geopolitics

Concerns about the weakening global economy and oil demand growth trumped Middle Eastern tensions and the OPEC+ rollover of the production cuts into 2020, sending oil prices lower for most of last week. 

After a week of rampant speculation about what could happen at the G20 summit that would affect oil prices, the announcement on Saturday that the US and China have agreed to keep the current tariffs in place for now and would resume trade negotiations left the situation about where it has been for months.

Brent futures dropped steadily for the first three days last week, falling to a low below $60 on Wednesday before the attack on two oil tankers just south of the Straits of Hormuz.  Prices then rebounded to close the week at $62.01.

US oil prices sank into bear market territory on Wednesday, falling more than 20 percent below the April peak.  Traders were concerned that a 6.8-million-barrel build in US crude stocks indicated lower prices ahead.

Oil prices fell on Friday posting their biggest monthly drop in six months, after President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on imports from Mexico.  

Oil prices plunged on Friday with New York futures falling about $5 a barrel. Precipitating the fall were concerns that there is no end in sight to the US-China trade war and that the global economy could slow by enough to affect oil demand.

The struggle between fears that the US sanctions will lead to an oil shortage and the intensifying US-China trade war will lead to a depression continued last week.

Uncertainty was the watchword of the week as oil traders juggled the faltering US/China trade deal, increasing tensions in the Middle East, and falling US crude stocks.  

After climbing more than $20 a barrel from $52 in late December to nearly $75 on April 23rd, prices have fallen back so that Brent closed at $70.85 on Friday.

Last week began with oil prices continuing to climb on concerns that tightening sanctions on Iran would cut oil supplies.  Brent crude touched $75 for a short time after Moscow announced that it was halting some crude shipments to Europe due to contaminated pipelines.

Oil prices continued to climb slowly last week with Brent closing just below $72 a barrel, a new high for the year, and New York futures closed $8 a barrel lower at $64.