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Apart from used chip fat, there is no such thing as a sustainable biofuel
George Monbiot, Guardian
Even capitalists now admit the oil crisis is real. But their solutions border on lunacy as they avoid the obvious answer
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Now they might start sitting up. They wouldn’t listen to the environmentalists or even the geologists. Can governments ignore the capitalists? A report published last week by Citibank, and so far unremarked on by the media, proposes “genuine difficulties” in increasing the production of crude oil, “particularly after 2012”. Though 175 big drilling projects will start in the next four years, “the fear remains that most of this supply will be offset by high levels of decline”. The oil industry has scoffed at the notion that oil supplies might peak, but “recent evidence of failed production growth would tend to shift the burden of proof on to the producers”, as they have been unable to respond to the massive rise in prices. “Total global liquid hydrocarbon production has essentially flatlined since mid 2005 at just north of 85m barrels per day.”
The issue is complicated, as ever, by the refusal of the Opec cartel to raise production. What has changed, Citibank says, is that the non-Opec countries can no longer answer the price signal. Does this mean that oil production in these nations has already peaked? If so, what do our governments intend to do?
Nine months ago, I asked the British government to send me its assessments of global oil supply. The results astonished me: there weren’t any. Instead it relied exclusively on one external source: a book published by the International Energy Agency. The omission became stranger still when I read this book and discovered that it was a crude polemic, dismissing those who questioned future oil supplies as “doomsayers” without providing robust evidence to support its conclusions
(12 February 2008)
Cantarell Update & Production Projection
M. Payne, Peak Opportunities
On February 7, 2008 the respected oil and gas industry trade magazine Oil and Gas Journal published an update on the production from Mexico’s largest oil fields. Ironically, this comes two years and a day from the original Wall Street Journal article (2/6/06) heralding the pending decline of the world’s second largest oil field – Cantarell, located in Mexico.
The data for the Oil and Gas Journal article was reportedly sourced from El Financero newspaper. Although the discussion in the article hops back and forth between big Mexican oil fields, the bottom-line is that the article contains many useful “numbers”, including some new information on the expected decline characteristics of Cantarell.
Quoting the article, “According to Sener, the 2007 – 16 Crude Oil Market Outlook prepared by the Energy Information System of the Energy Secretariat, in any scenario – high or low – Cantarell’s production will average 917,000 – 921,000 b/d during 2006-16, with an average annual decline of 14.1 %.”
This is the first I’ve seen of a quoted, long-term decline rate estimate for Cantarell, and given the initial production rate, one can use that decline rate to derive a production projection. I was encouraged to do so given the quoted “average rate” for an 11 year period (an average rate being non-sensical in this case, and thus a tip off for further study needed). Also, just yesterday I gave one of my sons the classic book, “How to Lie with Statistics”, so the dangers in “averages” were fresh on my mind.
So, given the quoted 14.1% annual decline rate and using an initial production rate of 1.9 million barrels per day going into 2006, the following production projection was derived: …
(10 February 2008)
About blog author M. Payne:
Upstream oil and gas professional with over 25 years of experience. Past Chairman, Houston Chapter of the American Petroleum Institute (API). Member of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), American Solar Energy Society (ASES).
Peak oil on ABC-Australia’s Counterpoint (audio)
Michael Duffy and Paul Comrie-Thomson, Counterpoint/ABC
Will the world’s oil supply run out in the foreseeable future? Peak oil theory states that we are on the verge of an oil supply crisis but is this the case?
Guest Derek Brower is a UK journalist who covers energy politics
(11 February 2008)
Direct link to audio
Articles by Derek Brower at Prospect Magazine.
About Derek Brower
EB contributor Lionel Orford writes:
Writer Derek Brower has recently reviewed A Crude Awakening and says it’s bunk. Counterpoint is an Australian ABC Radio National program, which I often find annoying as it gives air time to climate change deniers and other people with a view that goes against the main stream scientific view and almost always supports the ‘business as usual’ mind set. These people are generally free to give their opinion on Counterpoint without any challenge from the opposing point of view. This is certainly the case here.
The misunderstandings or misrepresentations he gets away with here are numerous:
- Peak Oil believers are “sort of a doomsday cult”, “unreconstructed Marxists”, “discontented with modern life”, “who don’t like cars”
- Peak Oil theory doesn’t take into consideration the change in size of reserves (he describes reserve growth, a concept he claims is not grasped by PO theorists)
- Peak Oil theory doesn’t take into consideration the effect of market forces (he says higher price means more oil discovered and recoverable, another simple concept he claims is not grasped by PO theorists)
- The oil industry (particularly OPEC) benefits from PO (Is he implying that they are promoting PO theory?)
