The World Lives in a Fog of Oil Uncertainty
* Public company oil and gas supplly data has accuracy error of +/-2 to 4%.
* No data exists on any region’s decline rate of production.
* OPEC member countries do not trust OPEC’s numbers
– Tanker traffic gurus have more credibility than OPEC
– OPEC members mistrust everyone’s data
* Oil analysts only have “opinions” to analyze.
* “TRUST ME” was fine when it did not matter.
* It matters now and the time for reform is NOW.
A Change in Oil Market Transparency Must Occur
* Once stakeholders understand the current “fog”, change has to occur.
* Status quo is as unacceptable as banning any further annual report audits.
* There are scores of ways to bring about changes:
– Some are simple.
– Some are extremely complex.
– Some take years to implement.
– Some are fast.
Why Now? Who Cares? Why Me?
* Oil demand has become a runaway train.
* Too much oil supply is now in decline.
* Excess capacity has disappeared.
* We are flying blind.
* Every stakeholder *should care*.
* All significant suppliers improve supply reliability through data reform.
* Only unreliable oil suppliers ought to hide or stonewall this reform.
* All solid suppliers should applaud reform.
…. (13 more slides in original)
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