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Artificial Intelligence and the Lost Ark

By Nate Hagens, originally published by The Great Simplification

February 3, 2025

robot head

Description

​​We live in an era where artificial intelligence increasingly dominates the headlines with promises of revolutionary advances – from medical breakthroughs to productivity gains. Yet, while society fixates on these micro-level innovations, a deeper macro story remains largely untold: how AI may fundamentally reshape the relationship between humanity, technology, and the living world. As we race towards artificial superintelligence, we face a species-level ‘Icarus moment’ – where our technological ambitions risk outstripping our collective wisdom as we fly too close to the sun.

In this Frankly, Nate explores seven potential macro-risks associated with AI, from the amplification of wealth inequality to the (literal) existential threat of superintelligence. Through the lens of ‘obligatory technology’ and Jevons paradox, he examines how AI could turbocharge the economic superorganism – accelerating its impact on resource extraction, ecosystem degradation, and human meaning – all while fragmenting our shared reality and concentrating power in dangerous ways.

What happens when we outsource, not just our labor, but also our creativity and meaning-making to machines? How might society adapt when technological efficiency leads to even greater resource extraction and consumption? And as we stand at this critical juncture, can we find ways to “use the devil’s tools in service of Gaia’s work”? Or are we opening a Pandora’s box that cannot be closed? Metaphors – and risks – abound.

Show Notes

PDF Transcript

01:04 – Bend not Break #2

01:39 – Jevons Paradox

03:22 – Art Berman + TGS Episodes + Blog

03:59 – Peak Oil

04:26 – 2024 ExxonMobil Global Outlook

04:39 – US oil production base declines at 37% per year

06:00 – Use of AI in the oil and gas industry

06:20 – AESI’s ‘Dune Express’

07:20 – Recovery rate for unconventional oil reservoirs

09:50 – US wealth and income inequality

10:17 – Universal Basic Income

10:28 – John Vervaeke + TGS Episode

11:20 – Big tech driving a nuclear power revival + energy demand of AI

11:42 – Estimates for energy use of ChatGPT vs Google search + more

12:34 – Material demands of AI

12:51 – CNBC describes Jevons Paradox

16:08 – 500 billion fossil workers

16:16 – 100 billion human brain equivalents added to our workforce: **Internal estimate – details and supporting logic forthcoming.

17:08 – 10% of college students are narcissists

17:32 – Francis Weller

1837 – Keynes predicted a *15h work week 

19:39 – ‘Skynet’

20:22 – Artificial Superintelligence + Artificial General Intelligence

21:31 – AI is already capable of deceiving humans

22:11 – ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark’

24:55 – *7% of all humans that have ever lived are alive now

Teaser photo credit: Kismet, a robot head which was made in the 1990s; it is a machine that can recognize and simulate emotions. By Rama, CC BY-SA 3.0 fr, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=89032593
Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens is the Executive Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF). Allied with leading ecologists, energy experts, politicians, and systems thinkers, ISEOF assembles roadmaps for understanding how human societies might adapt to lower-throughput lifestyles.

Nate hosts the podcast The Great Simplification, where he has conversations with experts in energy, ecology, government, technology, and the economy to provide a systemic view of the world around us.

After ten years in finance, Nate left Wall Street to study the interrelationships between energy, ecology, and economics—and the implications for human futures. He was the Managing Editor of The Oil Drum, one of the most respected websites for analysis and discussion of global energy supplies and implications of the upcoming energy transition.

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Gunnar_Rundgren
Gunnar_Rundgren
1 year ago

I tend to see AI not so much as a threat or a promise, but rather as a "necessary" tool for an increasingly complex society. The enormous flow of data caused by digitalization, globalization of value chains and increasing regulation, means that information processing and controls by conventional means is just not enough to deal with all this complexity. I would say that it follows an already prominent trajectory of self-perpetuating complexity. Of course, there are some other aspects of this as well, but I believe we should keep focus on "why" this happens.
https://gardenearth.substack.com/p/the-ear-tags-of-our-cows-spell-the

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