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Peak oil means peak economy – Hirsch (podcast)
David Strahan, The Last Oil Shock
When global oil production peaks, the economy is likely to shrink in direct proportion to dwindling fuel supplies, says Dr Robert Hirsch of the thinktank SAIC.
Speaking at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference in Houston, he also warned that as peak approaches, producer countries including OPEC and Russia are likely to husband their reserves for future generations and limit exports, potentially sharpening the decline in oil available to importing nations.
Dr Hirsch is the author of a groundbreaking report for the US Department of Energy which highlighted the long lead-times and other limitations of purely supply-side responses to peak oil. In an interview with lastoilshock.com on the sidelines of the Houston conference, he went on to argue that fuel rationing will be an essential part of any policy response, and predicted that such measures would be introduced even in the United States.
Listen to the interview with Robert Hirsch.
(18 October 2007)
Houston ASPO – the Workshop day
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
…With getting here a little late I walked into the first joint sessions after they had started, and, as with the ASPO in Cork, the atmosphere immediately conveyed that the meeting would be a success. (Though the initial judgment was made because I had to drop my bag and lean against the wall since there were no free seats, and when more were brought they were still not enough).
The audience was obviously knowledgeable and the questions were technical, as were the answers.
For the first “Workshop” day the sessions were divided, with TOD stalwarts Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns giving the story of their incredible detective work in, as an audience member put it, developing the story of Saudi oil with virtually none of the resources or computing power of Aramco, and yet coming very close to what has to be the real story. Stuart explained how the numbers that he, and others at TOD, had put together and painted the picture of Ghawar depletion, (which is in the citation so I won’t repeat it) and Euan put this in the broader context of Saudi Arabia in general.
Gail Tverberg acted as moderator to the session and the discussion. Perhaps the crux of the issue is that the authors do not think that Saudi Aramco can produce the volumes that they claim for Ghawar since, in part they assume a higher recovery factor that has been historically true for this type of rock, and with around half the production gone, things are not looking all that good. Reference was made in questions to other papers coming in the meeting that will bring further light to the topic, including such a comment from Matt Simmons.
(18 October 2007)
The time remaining for serious action on energy is short
Norm Erickson, Post Bulletin (Rochester, NY)
Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, Minn., just hosted its 43rd Nobel Conference. The theme this year was “Heating up the energy debate.”
Here are some highlights.
…Ken Deffeyes, geologist and a professor of geosciences, emeritus at Princeton University, discussed the rapid depletion of crude oil. The global discovery of conventional crude oil peaked in 1964 and production peaked in 2005, according to Deffeyes. The upward trend in oil prices we are now experiencing is a natural outcome of growing global demand and depleting reserves.
Competition to secure access to the remaining reserves on is underway between large consuming nations such as Russia, India, the U.S., Canada, Japan and the European Union.
The rapid loss of Arctic ice has led nations to lay claims to possible energy reserves under the thinning polar ice cap. Deffeyes said more than 100 deep-sea holes have been drilled elsewhere and no oil has been found. A set of special conditions are all required to produce oil and natural gas reserves and most of the planet never had all of them. There may be no significant reserves beneath the Arctic ocean
Deffeyes noted that the time remaining for serious action on energy is relatively short, perhaps five years. The path we have been on will likely lead to war and famine, but, we still have choices in that regard.
Norm Erickson of Rochester is a retired IBM technical educator who has spent years studying the world’s fuel supplies.
(18 October 2007)
