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Interactive depletion atlas
David Strahan, The Last Oil Shock
Go to the original link. Roll your mouse over the country you want to find out about. For an up to date country analysis from Energyfiles, click to zoom in, then click on [the icon] . Right click to zoom out.
Doesn’t seem to be anything like it anywhere else on the web, and it ought to be a useful quick reference for anyone interested in the subject.
Created by the author of the recently published book The Last Oil Shock, recently reviewed by Ugo Bardi of ASPO-Italia and by Larry Elliot at the Guardian.
(26 April 2007)
Analyst peaks interest on decreasing oil supply (Matthew Simmons)
Tim Lajoie, The New Hampshire
…[Matthew] Simmons, a banking and investment advisor to the oil industry for approximately 38 years, was the latest speaker in UNH’s Discovery program Power to the People, which focuses on energy use. In the past, Simmons served as a key advisor to the Bush administration, as a part of Vice President Dick Cheney’s Energy Task Force.
While the United States may not have a clear-cut “Plan B” to deal with the peak oil problem, Simmons does believe there are ways to help. He pointed to conservation as the most effective way to combat the energy crisis, but said that it needs global implementation. Also, Simmons believes that many alternative energy sources, such as algae, ocean and bio-waste energy will help the world with clean and efficient power. Simmons warned that other alternative energies may not be as they appear.
“Many alternative energy sources are energy intensive,” he said. “Corn-based energy is a scam; it’s very energy-intensive.” Simmons also pointed out that nuclear power plants must run for 15 years before they can produce enough energy to replace the energy used to build the plant itself.
“New supply sources are important, but they cannot fill the energy gap,” Simmons added.
Simmons partially blames the oil industry for the energy crisis resulting from peak oil. The oil industry, he said, was run with an attitude that the oil in the Middle East would last forever. The oil industry also believed that oil would be cheap forever. In reality, peaking was a surprise to most oil firms, as there was little to no data on the issue.
“It was a religion that was faith-based, not fact based,” Simmons said. “We’re flying blind. Since we don’t have the data we stay in the dark.”
…Although Simmons sees peak oil as the most immediate issue facing the world, many audience members asked questions relating peak oil to other issues, including global warming and the current presidential election.
Simmons responded by expressing his concern that this issue was being ignored. One of the few candidates who have approached Simmons is former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, whom Simmons personally met with to discuss the issue. Simmons also mentioned that the former mayor of New York City, Rudolph Giuliani, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson have also expressed concern over the issue.
First and foremost, Simmons believes that if the peak oil issue is not addressed, the world could descend into chaos with the “bullies” hoarding resources.
“I can tell you right now that’s how wars get started,” Simmons said.
(27 April 2007)
From the student newspaper.
Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Rebound Effect
Jeff Vail, The Oil Drum
Is the push for greater energy efficiency a good policy choice to address energy scarcity after Peak Oil? Here’s a bold answer: NO, at least not in a vacuum. Efficiency is not a standalone solution, but part of the much more complex problem of reducing total energy consumption that must address Jevon’s Paradox and the Rebound Effect.
Jevon’s Paradox tells us that when we increase the efficiency of the use of a resource, we initially decrease the demand for that resource, but that ultimately this lower demand reduces price, which causes a “rebound” of increasing demand. When applied specifically to energy efficiency, this is commonly referred to as the “Rebound Effect.”
Here’s a real-world example. Let’s magically double the average fuel economy of America’s cars and trucks. Gasoline demand would drop immediately by 50%. This would affect the supply-demand equilibrium of gasoline, reducing its price significantly. However, with dramatically lower gas prices, many people would choose to drive more than they had in the past-this is the “rebound,” where some of the energy savings provided by gains in efficiency are negated by the corresponding effect on energy prices. Clearly, a 50% drop in gas prices won’t result in the average American doubling their driving, as would be required to completely negate the efficiency gains in this scenario. Even if gas was free, there would be some limit to how much we would drive. So this “rebound effect” doesn’t negate the entirety of energy savings due to efficiency. Studies suggest that it erases perhaps 10%-30% of the gains.
(26 April 2007)
Sharon Astyk has comments:
I’ve argued in the past that Jevons’ Paradox (explained over at Jeff’s article) is, in fact, not inevitable, but a cultural result. Or rather, I think that Jevon’s Paradox will always limit to some degree the return you get from conservation and culture change, but you can minimize its effect.
Fuelling projects at a high price
Financial Times via Gulf News
…Governments across the Middle East are looking to use their energy resources to attract new industries – often energy-intensive – and diversify their economic base.
Colin Lothian, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are among those who will have to consider whether they have the proven resources both to fuel new industries and cater for growing domestic consumption.
All four could eventually face gas shortages, according to Wood Mackenzie, as they seek to sustain development plans.
In the late 1990s Oman, believing it had ample gas resources, encouraged the establishment of fertiliser plants and an aluminium smelter, but today faces a supply-demand gap, Lothian says, as development of new gas supplies failed to live up to expectations.
Qatar, which boasts some of the world’s largest known gas reserves, recently announced a moratorium on the development of gas projects from its North Field until it completes a review to assess its reserves.
In Saudi Arabia, a petrochemicals project has stalled due to a lack of gas supply, Lothian says.
These countries are reliant on gas for power generation and water desalination plants and many have oil projects that rely on gas re-injection to maintain and increase oil production. Large volumes of gas are also required for gas recycling and extracting high value from the natural gas liquids produced.
Now growing industrial demand is competing for future supply. “The most important factor in this equation is the huge rush by the whole manufacturing world to go to where energy sources are, because of what has been happening in the last three or four years on the energy side,” Rachid says.
(26 April 2007)
Contributor Jeffrey J. Brown writes: “More problems for energy exports.”
Video review: It’s a Crude Awakening
Brian Givson, Vue (Edmonton, Canada)
…Basil Gelpke’s and Ray McCormack’s A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash doesn’t start off too reasonably-“Oil is the excrement of the devil” sounds like The Exorcist does environmentalism-but then it lays down its jigsaw pieces. As the puzzle interlocks, the composite truth is terrifying.
There are chilling stats: construction of a computer consumes 10 times its weight in fuel; each calorie we eat requires 10 times the carbon energy; world population exploded with the rise of oil, now insanely cheaper than bottled water. Chirpy ’40s, ’50s and ’60s ads offer a haunted house ride through American Dreaminess-“the pump knows no midnight,” a voice gushes. Before/after shots reveal Alberta’s future: iron horses that once bobbed their heads in McCamey, Texas, coming up full, now rust away in stillness; the black-gold boomtown of Baku in Central Asia has become a wasteland of metal skeletons.
…The End of Suburbia (2004) more clearly and cumulatively tracked our history of oil use, crucially linking it to North America’s suburban sprawl, car fetish, commuter culture and poor urban planning. Gelpke and McCormack largely slick past these ideas and take too short a drive down the West’s blind gasoline alley (the 5 per cent of the world that is American consumes 25 per cent of oil supply).
…What Western environmental docs keep shutting their eyes to is that it’s the “developing world,” which until recently hasn’t relied on oil, where much hope lies-from bicycles and local markets to crank radios and small-scale environmental stewardship, the supposedly poorest and weakest have shone a half-light on sustainable living for the tank-guzzling rest of us.
(April 2007)
