Tom Whipple and Steve Andrews, Editors

Quotes of the Week

“OPEC producers will need to pump crude at the fastest pace in five years in 2023 if they are to balance oil supply and demand. Capacity constraints suggest they may struggle.”
Julian Lee, Bloomberg

“People familiar with [Saudi] operations say Riyadh would struggle to produce 11 million barrels a day for more than a few months at a stretch and 12 million barrels a day for more than a few weeks. They cite field maintenance requirements, declining production at some fields and technical issues involving pressure levels.” [NOTE: Saudi produces about 10.5 million barrels today] Summer Said and Benoit Faucon, The Wall Street Journal

(Brent oil prices rose to $106 on Tuesday after President Biden returned from Saudi Arabia without an agreement on increasing output from OPEC+.)  “The message is that it is OPEC+ that makes the oil supply decision, and the cartel isn’t remotely interested in what Biden is trying to achieve,”
           Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade.

Stat of the Week

Natural-gas futures have jumped 48% this month—including 10% on Wednesday —to $8.007 per million British thermal units, reversing last month’s plunge and reviving a key driver of inflation. Demand has been high from utilities during the heat wave.  (Wall Street Journal)

Graphics of the Week

Headlines for the week of July 18 – July 24

The Global Energy Situation

OPEC Will Struggle To Balance Supply And Demand In 2023
IEA:Global Electricity Demand Has Slowed Dramatically
Heat Wave Sends Natural-Gas Prices Soaring
Brazil, Guyana, Mexico Projects To Offset Declines In Other Areas

Russia

Russian seaborne crude exports retreat from three-year highs: shipping data
Novak: Russia Will Not Export Oil If Price Cap Is Below Production Cost
Captured nuclear plant doubles as launch pad for relentless Russian rocket attacks

Europe

Europe Must Slash Gas Demand Now Before ‘Hard’ Winter, IEA Warns
­EU Set to Target 15% Reduction in Natural-Gas Use on Russian Supply Woes
Spain, Portugal, Greece Reject EU 15% Gas Usage Cut
EU debates revised plan to reduce gas use after opposition
Europe’s Diesel Market Slides from Mind-Blowing to Amazing

North America

Gas prices could jump as soon as October
New England winter natural gas prices top $40 as global LNG market tightens
America’s Most Important Shale Patch Isn’t Going Anywhere
Halliburton Warns Significant Frack Growth May Be Impossible This Year

China

China’s Fuel Exports Plunge
Russia’s Cheap Oil Gains Market Share In China
Coal’s Dominance in China Will Endure for a Decade or More

Middle East

Saudi Arabia Reveals Oil Production Capacity Limits
Russian And Iran Ink $40 Billion Oil and Gas Agreement

Africa

Libyan oil minister expects crude output to double to 1.2 mil b/d in 10 days
Nigeria petrol subsidy seen nearly 70% higher at $16.2 bln next year
Nigeria Unable to Benefit From High Oil Prices

The Global Economy

IMF to Cut Global Growth Outlook ‘Substantially’ at Next Review

Agriculture

Ukraine, Russia to sign deal to reopen grain ports, Turkey says
How the Grain Deal Between Ukraine and Russia Will Work

Russia

Ukraine war: Russia plans to annex Ukrainian land – US
Zelenskiy says no ceasefire without recovering land lost to Russia
U.S. pledges more military aid to Ukraine, peace seems far off

Europe

German chemical industry has no gas left to cut, warns association
Gas crisis spurs Germany to mull extending life of nuclear plants
Eurozone business activity falls to 17-month low, raising recession fears

China

China plans ‘great efforts’ to consolidate economic recovery

Middle East

MI6 Chief: Iran May Not Want A Nuclear Deal

Latin America

Iran boosts crude supply to Venezuela for refining, freeing up exportable oil

Africa

Nigeria: Shell, ExxonMobil to enforce $1.8bn arbitration award against NNPC

Global Warming

Heat Wave Complicates Global Energy Crisis and Climate Fight
How is the jet stream connected to simultaneous heatwaves across the globe?

North America

Biden Fails To Declare ‘Climate Emergency’, Vows To Use Executive Power