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The Iran risk, again (just in time for the election?)
Paul Rogers, openDemocracy
The risk of a conflict between the United States and Iran is, unexpectedly and in a new context, acquiring fresh force. True, the current scenario has elements of the familiar – the recent deployment of two US carrier-battle groups in the Gulf, a pointed reminder to the Tehran government of the extent of Washington’s naval power; and a continuation of arguments over Iranian nuclear ambitions, including inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the imposition of a third layer of sanctions by the United Nations Security Council. What makes the latest phase of tension between Washington and Tehran different, however, is the influence on US calculations of its predicament in Iraq and Afghanistan – and, in particular, of the upsurge in violence in March-April 2008 in Basra and Baghdad.
… These developments do not make a conflict with Iran inevitable. They do, however, suggest that “something” is being considered. The most likely action might be some kind of “demonstration” air-strike against a Revolutionary Guard base close to the Iraqi border. This need not be imminent; it might well be deliberately timed for late summer.
A US decision to launch such a high-profile, symbolic and calculated attack would also explode into the middle of the campaign for the presidency. The more likely beneficiary would be John McCain rather than his Democratic challenger, since any escalation of tensions with Iran tends to mobilise public and media sentiment behind the Republican, establishment and military currents in American politics.
A military confrontation with Iran, however limited in Washington’s design, will have incalculable consequences in the region (see “America and Iran: the spark of war”, 20 September 2007). Iran – as earlier columns in this series have suggested – is an agent in this overall situation, and will respond in accordance with its own perceived interests by using the range of possibilities at its command (see “The United States and Iran: the logic of war”, 1 February 2007). The attack will also reinforce the position of Iran’s hardliners.
In January 2009, the new US president will be obliged to pick up the pieces of a complex conflict that American action against Iran will have exacerbated But the desired domestic political effect will be secured, in the prolongation of Republican control of the White House. And the “long war” will have entered a new and even more dangerous phase.
Paul Rogers is professor of peace studies at Bradford University, northern England.
(8 May 2008)
Portrait of an Oil-Addicted Former Superpower
Michael Klare, TomDispatch
How Rising Oil Prices Are Obliterating America’s Superpower Status
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Nineteen years ago, the fall of the Berlin Wall effectively eliminated the Soviet Union as the world’s other superpower. Yes, the USSR as a political entity stumbled on for another two years, but it was clearly an ex-superpower from the moment it lost control over its satellites in Eastern Europe.
Less than a month ago, the United States similarly lost its claim to superpower status when a barrel crude oil roared past $110 on the international market, gasoline prices crossed the $3.50 threshold at American pumps, and diesel fuel topped $4.00. As was true of the USSR following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the USA will no doubt continue to stumble on like the superpower it once was; but as the nation’s economy continues to be eviscerated to pay for its daily oil fix, it, too, will be seen by increasing numbers of savvy observers as an ex-superpower-in-the-making.
That the fall of the Berlin Wall spelled the erasure of the Soviet Union’s superpower status was obvious to international observers at the time. After all, the USSR visibly ceased to exercise dominion over an empire (and an associated military-industrial complex) encompassing nearly half of Europe and much of Central Asia. The relationship between rising oil prices and the obliteration of America’s superpower status is, however, hardly as self-evident. So let’s consider the connection.
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and author of the just-released Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (Metropolitan Books). A documentary film based on his previous book, Blood and Oil, is available from the Media Education Foundation and can be ordered at bloodandoilmovie.com. A brief video of Klare discussing key subjects in his new book can be viewed by clicking here.
(8 May 2008)
Intro by Tom Engelhardt. Also posted at Gristmill
