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Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?

Cry Wolf, The Oil Drum / UK
The UK Department of Trade and Industry (Oil and Gas) and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate have both published production forecasts showing increased oil production in the years 2007 and 2008. Oil production in the UK and Norway has been falling steadily in recent years following peak production in 1999 and 2001 respectively.

These forecasts have a significant impact upon forecast trade balance, particularly in the UK which has just turned net oil importer. So lets see how the UK and Norway are going to pull off this gravity defying, Hubbert denying stunt.

…In these production forecasts Norwegian and UK civil servants seem unwilling to acknowledge that the North Sea oil production bonanza may be approaching twilight. These forecasts seem to draw on the most optimistic of scenarios and in so doing they lose sight of objectivity and reality. Of course only time will tell if these official forecasts do actually prove to be over optimistic and I will revisit this subject in 6 to 12 months time to further evaluate the predictive expertise of the DTI and the NPD.

Norway, already one of the wealthiest countries in the World, and with rapidly growing gas production to compensate for falling oil production is well placed to withstand both energy and economic fallout should the NPD forecast prove to be over optimistic.

The UK and the EU are in much more vulnerable circumstances.
(17 Oct 2006)

Energy Depletion & the US Descent into Fascism

Dale Allen Pfeiffer, Mountain Sentinel
In October of 2001, a little over a month after 9/11, I wrote an article titled The Background is Oil. The hypothesis laid out in this article was that the 2000 US presidential election resulted in a coup of neocons and oil interests who had taken control of the US in order to prepare for the coming peak and decline of world oil production. Furthermore, this coup engineered the 9/11 terrorist attacks to further their own interests.

Before 9/11, the coup was hampered by lack of support from both the public and Congress. The tragedies of September 11th washed all resistance away in a flood of rabid patriotism. As a result, the coup was able to hijack the US political process. Over the coming years, starting with the patriot act, the coup has been able to strip us of our constitutional rights, in preparation for the civil unrest which will come from the peak and decline of oil production and the resulting economic collapse.
(16 Oct 2006)
Article includes a call to a general strike. Dale Allen Pfeiffer has written some groundbreaking articles on peak oil and food, the relevance of the experiences of Cuba and North Korea, and the North American natural gas crisis. The Mountain Sentinal is Dale’s new personal publishing vehicle. -AF

In tying together so many issues, Dale Allen Pfeiffer may be ahead of his time. At the moment, his viewpoint seems rather isolated. His admiration for the IWW (Industrial Workers of the World or “Wobblies” – Wikipedia entryhomepage) puts him in the anarcho-syndicalist camp which had its heyday in the early 20th century but is currently miniscule. On the other hand, if energy issues bring about economic turmoil, we will probably see a rise in labor activism and Pfeiffer will have been a prophet. -BA

Video: imPOssible mission

Aerobar Films, YouTube

(22 July 2006)