geopolitics

Uncertainty was the watchword of the week as oil traders juggled the faltering US/China trade deal, increasing tensions in the Middle East, and falling US crude stocks.  

After climbing more than $20 a barrel from $52 in late December to nearly $75 on April 23rd, prices have fallen back so that Brent closed at $70.85 on Friday.

Last week began with oil prices continuing to climb on concerns that tightening sanctions on Iran would cut oil supplies.  Brent crude touched $75 for a short time after Moscow announced that it was halting some crude shipments to Europe due to contaminated pipelines.

Oil prices continued to climb slowly last week with Brent closing just below $72 a barrel, a new high for the year, and New York futures closed $8 a barrel lower at $64. 

Oil prices continued to creep up last week closing out at $71.55 in London and $63.89 in New York, making the sixth consecutive week of gains.  

London’s oil prices broke through the $70 a barrel barrier last week to close at $70.34.  New York futures were some $7 behind to close at $63.  

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London.  The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. 

Prices climbed for the first three trading days last week on the perception that oil supplies were tightening due to the OPEC+ cuts, the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and a 9.6-million-barrel decline in US crude stocks.  

The struggle between a weakening global economy and the shrinking availability of oil supplies seems to be tipping in favor of the latter as oil prices slowly make their way higher.

The struggle between declining economic growth and falling oil supplies continued to affect oil prices last week.  The failure of a significant portion of Venezuela’s electricity grid has already been a significant blow to the country’s roughly 1 million b/d of oil production, and the situation seems likely to get worse.

The struggle between lower crude output and the prospects for a global economic setback that could reduce the demand for oil continued last week.  Prices rose on bullish news early in the week and then fell to close only slightly higher for the week at $55.80 in New York and $65.07 in London.  

Brent crude futures briefly touched $67.73 a barrel on Friday, their 2019 high. The London contract then fell 5 cents to settle at $67.12 a barrel while US futures US gained 30 cents to settle at $57.26 per barrel, after hitting $57.81 earlier in the day.