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Peak oil is, like, so over. Not!
Jerome a Paris, European Tribune
Quite simply, prices dropped this month because a number of people had bet on these prices going much higher this summer on the basis of various plausible scenarios (hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, tension with Iran, a longer war in Lebanon). None of these things happened, and those that had speculated had to unwind their positions and take their losses, which accelerated the fall.
That drop was a short-term, market-driven event that changes nothing to the long term perspective. Even a recession in the US will not be enough to curb worldwide demand growth: demand may stagnate in North America, and grow less quickly in emerging countries, but 5% growth in China, Russia or Saudia Arabia (instead of 10% growth) still means a lot of new oil demand each year.
So don’t expect me to give up on my series yet.
In fact, the fierceness of the attacks on the peak oil theme, which was beginning to get traction in the media earlier this year, shows how unwilling our societies are to undertake any change in that respect. Which simply means that prices WILL have to go up much higher to force the inevitable changes on us. It’ll just be more painful for us, is all. So we should not rejoice that energy gets off the radar screen for a while again.
(1 Oct 2006)
Number 32 in Jerome’s series “Countdown to $100 oil”. Also at Daily Kos.
Oil: Our present and future (Kuwait)
Fouad Al-Obaid, Kuwait Times
A drastic drop in the prices of oil could have a serious impact on Kuwait. As much as we would love to rely on oil as a sole source of income, it is evident that both expanding expenditure along with a retracting income will have its effect on the local economy
…How much more oil do we have? This simple question will have a drastic impact on how the government will or should use the remaining oil revenue.
Elaborating on the later concept, it is clear that oil is something that will not last forever, and as much as I would love to believe the official oil figures, I think that to-date one needs to distinguish between wishful thinking and actual facts.
Once we will have established a clear inventory of how much oil we have left, it will be great time that we start restructuring the economy using the oil available to kickstart a new series of economic diversification schemes.
…I think that today the question is not if we need to diversify-but rather how and when will we start to be serious in changing the current status-quo? I am no guru and I suppose that only time will tell. However I believe that we need to get our act together and soon before we start heading for real trouble..
(1 Oct 2006)
Al Gore on peak oil
David Room, Global Public Media
In June 2005, Al Gore spoke at World Environment Day in San Francisco, California. Following the presentation, Dave Room of Energy Preparedness asked him his thoughts on peak oil and how it relates to global warming.
(4 June 2005, but just posted)
Update on Peak Oil and Beyond (audio)
Matthew Simmons, Financial Sense Online
Simmons consoles listeners that the rest of the world is no better prepared than the US, takes apart the hype over Chevrons deep-GOM discovery, and deplores the casual guessing at global reserves he has seen at senior levels. Goes on to discuss what he sees as solutions and mention that his book Twilight in the Desert has been translated and will be published in China next year.-LJ
(30 Sept 2006)
