Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

GDP EFFECTS OF AN ENERGY PRICE SHOCK

This chapter attempts to derive rough estimates of the adverse ef-fects on Chinese GDP growth attendant upon an energy price “shock,” defined as a substantial increase in oil prices, with ensuing empirical effects on such oil substitutes as coal and natural gas as outlined below. We begin with the case of a “severe” production cut and price increase and, for sensitivity purposes, also consider pro-portionately smaller “large” and “moderate” cases as well. As an an-cillary effect in the context of China, such increases in the price of oil can be envisioned to produce an additional adverse impact on public health because of a renewed intensive use of “dirty” (high-sulfur) coal for electric power generation, industrial processes, space heat-ing, and other purposes; however, the available literature does not offer a uniform estimate of that effect in terms of mortality and morbidity, in that the effects are difficult to separate from those of dust from construction sites and agricultural areas.1

We begin with the presentation of some basic data and projections on the Chinese energy sector, followed by a discussion of the effects of a severe increase in international oil prices. GDP effects are de-rived, and the three sensitivity cases are discussed.

Read more: www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1686/MR1686.ch6.pdf

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


The Debacle at Doha

Sunday, April 17th was the designated moment. The world’s leading oil …

Is Peak Oil Dead and What Does it Mean for Climate Change?   

This session seeks to bring together fossil fuel experts and climate experts …

Peak Oil Review: A Midweek Update - Apr 28

 A midweek update. Oil prices continued to climb this week, capped …

San Francisco Becomes First Major City to Require Solar Panels on New Buildings

San Francisco is one step closer to its goal of transitioning to 100 percent …

The Outlook for Electric Vehicles  

Electric vehicles are all the rage right now, and hopes are high that we …

We Could Be Witnessing the Death of the Fossil Fuel Industry—Will It Take the Rest of the Economy Down With It?

It’s not looking good for the global fossil fuel industry. Although …

Gov. Cuomo Rejects the Constitution Pipeline, Huge Win for the Anti-Fracking Movement

In a win for climate activists and the anti-fracking movement, and a blow to …