Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
The war in Libya entered the endgame this week: fighting continues, and fierce pockets of resistance remain, but oil companies are already queuing up to get back into action. Estimates vary on how quickly, and indeed whether Libya can return to its 2010 production capacity. Damage to wells and infrastructure will have to be assessed, and perhaps more importantly, the political succession after Gadaffi is far from clear. There is also the chance that successful regime change in Libya could lead to further turmoil in the Middle East in months to come now that the old regimes look vulnerable.
In America, opponents of the Keystone XL pipeline extension to bring oil from the Canadian tar sands began a 2 week illegal sit-down protest in front of the White House, which has so far resulted in around 300 arrests. The campaign against the pipeline has gathered more than 35,000 signatures and pulls together an interesting alliance of climate change campaigners, indigenous peoples affected by the tar sands development, and US ranchers concerned about oil spills and pollution on their land. The argument for the pipeline goes that the oil will be produced anyway, but go to China or other markets instead of the US. President Obama will return from vacation to a thorny choice.
While the US and the developed economies struggle under their burden of debt, the BRICS economies continue to grow, and increase their energy demand. A new report Low Carbon and Economic Growth: Are both compatible in developing economies? by the Institute for Integrated Economic Research sets out the challenges posed to the BRICS economies by fossil fuel shortages. Brazil has seen a significant increase in its oil imports this year, this despite its huge ethanol industry, and the latest statistics for China are also alarming: the Chinese bought half the record 35 million new cars and lorries sold worldwide in 2010, and it turns out their dream ride is more Hummer than Prius.
Oil
Libya Faces Hurdles in Reviving Its Oil Sector
When a new government finally takes hold in Libya, it will have every incentive to get oil production back up and running. But if history is any guide, that task will not be as simple as restarting oil wells and reopening pipelines.
Revolutionary changes in Iran and Iraq set back their oil industries for decades, and President Hugo Chávez has struggled to stabilize oil production over the last decade of radical change in Venezuela. Even relatively peaceful, democratic revolutions can cause great disruptions: the collapse of the Soviet Union sent Russian oil production crashing for years….
Brazil boom takes world fuel markets by surprise
When Brazil discovered huge offshore crude reserves four years ago, state oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA) sketched out plans to become a regional fuel exporter.
That plan has since been turned upside down…
Rails, Not Pipes, May Tame Twisted Oil Market
U.S. crude oil shipments by railroad could help to end gaping price distortions in world oil markets faster than most traders have been expecting.
Rail shipments of crude from the landlocked and oversupplied Midwest to refiners in the Gulf Coast appear set to surge next year, to nearly double the volume now flowing in congested pipelines between the regions…
Keystone XL: a line in the sand for Obama
The White House was rocked Tuesday, not only by the 5.9 Richter-scale earthquake, but by the protests mounting outside its gates. More than 2,100 people say they’ll risk arrest there during the next two weeks. They oppose the Keystone XL pipeline project, designed to carry heavy crude oil from the tar sands of Alberta, Canada, to refineries on the US Gulf Coast.
A “keystone” in architecture is the stone at the top of an arch that holds the arch together; without it, the structure collapses. By putting their bodies on the line — as more than 200 have already at the time of this writing — these practitioners of the proud tradition of civil disobedience hope to collapse not only the pipeline, but the fossil-fuel dependence that is accelerating disruptive global climate change…
Crude Falls, Narrowing Weekly Gain, on Doubts About U.S. Stimulus Measures
Oil declined, narrowing the first weekly gain in five, on speculation that U.S. measures to stimulate economic growth will fall short and that potential fuel shortages caused by Hurricane Irene might be short-lived.
Futures fell as much as 0.6 percent in New York before a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke today and a U.S. government report that may show economic growth slowed in the second quarter. Gasoline pared gains posted yesterday on concern Irene may damp fuel consumption…
Gas
Polish Shale Sector Needs Hands
If Poland is to develop its reserves of shale gas, the material that has created an energy bonanza in the U.S., one of its biggest obstacles is likely to be securing a qualified labor force, industry participants say.
