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As gas prices soar, Democrats ready for political profit
Linda Feldmann, Christian Science Monitor
Republicans, worried about midterm elections and voter ire, hold bad field position.
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WASHINGTON – As a political issue, it’s difficult to overestimate the impact of high gasoline prices. For Republicans, who control both Congress and the White House, good news on the economy’s big picture seems to fade into the background as motorists fume over the cost of a fill-up.
For Democrats, the only political danger may come if voters feel the party appears too gleeful at Americans’ pain. But for now, the party has been handed an issue that’s almost a sure winner as it seeks to retake Congress in the fall midterms, analysts say.
“It’s hard to overstate the pocketbook impact” of gas prices, says John Mercurio, senior editor of the Hotline, National Journal’s political newsletter. “The Democratic Party senses a perfect storm in scoring political points on this issue.”
He believes prices would have to fall below $2.50 a gallon for the issue to lose its impact. And what if prices reach $4? That’s a “nightmare for Republicans,” says Hotline editor in chief Chuck Todd.
As much as GOP politicians strived last week to shift at least some blame to Democrats, arguing that they blocked energy legislation in Congress for years, there’s no sign the public is buying that argument.
(1 May 2006)
Related from Time: Who Wins and Loses When Gas Prices Skyrocket?.
Congress Declares War On Big Oil
Dr Joe Duarte, Kollar Market Analytics
Danger is rising for the energy industry as Congress has found a cause as midterm elections near. This is an interesting development, since Exxon Mobil and BP have reported less than expected results, raising the question as to why Congress is suddenly reviewing oil company financial statements, when it is possible that oil company profits and revenues may have peaked for this cycle.
In yet another sign that a potential change in the oil markets is coming, Congress is increasingly aggressive in its rhetoric and potential action against oil companies.
The rising hostility has been brought about by record profits reported by the majors, as gasoline prices have risen to record prices resulting from a perfect storm in the oil markets.
The sentiment against big oil is best summarized by the Quotation Of The Day in the New York Times: [“Nobody has any sympathy for oil companies on Capitol Hill right now. You talk to someone driving to work in an F-150 pickup and paying $75 to fill up his tank, and everybody’s on his side.” JACK KINGSTON, a Republican congressman from Georgia.]
(30 April 2006)
Gas pump geopolitics
Thomas L. Friedman, NY TImes via True Blue Liberal
…The beginning of leadership for the president is to tell the American people the truth: This is not your parents’ energy crisis. The price of oil is not soaring just because of greedy oil companies. It is soaring because of structural changes in the global energy market that could have vast consequences for America and the world if we do not respond in a comprehensive manner.
Toward that end, we need a tax on gasoline at the pump that will keep prices around $4 a gallon (still roughly $1 less than most Europeans pay), or we need a tax on vehicles that will make gas guzzlers prohibitively costly and hybrids and smaller cars enormously attractive. The sooner and the more we take the price of gasoline up – and keep it there – the sooner we can bring it down forever. If we want to make wind, solar and biomass more competitive, gasoline has to cost more, not less.
…Yes, the president has wasted so much time, but if he finally rises to this challenge, Democrats – who should have taken the lead on this issue a long time ago – have got to work with him. If the Democrats shirk this energy challenge, as the Republicans have, I’m certain there is going to be a third party in the 2008 election. It is going to be called the Geo-Green Party, and it is going to win a lot of centrist voters. The next Ross Perot will be green.
(28 April 2006)
Discussion about the article at The Oil Drum.
Bush leverage with Russia, Iran, China falls as oil prices rise
Brendan Murray, Bloomberg via common Dreams
President George W. Bush, already weakened at home by the soaring cost of oil, is finding that it’s also eroding his ability to achieve his foreign-policy goals.
“It’s a geopolitical nightmare,” says William Cohen, a former Republican senator from Maine and defense secretary under President Bill Clinton who is now chairman of the Cohen Group, a Washington-based consulting firm. Such nations as Iran, Russia and China “don’t see us as the colossus that can cause them any harm, either by our economy or by our prestige.”
Record-high energy prices are weakening Bush’s prospects of assembling an international coalition to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They are diminishing his chances of influencing energy-rich nations such as Russia and isolating troublesome ones including Venezuela and Sudan. And they are straining U.S. economic and diplomatic ties with China, whose oil needs are skyrocketing.
Prices show no signs of abating in the last two-and-a-half years of Bush’s presidency, with oil futures hovering near $72 a barrel through the November 2008 presidential election. That’s creating a windfall for oil-producing nations that may thwart Bush’s goal of promoting democracy and free markets from Asia to the Middle East and halting the spread of nuclear arms.
Bush acknowledged last week that high oil prices have decreased the U.S.’s power to sway events.
“Some of the nations we rely on for oil have unstable governments or agendas that are hostile to the United States,” he said in an April 25 speech to ethanol producers in Washington. “These countries know we need their oil, and that reduces our influence.”
(1 May 2006)
