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Exxon, and the Implications of 8%
Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum
Most of us thinking about peak oil have been aware for some time that the central uncertainty is the decline rate on fields in production (FIP). This dramatically affects when one believes peak will be, and seems to be the main difference between more pessimistic projections such as Chris Skrebowski’s , and CERA’s. It’s also critically important in assessing the economic impact, since the faster total production declines, the harder it will be for the economy to adjust, and as we go further and further past peak, the fewer new projects there will be to add to the declining bulk of production.
In the past, peak oil projections have used fairly low decline rates for FIP – 3%-6%. There are now several pieces of evidence that the FIP decline rate might be more like 8%. …
(17 November 2005)
Goes on to test the higher depletion rate hypothesis against Exxons production forecasts and actual performance over 2001-05, finding that a depletion rate of just under 10% seems to explain the discrepancies nicely. That is higher than anyone wants to think about.
As usual its worth also reading the comments if have the time, has anyone gotten around to running the same exercise against Shell & BP’s production? -LJ
‘Black Gold’ strikes Big Oil ‘nerve’
Leading industry website drops book, column amid complaints
WorldNetDaily
Responding to complaints from customers, a leading petroleum industry website stopped its sale of WND Books’ “Black Gold Stranglehold: The Myth of Scarcity and the Politics of Oil,” which challenges the conventional wisdom on the commodity’s origin and supply.
Houston-based Rigzone.com also pulled from its site a related column by a co-author of the book, Jerome Corsi, after receiving about a dozen complaints from subscribers, who include leading figures in the oil exploration community.
(17 November 2005)
World Net Daily is a conservative/religious news website that has been touting abiotic oil and criticizing the peak oil analysis. Today two of their leading stories were: “How illegal immigration is destroying our culture” and “Christians face threat of being burned alive.”
UPDATE Nov 21: Joseph Farah, the founder, editor and CEO of WorldNetDaily wrote to Energy Bulletin:
I am writing today to object vehemently to your mischaracterization of my news site as “religious” and “conservative.” I can assure you, as the person who created this site, it is neither. I have spent 30 years in the news business, running major daily newspapers in major markets before founding WorldNetDaily in 1997. Since I do not consider myself a “conservative” and have never thought of myself as “religious,” it is incomprehensible to me that my life’s work could be reduced to such a pitiful, sophomoric stereotype.
If you want some adjectives to describe WorldNetDaily, let me provide them to you — from the horse’s mouth:
* independent
* fearless
* credible
* hard-hitting
* maverick
I maintain my original assessment of WND. -BA
Connecticut conference: oil crunch to have wide impact
“..No more Oreo’s for anyone..”
Rob Varnon, Connecticut Post
CROMWELL — The end of cheap oil could spell the end of cheap Oreos unless the nation can find ways to diversify its fuel base and conserve energy, according to speakers at an annual conference on energy prices and supplies Wed-nesday.
“We’re finally recognizing that energy affects every part of our business and lives,” said Jennifer Janelle, a Hartford-based attorney and president of the Connecticut Power & Energy Society. “It’s a commodity we’ve taken for granted for a long time, and if we don’t do something today, there will be no more Oreos for anyone.”
Janelle opened “What’s the Deal? VI,” an energy conference sponsored by her organization and the Connecticut Business & Industry Association, by telling a story about her family.
(17 November 2005)
Oil Storm’s aftermath
Bill Moore, EV World
In June of this year, Fox Television aired “oil Storm”, a chillingly prescient docudrama about the political and economic impact of a hurricane that devastates America’s Gulf Coast over Labor Day weekend in 2005. The storm, named Julia, wreaks havoc on Port Fourchon, Louisiana, the entry point of much of the nation’s offshore oil and gas supply, as well as the entry point for oil imports from abroad.
The film was written and produced by British film makers James Erskine and Caroline Levy, and starred Austin, Texas-based Melody Chase, among others. Ms. Chase, who is the mother of three young children, was on hand for the screening of “Oil Storm” at the Denver World Oil Conference last week.
In her comments about the film, she noted a couple of interesting facts. The first was that most of the cast was unhappy about the somewhat story book ending in which Russia comes to America’s aid and gradually the country recovers from its economic funk, chastened, but stronger for the experience. She intimated that the original ending was much darker.
(16 November 2005)
Jeanette Fitzsimmons, NZ Greens Party, talks about peak oil (audio)
Global Public Media
Jeanette Fitzsimmons of the New Zealand Greens party speaks briefly about peak oil and the peak oil toolbox.
(18 August 2005 but just posted Nov 16)
Rep. Bartlett speaks in Congress about the Hirsch Report
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, transcript
PEAK OIL — (House of Representatives – November 16, 2005)
—–
The SPEAKER pro tempore (Mr. Jindal). Under the Speaker’s announced policy of January 4, 2005, the gentleman from Maryland (Mr. Bartlett) is recognized for 60 minutes.
Mr. BARTLETT of Maryland. Mr. Speaker, I have in front of me a document called Peaking of World Oil Production, Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. As I look at the second page, it says this report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. That agency was the Department of Energy, and the organization that was funded to do this work was SAIC, a very prestigious, scientific organization.
Dr. Robert Hirsch was a project leader. He was supported by Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling in this very important work. It was submitted in February of 2005.
What I would like to do this evening is to go through the salient points of this so-called Hirsch report. Remember, it was funded by the Department of Energy, and it was performed by a very prestigious scientific organization, SAIC.
(16 November 2005)
The Hirsch report gets more coverage here.
Oil Crisis in the Capital Region: What Should We Do?
Cheryl Nechamen, Capdistrictenergyaction.org
The problem is that we’re facing peak oil and peak natural gas in North America, according to Bill Reinhardt from the NYS Energy Research and Development Authority in a forum on peak oil at the State University of NY at Albany on Monday. Also at the forum were James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency, and Gary Kleppel and Steve Breyman, professors at SUNYA and Rennselaer Polytechnic Institute, respectively. …
The overriding theme of the discussion was that we need to reduce consumption, not just of energy but of all the things we use in our daily lives because of the energy it takes to make and transport those products. All four speakers also strongly encouraged people to buy local. A side benefit of buying locally grown food and manufactured products is that it yields immediate benefits for our communities, whether peak oil occurs now or twenty years from now.
(17 November 2005)
This forum report confusingly verges on opinion as times.-LJ
Olson talks peak oil (audio)
Global Public Media
Physics instructor and peace activist Eric Olson of gives a talk on peak oil.
Eric T. Olson is a freelance writer and physics instructor at Unity College and Eastern Maine Community College, UMaine graduate (MS Physics 1983) and MPAC student activist during the 1980s. He runs Peacecast.us and the Deep Blade Journal.
(29 September 2005 but just posted Nov 16)
It appears that the elves have been busy at Global Public Media! A number of their great video/audio programs now have been transcribed and are available online.
