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IEA Report Underlines Long Term Supply Side Challenge for Oil Markets

Datamonitor via iStockAnalyst
The IEA World Energy Outlook has highlighted longer term supply side constraints, despite the precipitous correction in world oil prices of late, as current depletion rates outstrip future demand. Rather than a shortage of physical reserves, the report focuses on a slowdown in necessary investment, which political stability and falling prices could exacerbate.

The IEA World Energy Outlook highlights long-term supply side constraints, showing that current depletion rates outstrip future demand. On the face of it, this is welcome succour for ‘peak oil’ theorists, who have long been arguing that the world is actually running out of physical reserves. However, the IEA is not focusing on a shortage in the physical element, but rather in the necessary levels of investment that will be needed to meet energy demand going forward, amid high rates of depletion. According to the report, conventional production will effectively remain static, rising from 70.4m barrels per day (b/d) in 2007 to just 75.2m b/d in 2030, as ‘new gains’ and ‘old losses’ balance out.

The agency uses data from the 500 largest fields and extrapolates its findings to smaller fields, leading to estimated annual decline rates of 9.1% to 2030, under a business as usual scenario. Greater investment prevents decline accordingly, but the North Sea provides a striking example of the problem highlighted by the IEA; production is expected to drop from 1.7m b/d today, to around 500,000 by 2030.
(4 November 2008)
I wonder where Datamonitor got its information, since the IEA report is not scheduled to be released until later this month? -BA

Peak oil at William & Mary

David Williard, College of William & Mary
Manos: The research imperative at W&M

Solving the great challenges confronting science today requires an ever-increasing integration of the academic disciplines, according to Dennis Manos, vice provost for research and graduate/professional studies at the College of William and Mary.

His belief is expressed in the design of the three-phase Integrated Science Center being constructed on campus.

… In practical terms, Manos suggested that integrated science becomes visible when one mentally deconstructs the overlapping care provisions in a modern hospital or the profusion of digital gadgets routinely available on cars today.

“On the street, integrated science occurs in every hospital; patients are complicated things and diagnosing and treating their ailments requires a confluence of many separate skills and disciplines,” Manos said. “It also occurs in nearly every consumer product from airplanes to automobiles, and it is the very core of what will be needed in terms of alternative energies if our nation is to survive the crisis of peak oil, the effects of pollution on a global scale and the need for cradle-to-cradle materials to support a sustainable, continuously improving, style of life for all of our citizens.”
(4 November 2008)
I think this is the first time I’ve seen peak oil mentioned by a college administrator. Way to go, W&M! -BA

ASPO-USA Conference DVDs Now Available for Order

Conference Team, ASPO-USA

ASPO-USA 2008 Conference in Sacramento

The professionally recorded and edited set of DVDs yields nearly 30 hours of recorded presentations on Peak Oil and the economic crisis which was unfolding as the meeting convened. All of the plenary sessions are included, along with ALL of the Sunday sessions.

The presentations have the power-points integrated into the DVDs for easy viewing, rather than just the camera view.

Each boxed set consists of 18 DVDs which include all pre-conference breakout sessions. Professionally recorded and produced with PowerPoint presentations integrated into the live footage. $95.00 per set includes S & H to most countries.
(November 2008)

Oil up nearly 11 percent on Saudi supply cuts

Edward McAllister, Reuters via Yahoo!News
Oil prices jumped nearly 11 percent on Tuesday on signs Saudi Arabia had made substantial cuts in its crude exports and as global financial markets rallied.

Saudi Arabia has reduced exports after OPEC agreed last month to lower output, according to trade sources, with some estimating the world’s top exporter had cut shipments by around 900,000 barrels per day from a peak in August.
(4 November 2008)
Day before from Reuters: Oil drops near 6 percent on slumping demand