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Inflation, Deflation, & Simplification: The 8 Things That Influence Prices

December 9, 2025

Recorded on: Dec 1, 2025

Description

In this week’s Frankly, Nate explores how the prices we encounter in our daily lives are influenced by not only how much money is in the system, but also by resource depletion, technology, affordability by ‘the masses,’ and trust within a complex global system.

Prices are deeply intertwined with the biophysical reality that underpins our society, and are affected by major forces that often operate unseen to the average consumer. Other forces – like leverage, complexity, and currency reform – also have longer term repercussions within our monetary system. These have the ability to create both inflationary and deflationary effects on price, amplifying notions of prosperity and fragility within our current social contract. Ecological instability, often treated as peripheral to financial/price analysis, has emerged as another driver of prices, even as extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and breached planetary boundaries will increasingly feed directly into the cost structures of our modern civilization.

Where are the gaps within our existing conceptions of money and prices? What might follow the past few centuries of increasing societal and economic complexity? And how do prices – and societies – change when monetary claims and physical reality begin pulling in opposite directions?

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

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The TGS team puts together these brief references and show notes for the learning and convenience of our listeners. However, most of the points made in episodes hold more nuance than one link can address, and we encourage you to dig deeper into any of these topics and come to your own informed conclusions.

02:57 – How money is created by banks

03:12 – Money supply

04:43 – Purchasing power of U.S. dollar

05:24 – Shale oil

05:32 – 1800s Butte City copper ore concentration20th century copper ore concentration

06:02 – Energy consumption and copper production in Chile

07:09 – TV price comparison

07:42 – AI causing growth in data center demand

08:18 – Claims of AI productivity increase by 1-2% per year

09:16 – K-shaped economy

10:55 – Financial leverage

11:38 – 1998 Long Term Capital Management

12:02 – John Meriwether

12:05 – 2020 crude oil prices drop to -$35 per barrel

12:39 – Japan’s yen carry tradeJapan’s interest rates

13:10 – Japan holdings of U.S. gov bonds

14:40 – Dunkelflaute

16:24 – Currency devaluation in Weimar GermanyZimbabweArgentina

16:42 – Hyperinflation

17:19 – Bretton WoodsGold Standard

18:17 – “Too big to fail” banks

21:04 – Asian and BRICS countries moving away from U.S. dollar

21:13 – 2025 Japan interest rate spike

21:58 – Delivery backlog on GE natural gas turbine

22:10 – Peak oil

22:39 – AI and scarcity

Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens is the Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF) an organization focused on educating and preparing society for the coming cultural transition. Allied with leading ecologists, energy experts, politicians and systems thinkers ISEOF assembles road-maps and off-ramps for how human societies can adapt to lower throughput lifestyles.

Nate holds a Masters Degree in Finance with Honors from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont. He teaches an Honors course, Reality 101, at the University of Minnesota.