Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

GDP EFFECTS OF AN ENERGY PRICE SHOCK

This chapter attempts to derive rough estimates of the adverse ef-fects on Chinese GDP growth attendant upon an energy price “shock,” defined as a substantial increase in oil prices, with ensuing empirical effects on such oil substitutes as coal and natural gas as outlined below. We begin with the case of a “severe” production cut and price increase and, for sensitivity purposes, also consider pro-portionately smaller “large” and “moderate” cases as well. As an an-cillary effect in the context of China, such increases in the price of oil can be envisioned to produce an additional adverse impact on public health because of a renewed intensive use of “dirty” (high-sulfur) coal for electric power generation, industrial processes, space heat-ing, and other purposes; however, the available literature does not offer a uniform estimate of that effect in terms of mortality and morbidity, in that the effects are difficult to separate from those of dust from construction sites and agricultural areas.1

We begin with the presentation of some basic data and projections on the Chinese energy sector, followed by a discussion of the effects of a severe increase in international oil prices. GDP effects are de-rived, and the three sensitivity cases are discussed.

Read more: www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1686/MR1686.ch6.pdf

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


As Nations Embrace Paris Agreement, World’s Existing Fossil Fuels Set to Exceed its Goals

Entitled “The Sky’s Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a …

Naomi Klein & the Let­down of the Leap Manifesto: Poli­tics Doesn't Trump Physics, Nor the Economics of Collapse (part 2/3)

Politics can be egalitarian when going up Hubbert's Curve, but it's a whole …

Carbon Tracker Analysis: ‘Renewables are Already Outcompeting Fossil Fuels’

Clean technologies are already cheaper, on average, than the incumbent …

Timeline: The Past, Present and Future of Germany’s Energiewende

The Energiewende (energy transition) is an internationally recognised …

The Sower's Way: the Path for the Future

Our paper on "The Sower's Way" has been published in the IOP …

Just 16,000 Catenary Trucks Would Use All of California’s Electricity with only 2400 to 8300 Miles of Overhead Wires

It makes sense to electrify trucks since fuel from oil, coal, and natural …

The Energy-Water Nexus  

Energy and water are inextricably linked: It takes energy to supply water, …