“There are about 1,000 shale jobs in Poland right now, but there will be 50,000 to 100,000 in the next 10 years,” says Jakub Kostecki, chief executive of New Gas Contracting, a Warsaw-based recruiting firm…
China has been forced to dig deep to meet its energy needs
It is hard to think of more awkward country in which to drill for gas than the craggy, creviced hillsides that rise up from the banks of China’s turbid Yellow River in the northern province of Shanxi, the heart of China’s northern coal belt.
So steep are the sides of the valleys that local people are forced to tunnel their houses into the crumbly orange rock, sealing up the arch-shaped voids with neatly fitting windows and doors. Outside, crops grow on narrow terraces that skirt sheer-sided ridges and ravines…
China gas-to-chemical firms shackled by supply, costs -paper
Chemical firms using natural gas as feedstock in southwestern Chinese provinces were facing mounting risks to scale down and even close operations due to gas shortages and rising gas prices, an industry newspaper reported on Thursday.
These firms, including urea and methanol makers such as Guizhou Chitianhua Co , Yunnan Yuntianhua and Sichuan Chemical Industry Holding Co, need 9.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year for production purposes, but actual supplies were only 6 bcm, the China Chemical Industry News reported…
Electricity
Utility companies write down £600m of coal assets
Major energy companies have written down the value of coal and oil power station assets by £600m, with RWE npower poised to cut around 440 jobs linked to closing plants.
The falling profitability of coal stations in the medium-term is linked to costly restrictions from Europe on carbon dioxide emissions and lower wholesale electricity prices last year…
Japan Quake Is Causing Costly Shift to Fossil Fuels
The half-century-old, oil-fueled power generators here had been idle for more than a year when, a day after the nuclear accident in March, orders came from Tokyo Electric Power headquarters to fire them up.
“They asked me how long it would take,” said Masatake Koseki, head of the Yokosuka plant, which is 40 miles south of Tokyo and run by Tokyo Electric. “The facilities are old, so I told them six months. But they said, ‘No, you must ready them by summer to prepare for an energy shortage.'”…
Nuclear
What the east coast earthquake means for US nuclear plants
Shortly before 2 on Tuesday, Climate Central’s Princeton office shook unmistakably. It was obvious that the earth had moved, and within moments, we learned that the epicenter of the 5.9-magnitude quake was in Louisa, Virginia, Southeast of Charlottesville and northwest of Richmond. The shaking was dramatic in Washington, D.C., and felt to some degree all the way north to Boston (a colleague with a birds-eye view reported cars backing carefully out of the Holland Tunnel that connects New York City to New Jersey).
Earthquakes have nothing to do with climate change — but nuclear power does. As a source of energy largely free of greenhouse-gas emissions, it could well be part of the mix if the world ever decides to get serious about limiting carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. But it’s hardly news that nukes can cause other problems, especially when natural disasters strike (the name Fukushima might ring a bell). And indeed, as soon as the ground began to shake in Virginia, two reactors at the North Anna Power Station, just a few miles from the plant, were automatically taken off line to prevent a possible disaster…
Nuclear Plant Loses Electricity in Temblor
Tuesday’s 5.8-magnitude earthquake created a state of emergency at the North Anna nuclear-power station in central Virginia, causing it to lose electricity and automatically shut down, although generators restored power.
The North Anna Power Station declared an “alert” status, which is the second lowest of four emergency situations…
Renewables
Japan renewable energy push clears key hurdle
Japan’s lower house of parliament passed a bill on Tuesday to promote investment in solar and other renewable energy sources as politicians took a step towards the prime minister’s goal of reducing reliance on nuclear power.
Damage and the radiation leak at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has shattered the public’s confidence in the safety of atomic power and plunged the country’s energy policy into disarray. Ahead of the disaster, Japan had planned to build enough reactors to raise nuclear power supply to meet 50 percent of demand by 2030 from 30 percent…
World’s largest solar farm switches from thermal to PV
The company behind plans to build the world’s largest solar farm has revealed that it is to switch to solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in what could mark a significant shift in the balance of power between competing PV and solar thermal technologies.
