Recorded on: Feb 22, 2026
Description
This week’s Frankly is another edition of Nate’s Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. Today’s edition features reflections on renewable energy and CO2 emission trends, updates on species adaptability, and a discussion about nuclear treaties and Iran. Nate ties each topic to the larger story of the Great Simplification, updating listeners on what pathways might be available to pursue the long-term stability of humanity in the biosphere.
What does ecological simplification teach us about resilience in human systems? When we celebrate “progress” in the form of rising renewable energy or flattening emissions, where might we be ignoring hidden system-level costs? And how has repeated exposure to “contained” geopolitical conflict changed our collective perception of risk, particularly in the West?
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
The TGS team puts together these brief references and show notes for the learning and convenience of our listeners. However, most of the points made in episodes hold more nuance than one link can address, and we encourage you to dig deeper into any of these topics and come to your own informed conclusions.
00:00 –Figures referenced in this Frankly
00:16 – Wide Boundary News playlist, Wide-boundary perspective
00:22- Iran news
00:32 – In EU: Wind and solar generated more electricity than fossil fuels 30% vs. 29%, Solar has grown 20% per year for 4 years straight, Including nuclear the mix is 70% clean electricity, All renewables are approaching 50% of EU electricity (~25%* of all energy)
01:06 – Germany’s energy transition
01:13 – Germany has the highest electricity prices in EU, German industrial electricity prices are 2.5x U.S. prices and 5x Chinese prices
01:18 – German desindustrialization due to electricity prices
01:28 – BASF hasn’t turned a profit in Germany in 2 years, Has closed multiple industrial plants, and is shifting investments to the U.S. and China
01:43 – Major multinational companies are exiting Europe’s chemical sector (News article) and closing energy-intensive facilities
01:51 – 100,000 German manufacturing jobs disappeared last year, almost 1000 manufacturing firms filed for bankruptcy in the first half 2025, [German economic crisis] negative GDP
02:39 – Europe shutting down nuclear power plants, EU shut down nuclear, replacing cheap pipeline gas with expensive LNG, EU severing use of Russian gas, and layered on carbon taxes and European Grids Package surcharges
03:03 – Superorganism: Nate’s paper, video
03;18 – Global (and U.S.) renewable energy keeps surging
03:41 – Nate’s Presentations Playlist
03:49 – The Great Simplification Film illustrating how we replaced human labor with fossil carbon
04:13 – Global energy consumption
04:33 – China’s CO2 emissions are flat (down 0.3%)
04:50 – Chinese coal: Record production in 2025 (up 1.2%), Record high capacity additions, New coal project proposals at a record 1.6 GW
05:06 – China consumes nearly 40% more coal than rest of the world
05:14 – Chinese cement production has decreased by ~10% due to real estate contraction
05:38 – Chinese chemical sector (coal → chemicals) grew their emissions 12%
06:24 – Environmental externalities ignored (More info)
07:04 – Carbon tax, Europe gasoline tax, Taxes on non-renewable inputs
07:49 – Past 11 years are the 11 hottest on record
08:12 – Global heating chart
08:40 – Greenhouse gases, Aerosols
08:50 – Cleaning up sulfur pollution, Health effects of aerosols [sulfur pollution]
09:21 – Landmark biodiversity study in Nature Communications showing species turnover slowing
09:42 – Ecosystems are losing internal dynamism, Regional species are depleting
10:18 – System collapse
10:58 – S.T.A.R.T. (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), Expiration of New S.T.A.R.T.
11:08 – Chuck Watson, Mark Medish, TGS Roundtable with Chuck Watson and Mark Medish
11:13 – Zero legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals
11:22 – Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
11:25 – Nuclear risk rising in theatres of Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia
11:30 – Chatham House, The World in 2026 [2026 escalation trigger]
11:36 – Impossible Wall [N.A.T.O. Association of Canada essay]
12:05 – Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria
12:37 – Arms control treaty [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] with Iran
12:38 – U.S. contemplating sustained military action [against Iran]
12:49 – Recent Russia and China naval exercises
12:50 – Strait of Hormuz, TGS Frankly #61 The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’
12:53 – Carrier strike group, President Donald J. Trump, Shock and awe campaigns
13:20 – 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day
13:28 – 100 million barrels of oil consumed by the world per day
13:36 – Inter-area movements of oil 2024
13:48 – Commonly cited figure: 20% of world’s purchasable oil goes through Strait of Hormuz
14:11 – Prior U.S. attacks on Iran were surgical and effective
14:26 – Risk homeostasis
14:29 – Chuck Watson TGS Ep #114 NATO in Ukraine, Ep #97 The Nuclear Wild West, Ep #94 War, Rumours of War, and Governance, Ep #17 Nuclear War
14:57 – Behavioral homeostasis
15:52 – Polymarket
16:00 – Chances of U.S. bombing Iran
17:09 – Fantasy League, Cryptocurrency
