I published a paper on April 6 highlighting a recent report by the Department of Defense ( Joint Operating Environment for 2010 ) which focused on an impending energy crisis — a lack of oil production sufficient to meet global demand.

Following this paper, backed in particular by the Guardian, an American surfer [Energy Bulletin reader Chris A.] had the good idea to look at the previous report of the United States Joint Forces Command, the Joint Operating Environment for 2008 .

Surprisingly, the report published two years ago already offered the same diagnosis, word for word (p. 17):

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.

The authors – anonymous – of the 2008 report specified:

The implications for future conflict are ominous. If the major developed and developing states do not undertake a massive expansion of production and refining capabilities, a severe energy crunch is inevitable.

We find virtually the same analysis in the new report in March 2010.

So far, neither the press nor the specialized sites had seen pass this diagnosis very worrying.

I hope I can soon tell you more about the origin of the data put forward by the Pentagon …