Germany-based Solar Millennium AG said in a statement released last week that it has changed its plans for the proposed 1GW Blythe solar farm in California, and will install the first 500MW of the facility using PV panels…
Mining and Minerals
China Vows To Appeal Raw Materials WTO Case
China vowed on Wednesday to appeal a recent World Trade Organization ruling against its raw materials export policy, a case that could threaten Beijing’s stance on rare earths, which it defended as falling in line with the trade body’s rules.
“First, we will make an appeal. Second, we still think Chinese practice and policies do not violate WTO rules,” Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang told reporters at a press briefing when asked whether it would file an appeal…
UK
Windfarms prevent detection of secret nuclear weapon tests, says MoD
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is blocking plans for hundreds of wind turbines because it says their “seismic noise” will prevent the detection of nuclear explosions around the world.
The MoD claims that vibrations from new windfarms across a large area of north-west England and south-west Scotland will interfere with the operation of its seismological recording station at Eskdalemuir, near Lockerbie. The station listens out for countries secretly testing nuclear warheads in breach of the 182-nation Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty…
Farmers line up to turn muck into energy
A raft of farmers have responded to Government incentives to make energy from manure, waste crops and discarded food.
Between 40 and 50 farmers are seeking planning permission to set up anaerobic digestion (AD) plants, which harness natural micro-organims to break down organic waste creating gas and heat which can be used to make electricity. If successful, they will double the UK’s farm plants from 24…
Energy pricing probe stepped up
Energy regulator Ofgem has stepped up its investigation into the big six energy suppliers by appointing a specialist team of accountants to investigate how they calculate their profits.
Forensic accounting specialists from BDO have been tasked to look at the trading profits, wholesale prices and hedging practices of the firms – British Gas, E.ON Energy, EDF Energy, Scottish Power, Npower and Scottish & Southern Energy – to determine if profits at their retail arms have been underestimated to justify higher prices…
Climate
Anti-Government Truckers Besiege Australian Parliament
Hundreds of truckers circled Australia’s parliament on Monday in a campaign aimed at forcing the government to withdraw a proposed carbon tax law, and call new elections, the second anti-government protest in the nation’s capital this month.
The truckers sought to draw on public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s minority government and perceptions of economic incompetence, despite a robust economy…
Australia passes CO2 offset laws, carbon pricing next
Australia’s parliament endorsed the world’s first national scheme that regulates the creation and trade of carbon credits from farming and forestry on Monday, to complement government plans to put a price on carbon emissions from mid-2012.
The laws, the first major bills passed by the government with Greens support in the Senate since the Greens took the balance of power on July 1, are a precursor to the carbon price legislation to be put before parliament later this year…
Transport
China’s love affair with the car shuns green vehicles
Beijing used to be famous for the millions of bicycles thronging its streets. But it is the success of the motor car there and in other Chinese mega-cities that has now tipped the number of cars in the world over the 1bn mark.
According to a report by the trade journal Ward’s, 35m new cars and lorries were sold worldwide last year — the second-biggest increase ever recorded. That is 95,500 extra vehicles being added to the global traffic jam every day…
German rail to run on sun, wind to keep clients happy
It won’t be easy to run a national railway on renewable energy like wind, hydro and solar power but that is what Germany’s Deutsche Bahn aims to do for one simple reason: it’s what consumers want.
Deutsche Bahn says it wants to raise the percentage of wind, hydro and solar energy to power its trains from 20 percent now to 28 percent in 2014 and become carbon-free by 2050…
Fuel-efficiency drive promises hefty returns for lightweight materials
The global market for materials and chemicals capable of reducing the weight of cars and trucks is set to more than double over the next six years as a result of demanding new fuel-efficiency standards in the EU, US and Japan.
That is the conclusion of a new report from research firm Frost & Sullivan, which predicts the market for automotive lightweighting will climb from $38bn in 2010 to $95.34bn in 2017 — an increase of 150 per cent…
Have Solar Panels, Will Travel
A thing of sheer beauty is berthed in Victoria Harbor in Hong Kong: the Tûranor PlanetSolar, a vessel that is circumnavigating the globe to prove that solar energy can power water transportation.
Designed in New Zealand, built in Germany and flying a Swiss flag, the 102-foot boat has completed about two-thirds of a voyage that began in Monaco last September. So far it has sailed nearly 24,000 miles…