His thesis can be summarized as “the stone age didn’t end because of a lack of stones” – the market will ensure that we just move on to something better as oil gets too expensive. He sees no problem with the transition – we’ll simply get our engineers to invent something better. (UPDATE Feb 12 – revised comments at Lionel’s request)
BA:
Listened to the interview – I didn’t have quite the strong reaction that Lionel did. I don’t think Derek Bower has any vested interest in his skepticism, and I suspect that if he does further investigation, he may change his mind (as have a number of other energy journalists). Bower does believe that oil production will peak at some point, and he is in favor of developing green alternatives to oil. He seems genuinely puzzled by the nature of the peak oil movement and finds it hard to put it into a pigeonhole.
ASPO-USA looking for executive director
Rick Block, ASPO-USA (email)
ASPO-USA is looking for a qualified individual for the job of full-time Executive Director to take the young, influential non-profit, with rising national recognition, to the next level. The Executive Director will start with a largely volunteer group and grow it into a staffed organization conducting education/outreach programs about America’s energy challenge. It is expected that within a year the Executive Director will become the recognized public voice for ASPO-USA. Further, it is hoped that eventually the Executive Director will become one of the leading voices nationally on the subjects of peak oil and gas in particular and on our broader energy challenges in general.
(12 February 2008)
You Vote: What Megabubble Will Be The Next To Bring Us Down
Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch via Fox Business
… The main alternative [to Eric Janszen’s article “The Next Bubble”] is “Peak Oil” theory, which the world’s Exxon-Mobils hate. “Peak Oil” forecasts a different end game. Janszen’s theory simply predicts America’s economy will “creatively self-destruct” in 2013 while Wall Street is busy creating a newer, bigger bubble. In marked contrast, “Peak Oil” forecasts:
A “not-so-creative destruction” of the oil industry The end of Wall Street’s “bubble-blowing machine” A steady decline of the oil-dependent global economy Widespread resources wars intensifying through the 21st century
Doom and gloom? Certainly among investors in the world’s Exxon-Mobils. But before dismissing “Peak Oil,” read a few books like: “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock & the World Economy,” “A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash,” “The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous World,” and others exposing “Big Oil’s” rosy estimates of inexhaustible oil reserves, new exploration technologies, geopolitics conflicts and, above all, the inability of supply-side scenarios to meet demand as the global population bubble explodes in the 21st century. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
Also see “The End of the Oil Age” in the latest Bloomberg Markets. It forecasts the peak in 2018, after that demand outruns supply. For more on “Peak Oil,” check out lifeaftertheoilcrash.net with an open mind: “Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists, bankers and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global ‘Peak Oil.'”
(11 February 2008)
The Five Big Questions Investors Must Ask Every Day: #1 – When Does Peak Oil Arrive?
Energy Tech Stocks
…The concept of peak oil is rapidly going mainstream, and every investor should be thankful it is, because the question “When does peak oil arrive?” is the single biggest driver of new energy technology, even more important than fear about global warming, which polls show is of concern to people but not enough for them to make significant lifestyle changes.
Without persistent questions about how much longer the oil will last, there wouldn’t be a concerted global effort to develop cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel and plug-in electric hybrid vehicles – three of the biggest areas of opportunity for investors.
(11 February 2008)
All this coming week, EnergyTechStocks.com is running a series built around what it considers the 5 big questions people need to ask themselves every day. Other stories in this series:
Tuesday: Can We Avoid Using More Coal?
Wednesday: When Will Cellulosic Ethanol be Ready?
Thursday: Will Fraud Ruin Carbon Trading?
Friday: A Plug-in Electric Vehicle in Every Garage?
Science Debate Is Set; Now, Will Candidates Come?
Andrew C. Revkin, Dot Earth (via New York Times)
The organizers of a proposed science and technology debate among the presidential candidates have set a date, April 18, and place, the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia. This would be four days before the Pennsylvania primary.
The group, ScienceDebate2008.com, has sent invitations to each of the remaining candidates.
Now the big question is whether their handlers will allow them to engage the thorniest scientific issues – like the dribble of money that the United States has invested in energy research through Republican and Democratic administrations and Congresses;
… In an e-mail and then a phone chat today, Shawn Otto, the CEO of Science Debate, Inc., which was set up to make the event happen, said the main goal was to get the candidates to explore how an invigorated science and technology enterprise could form the foundation for sustained, and sustainable, economic activity.
Here’s an excerpt from the email:
… This debate is about your pocketbook, it’s about your job, it’s about whether you can still afford health care, whether we’re going to do something about climate change or not, what kind of world your kids are going to be living in in ten or fifteen years, how are we going to respond to peak oil, where is the next transistor economy going to come from? Everybody knows these investments spin off economic engines – the transistor and Google are two examples….
(11 February 2008)
Emphasis added.
