Building a world of
resilient communities.




This chapter attempts to derive rough estimates of the adverse ef-fects on Chinese GDP growth attendant upon an energy price “shock,” defined as a substantial increase in oil prices, with ensuing empirical effects on such oil substitutes as coal and natural gas as outlined below. We begin with the case of a “severe” production cut and price increase and, for sensitivity purposes, also consider pro-portionately smaller “large” and “moderate” cases as well. As an an-cillary effect in the context of China, such increases in the price of oil can be envisioned to produce an additional adverse impact on public health because of a renewed intensive use of “dirty” (high-sulfur) coal for electric power generation, industrial processes, space heat-ing, and other purposes; however, the available literature does not offer a uniform estimate of that effect in terms of mortality and morbidity, in that the effects are difficult to separate from those of dust from construction sites and agricultural areas.1

We begin with the presentation of some basic data and projections on the Chinese energy sector, followed by a discussion of the effects of a severe increase in international oil prices. GDP effects are de-rived, and the three sensitivity cases are discussed.

Read more:

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.


This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.

Review: 7 key scenes in Leonardo DiCaprio’s climate film Before the Flood

Before the Flood, a new feature-length documentary presented and produced by …

Transition in Cities  

It is widely assumed that the ongoing migration of rural peoples to …

Peak Oil Review: A Midweek Update - 20th Oct 2016

 A midweek update. This week’s EIA stocks report gave a …

Oil & Money: Tackling Corruption and Climate Change

This week, senior executives of the oil and gas industry will be meeting at …

CCC: UK must Act Now to Secure Zero-Carbon Heat by 2050

UK heating must be virtually zero-carbon by 2050, says the Committee on …

Peak Oil Review - Oct 17, 2016

 A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including: -Quote of the week …

Deepwater Horizon and our emerging 'normal' catastrophes

We think of the world we live in as static and linear rather than dynamic …