Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

Giant oil fields and their importance for future oil production

Complete title of doctoral thesis

Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil:
Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production

Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important.

The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the re- liability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter.

A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR).

However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf.

The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production.

In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.

Editorial Notes: Contributor Lars Olofsson writes:
Doctoral thesis on peak oil, will be defended on the 30th of March, opponent Robert Hirsch. Click "fulltext" link at top for the entire thesis as a PDF. [or here (warning- 3.67MB file]
This 168-page thesis should be of interest to peak oil wonks; it certainly comes with credentials. In his "Acknowledgements" section, author Fredrik Robelius mentions that he is a member of the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group (UHDSG) and that his thesis supervisor is Kjell Aleklett (President of ASPO). UPDATE: Positive comments about the dissertation in TOD's Drumbeat. -BA

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


How We Went on an Energy Diet, and What We Lost (and Gained!)

In which I reveal the changes in our household energy usage from 2003 …

Five Billion Years of Energy Supply: the "Stereosphere" and the Upcoming Photovoltaic Revolution

Both the biosphere and the stereosphere use solar light as the energy …

Peak Oil Review - Aug 22 2016

 A weekly roundup of peak oil  news, including: -Oil and the …

Limitless imagination and physical limits

How do we distinguish those ideas that are forever going to remain in the …

Some Reflections on the Twilight of the Oil Age (part III)

The impact of the Tooth Fairy Syndrome is all the more felt in the main …

Peak Oil Review: A Midweek Update - 18th Aug 2016

 A midweek update. Oil prices climbed for the fifth straight day on …

Facts and Falsehoods in Energy Transition  

We...try to separate fact from falsehoods in this wide-ranging interview. It …