Recorded on: Dec 18, 2025
Collapse has long been discussed in the public imagination as something that happens suddenly, immediately turning the world upside down. But history shows that collapse is more often characterized by the slow unraveling of a civilization. Usually, this is due to some combination of resource scarcity, economic stagnation, and compounding disruptions to productive capacity – yet it’s barely perceptible in the day-to-day lives of the people within it. What are the signs that we could be living through such a moment right now, and if we are, how does history tell us to prepare for what’s to come?
Today, Nate is joined by Balázs Matics, the author of the popular Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer, to explore the systemic reasons behind civilization’s potential collapse, the importance of energy security, and the growing effects of geopolitical instability. Balázs emphasizes the overlooked importance of industrial inputs such as diesel fuel, and the implications of this as more parts of the world face resource scarcities. Together, they also discuss the possibilities of more localized production and communities rooted in compassion and cooperation as ways to navigate a post-growth future.
As economic, geopolitical, and resource issues become more pressing, what will this mean for the future of environmental concerns such as global heating? What economic and industrial signals should governments actually be paying attention to in order to understand the health of a society? Finally, how can the humans paying attention to this story open up discourse where they live and start sowing the seeds of more resilient communities, even as the web of global complexity unravels?
About Balázs Matics
Balázs Matics is the author of the Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer where he writes on the topics of energy, economics, industrial materials, and other matters relevant to the future of civilization. He is located in Eastern Europe, where he is an industrial product engineer by training and has two decades of experience in manufacturing, supply chain, and project management at various multinational corporations. Having been involved in a number of international projects and after completing a 2 year post-graduate leadership program in supply chain and logistics, he has developed a unique understanding of the interconnected nature of our world and technologies.
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
The TGS team puts together these brief references and show notes for the learning and convenience of our listeners. However, most of the points made in episodes hold more nuance than one link can address, and we encourage you to dig deeper into any of these topics and come to your own informed conclusions.
00:00 – Balázs Matics, The Honest Sorcerer,
Recent Substack Essays:
Recent Relevant News:
03:25 – All civilizations before ours collapsed
03:35 – Longevity of hunter-gatherer societies vs. Empires
04:05 – How agriculture city-states led to overshoot, William R. Catton Jr.’s Overshoot
04:30 – Renewables are actually rebuildables, The Honest Sorcerer essays on renewables:
04:40 – The Carbon Pulse makes civilization possible
05:20 – Products made from oil and natural gas, Use of coal, Haber-Bosch
05:50 – The Great Simplification, Joseph Tainter (TGS Ep), The Collapse of Complex Societies
07:50 – Predicament vs. Problem
08:40 – Coal quality, Coal EROI, U.S. coal resources and reserves assessment
09:15 – FRED U.S coal production price index rising with diesel and oil, Diesel is vital to mining
10:20 – Hydrogen powered trucks and why they can’t scale
10:40 – Collapse on the periphery first – Decay is the weakening of the core’s rule of the periphery (Motyl, Imperial Ends) / Empires Fall By Dennis RM Campbell
10:58 – Europe may collapse first, Europe energy constraints and imports
12:20 – Russo-Ukrainian war
12:28 – EU natural gas price fluctuation
13:20 – Energy demand decrease in Europe and Future predictions, Energy affordability and demand decrease
13:45 – Europe “heading” the climate transition
15:00 – Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT) I&II, Reality Roundtable on nuclear arms governance
16:30 – German Ostpolitik and pipeline project, Nord Stream pipeline’s sabotage
17:50 – Energy blindness
19:10 – Emmanuel Macron (French president) warning about the “end of abundance”
20:00 – Europe is arming up in fear of Russian invasion
20:40 – BRICS+ alliance growing
21:30 – Chinese digital yuan market, Payments with other countries and recent surge
21:47 – Russia kicked out of SWIFT system
22:05 – Energy decline and authoritarianism
22:25 – Dr. David Betz, West on the brink of civil war, Europe cracking down on free speech
23:20 – Sanctioning of Jacques Baud
24:00 – Diesel is lifeblood of our civilization, Energy density, Torque, Liquid hydrogen energy density, Uranium energy density
26:50 – ~25% of a barrel of oil becomes diesel
27:15 – Middle distillates, Gasoline is a byproduct of diesel
28:11 – Relationship between diesel and crude oil prices, The Honest Sorcerer’s essays on oil analysis:
28:43 – Make-up of diesel
28:55 – Conventional, easy-to-access oil plateaued in 2004, Deep-sea oil development, Started to add “lighter” stuff – Natural gas liquids, Shale oil
29:40 – Diesel production has fallen since 2015, Economic (rate of GDP growth) slowdown since then, Construction slowdown (especially in China) – with global construction equipment sales still faltering
30:13 – Diesel crack spread, Price premium has skyrocketed
30:30 – How Russia-Ukraine war affected oil markets, Russia is a major source of traditional oil
32:20 – U.S. interest in Venezuela and their heavy oil, Venezuela oil reserves
33:00 – U.S. seizing oil ships
33:25 – U.S. seizing Venezuela and slowing down Chinese economic growth
34:25 – How much oil is under protected lands in the U.S.
35:00 – Energy required for production is estimated to be 15.5% of the actual gross energy, 35:35 – Mordor Economy
36:00 – Net energy yield from production of conventional oil
36:30 – Global GDP is still very tightly coupled to energy use and bad for the natural sinks
37:40 – Late-stage capitalism
38:00 – Energy prices and economic growth, Offshoring and job loss
38:35 – K-shaped economy, Wealth inequality increasing, Wealth pump, Peter Turchin (TGS Ep), Wealth inequality is a key predictor for civilizational collapse
39:35 – Hungary is fairly economically equal, Southeast Europe more unequal
40:10 – Narrow- vs. Wide-Boundary Wisdom
42:00 – Six-continent supply chian
42:10 – Fukushima earthquake, 2 weeks later Ford at to shutdown Detroit plant due to pigment from there
42:42 – Nexperia seized by Dutch government and automotive industry emergency
45:10 – TGS listener who opened a repair shop
46:07 – Increasing complexity of technology, Chinese finger trap
47:02 – West deindustrialization, Degrowth, U.S. dollar dominance
50:10 – Speed of Soviet Union collapse, Oil price crash and the collapse of the Soviet Union
51:05 – Economic Superorganism (Nate’s paper)
51:35 – Greece 2008 currency crisis and local currencies
52:45 – Development of community during COVID-19
53:00 – Consensus trance
54:10 – Black swan vs. White swan events
54:30 – ASI Existential Risk, Advanced AI Extinction Risk & Risk Analysis, Artificial General Intelligence
57:18 – Localization and Relocalization, TGS Episode on localization, Food co-ops
58:05 – Critical mass
1:06:55 – Hypnagogic state
1:10:40 – Peak copper, Peak steel production
1:12:05 – Copper supply gap, Timeline of starting a mine
1:14:30 – Stanford Marshmallow Experiment
