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ODAC Newsletter - Apr 16

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.” Such is the summary not of ODAC, ITPOES or ASPO, but of the United States Joint Forces Command. Their annual report, known as the JOE (Joint Operating Environment) is intended to inform the development and outlook of the US armed forces. The report points to growing energy demand in the developing world, citing as an example the huge potential for growth in car ownership in China, which currently has only 40 million vehicles to the 250 million in the USA. It predicts that the coming oil supply gap will “at best... lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment”, though the report also warns of the geopolitical turmoil which followed the Great Depression.

Economic growth in the developing world, and especially China, which reported first quarter growth of 11.9%, caused the IEA to up its estimate for 2010 oil demand to a record high of 86.6 million barrels/day. Should this transpire it would be marginally higher than the boom year of 2007 which saw a peak oil price of $147/barrel. Of course much has changed since 2007, Western economies are still barely emerging from recession and are saddled with massive public debt, so the growth estimate signals a huge power shift in which the developing economies grow rapidly even without a swift recovery in their key export markets.

In the UK, current oil prices are already being translated into record petrol prices. Rising fuel taxes play a part, but much of the pressure comes from a weak pound. A further demand-driven rise in the oil price could be devastating - not that you would have known it from Britain’s first ever live television leadership debate last night. Neither energy security nor climate change made it into the first round of questions – and the phrase peak oil appears nowhere in the main parties’ manifestos. There are two more debates to go before the election, so you never know, the biggest crises facing humanity might just get a look-in.

View our Reports and Resources page

Oil

US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

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Demand for oil will hit record levels and threaten recovery, says energy agency

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IEA Increases 2010 Non-OPEC Supply Outlook on Russia, Canada

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OPEC Holds Oil-Demand Forecast Steady

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OPEC would consider output hike if oil hits $90-$95

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Crude Oil Falls on Signs Economy, Demand May Be Slow to Recover

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BP brushes off investor revolts on tar sands, pay

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Saudi oil use to grow steeply

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Oil to Set New 2010 Record, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis

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Iranian Tankers Expand Oil Storage to Echo 2008 Surge

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Gas

Nord Stream gas pipeline underwater construction starts

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Gazprom Says ‘Abnormal’ Gas-Price Gap to Undermine Investment

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Electricity

Europe Urged to Share Power Across Continent

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Renewables

The answer to clean living may be blowing in the wind

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Sinking turbines blow ill wind across offshore energy sector

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Molten metal batteries to be clean energy reservoirs

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UK

£30bn hole in party election pledges

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What happens to petrol prices when the economy starts motoring again?

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Oil price increase ‘less bad for UK’

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Economy

China's economy grows nearly 12 percent

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China reports rare trade deficit

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Geopolitics

China offered oil for sanctions deal over Iran

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White House says Iran nuclear threat years away

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Soros warns Europe of disintegration

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Editorial Notes: The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is an independent, UK-registered educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem.

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