPO (and the peak oil movement in general) need to start reaching out directly and frequently to politicians and industry. Some national branches have been able to do this at a regional level, but at the international, even pan-European or pan-American level, it is yet to happen.
I can’t exactly say how this new step for ASPO should be taken. It may be by trying other forms of events, perhaps by focusing more on what’s beyond Oil and beyond Growth. Above all, I feel that ASPO somehow needs to start offering more hope and less gloom. Maybe that way it can find its optimal role for the future.
(1 November 2008)
Good discussion at the original. -BA
Paying the price for cheap oil
Robert Bryce, Guardian
Falling oil prices may seem good to anyone suffering from the economic crisis. But it will actually hurt our long-term interests
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Be careful what you wish for. That’s one of the lessons that should be apparent as the price of oil continues to plunge.
It’s certainly true that falling oil prices are one of the few bits of good news to be had as the US heads into what will likely be a nasty recession. It will be far easier for consumers in the US and elsewhere to weather an economic downturn with oil at $60 a barrel, rather than at $145. But some analysts are suggesting that oil could fall to $50 per barrel, or even lower, and stay at that level for months or even years to come. Such a sustained period of low oil prices could hurt the long-term interests of both the EU and the US.
First, cheap crude will likely short-circuit the push for renewable energy, increase greenhouse gas emissions and slow the push for greater fuel efficiency. We’ve seen this happen before.
… As for climate change, we can argue all day about the appropriate level of global carbon dioxide emissions. But if policymakers really want to decrease carbon dioxide emissions, cheap oil is the last thing they should want, as low-cost motor fuel will allow the US, as well as developing countries like China and India, to keep pounding on the gas pedal.
… A collapse in oil prices would also hammer America’s domestic oil and gas sector. We’ve seen this before, too. In the early 1980s, the smart people in the energy business were convinced that high prices were here to stay. That illusion ended with the oil price crash of 1986, after which drilling rigs and valuable oil field equipment was cut up and sold for scrap. Skilled oilfield workers left the industry for good. Today, the global energy sector continues to struggle with a shortage of skilled talent for nearly all segments of the business, from engineers to welders. A collapse in prices will result in a replay of the 1980s when skilled workers fled the oil and gas business for other industries and never returned.
A collapse in oil prices would increase US reliance on foreign oil, as well.
(31 October 2008)
