Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

GDP EFFECTS OF AN ENERGY PRICE SHOCK

This chapter attempts to derive rough estimates of the adverse ef-fects on Chinese GDP growth attendant upon an energy price “shock,” defined as a substantial increase in oil prices, with ensuing empirical effects on such oil substitutes as coal and natural gas as outlined below. We begin with the case of a “severe” production cut and price increase and, for sensitivity purposes, also consider pro-portionately smaller “large” and “moderate” cases as well. As an an-cillary effect in the context of China, such increases in the price of oil can be envisioned to produce an additional adverse impact on public health because of a renewed intensive use of “dirty” (high-sulfur) coal for electric power generation, industrial processes, space heat-ing, and other purposes; however, the available literature does not offer a uniform estimate of that effect in terms of mortality and morbidity, in that the effects are difficult to separate from those of dust from construction sites and agricultural areas.1

We begin with the presentation of some basic data and projections on the Chinese energy sector, followed by a discussion of the effects of a severe increase in international oil prices. GDP effects are de-rived, and the three sensitivity cases are discussed.

Read more: www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1686/MR1686.ch6.pdf

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


Peak Oil Review: A Midweek Update - 30th June 2016

A midweek update After two days of drops occasioned by the Brexit vote, oil …

More than One Way to Fall off a Cliff

The Energy Cliff is a key concept in ecological economics. Should we …

Energy and Justice

The ability to harness energy creates wealth and confers social power.

Oil, Interest Rates and Debt

At first glance it is hard to see how oil, interest rates and debt are …

Peak Oil Review - June 27 2016

 A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including: -Quote of the week -Oil …

Brexit and the energy equation

Neglected in the analysis of Brexit is the role energy supply and prices …

BP: Global Coal Use Fell by Largest Recorded Margin in 2015

Global coal use fell by more than 70 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) …