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Peak oil meeting mostly discouraging (podcast)
John Kingston, Platts
Record high crude oil prices were a particularly hot topic at the annual meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas.
In this podcast, John Kingston, director of oil [at Platts], attended the ASPO meeting in Houston and reports on the theories of peak oil and the timeliness of the meeting in regards to high crude oil prices.
(23 October 2007)
Go to original article for podcast. Oil journalist Kingston did not like the message presented at at the ASPO meeting, but he did his job as a journalist and reported on the subject fairly. He was struck by the variety of participants, both old-time environmentalists and people from the oil industry. -BA
Blogorithm
MOBJECTIVIST
For those wishing to seek out non-replenishable energy news, The Oil Drum surpassed quality of content over PeakOil.com long ago. In particular, TOD remains the only practical place to hash out arguments and develop what I call blogorithms and other models to predict evolving energy usage (shoot me for pinching this term from a fundie anti-science web site). I can’t say that TOD has become the cat’s pajamas of energy discussion, but you typically know you have a good thing going when someone starts attacking your approach.
As a case in point consider this commentary, A Terrifying Prospect, courtesy of TOD.
These factors have led to criticism of the modelling methods of peak oil theorists. Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a US-based energy consultancy, is damning in its assessment, saying that peak oil theory is garbage. Highly-respected (???) energy economist Michael Lynch has described peak oil theorists as practising pseudo-science and claims that: “The quantitative models used by peak oil theorists would earn a university student in elementary statistics a failing grade”.
Lynch also questions the quality of peak oil research, noting that nearly all of it has been published on the internet rather than in peer-reviewed journals.
I will call this quote of Lynch’s a keeper, and use it as a yardstick for how far we have progressed. I know for certain that Lynch means PeakOil.com or TOD when he refers to the “quality” of internet-only research, recalling several on-line discussions I had with Mr. Lynch himself at PO. And with even more certitude, I assert that Lynch exhibits pure projection in accusing us of practicing pseudo-science. He, not us, lacks the peer review in his published work; I dare anyone to find an article of his that goes beyond rhetorical flourishes. Failing grade, my foot — the role of pseudo-statistician really would fit much better on Lynch’s foot.
(23 October 2007)
I agree with MOBJECTIVIS about the high quality of argumentation on The Oil Drum and sites like the various ASPOs. There are few peak oil skeptics who regularly post their arguments, and CERA keeps their peak oil report behind a very expensive paywall. Probably the best skeptics are the technical people at the oil companies, and nowadays they seem less and less skeptical. Their arguments about technical innovations seem to have become footnotes in a general peak oil thesis. -BA
Oil falls on poor Wall Street earnings
Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg News via IHT
…Declining oil prices are not likely to become the norm in coming decades, according to a research group in Germany. World oil output peaked last year and will decline by more than half by 2030, according to Energy Watch Group, a German network of scientists and members of Parliament.
Oil production hit a high of 81 million barrels a day in 2006 and will drop to 58 million barrels a day by 2020 and 39 million barrels a day by 2030, the group said. Energy Watch joins the investor T. Boone Pickens, chairman of the Dallas-based BP Capital, who expects world oil output to plateau soon and eventually decline, known as peak oil theory.
“The oil price we’re seeing now is only the beginning,” Hans-Josef Fell, a member of Parliament who founded the group, said at a London news conference Monday. “Oil’s uneven distribution could be the cause of wars.”
The group’s forecast is more extreme than some members of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil because it minimizes production gains from new technologies including gas-to-liquids, enhanced oil recovery or increased heavy-oil production. It also presumes nations like Iraq, where oil production has been curbed by war, will not return to previous production levels.
Critics said that it was impossible to know when petroleum output has peaked because of the impact of prices on production, and technological advances like deep-water drilling.
(25 October 2007)
Crude Oil Rises on Falling U.S. Stockpiles, New Iran Sanctions
Mark Shenk, Bloomberg
Crude-oil supplies fell 5.29 million barrels to 316.6 million, the lowest since January, according to yesterday’s Energy Department report. New U.S. sanctions against Iran, warnings of a Turkish assault on Kurdish militants in Iraq and a falling dollar also pushed prices higher today.
“It all comes down to the fact that there’s not enough oil in the world,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “You can tell by the outsized reaction to any bullish headline. This morning, the additional sanctions seem to be a catalyst.”
… “The U.S. has had sanctions against Iran since 1979 and it’s not like we are just hearing for the first time about Turkey’s intention to rout the Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq,” said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. “What the headlines do is keep these issues front and center for anyone trading in this market.”
(25 October 2007)
Contributor Marc writes:
This would be just another Bloomberg article if it weren’t for the second paragraph of the story, and the quote contained therein:
“It all comes down to the fact that there’s not enough oil in the world,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “You can tell by the outsized reaction to any bullish headline. This morning, the additional sanctions seem to be a catalyst.”
This is two days after Bloomberg ran an article on T. Boone Pickens and his assertion that global oil production had peaked. So far it seems Bloomberg is more comfortable conveying the peak oil message through quotes attributed to others rather than an editorial stance of their own, but the fact that they are conveying it at all is, in my opinion, and major shift and step forward on their part. Bloomberg is about as establishment as it gets, and the reality of peak oil and underlying supply issues seem to be reaching them at long last.
Oil hits record above $90 on OPEC report
John Wilen, Associated Press
NEW YORK – Oil futures jumped to a new record close of $90.46 a barrel Thursday on news that OPEC production increases aren’t coming as fast as expected and that the cartel won’t announce new output quotas when it meets next month.
Prices rose in early trading on growing concerns about conflict in the Middle East and declining supplies of crude in the U.S. They got a further boost after Dow Jones Newswires reported that Oil Movements, a company that tracks oil tanker traffic, said crude shipments from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members will grow more slowly than anticipated through early November.
Meanwhile, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri told The Wall Street Journal Asia the cartel is not in discussions to boost production by 500,000 barrels.
…On Wednesday, crude prices jumped sharply after the Energy Information Administration reported that oil inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels last week, much more than analysts expected.
(25 October 2007)
Shell chief blames speculators for oil price
Angela Jameson, UK Times
Finance director says that speculation and political tension lies behind record oil prices as Shell limits profits slide to 8%
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A leading oil industry executive has blamed speculators for driving the price of oil to record highs.
Peter Voser, finance director of Shell, said that he believed that soaring oil prices were being driven by speculation and political tension, not a lack of supply.
“We find it hard to explain oil at $100 a barrel. I don’t see anyone queing for fuel and nor are there any physical shortages,” Mr Voser said.
“The price seems to be driven by some speculation and also has a political premium in it, rather than actually some of the fundamental drivers,” he added.
The comments are the first time that a Western oil company executive has appeared to agree with the view of the OPEC exporters’ group that oil’s surge to a record high largely reflects speculative trading.
(25 October 2007)
