Tom Whipple and Steve Andrews, Editors

Quotes of the Week

““Crude oil could collapse to US$65 a barrel by the end of this year and slump to US$45 by end-2023 if a demand-crippling recession hits, Citigroup Inc. has warned. ‘For oil, the historical evidence suggests that oil demand goes negative only in the worst global recessions. But oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost.’”-Bloomberg news, on a Citi Note by Francesco Martoccia, Ed Morse et al

“As the world faces one of its worst ever supply crises, industry insiders, OPEC sources and other experts are asking whether, with current output of at least 10.5 million bpd, Saudi Arabia really has another 1.5 million bpd up its sleeve that can be brought online quickly and sustained. Adding to skepticism about spare capacity, Saudi Arabia has been pumping below its OPEC quota despite near-record oil prices, and OPEC figures show drilling of new wells in the kingdom last year remained well below pre-pandemic levels.”-Ron Bousso, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Alex Lawler, for Reuters

“According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels. Global recoverable oil reserves fell by 152 billion barrels compared to 2021. The drop in reserves is driven by the 30 billion barrels of oil produced last year, plus a significant reduction in undiscovered resources.”-Rystad Energy, as quoted in Oilprice.com

Graphic of the Week

Headlines for the week of July 4 – July 10

The Global Energy Situation
Total global recoverable oil reserves are falling at an alarming rate: Rystad Energy
Decreasing oil prices push pump prices lower to $4.75
Oil bulls retreat as economic outlook darkens
Citi says oil may collapse to $65 by the year-end on recession
IEA: nuclear power can play a major role in the transition to low emissions energy systems; Russia, and China leading on new reactor starts
Coal makes a comeback as the world thirsts for energy: “more coal better than more Russia”

Russia

Russia set to meet just 25% of EU gas demand in 2022: IEA
Russia targets Europe with a commodity weapon: Kazakh crude
Russian army turns Ukraine’s largest nuclear plant into a military base
Russia says sanctions over Ukraine a declaration of economic war by the West
Putin is set to halt gas and Germany fears it’s not coming back

Europe

EUROPE POWER Rising wind supply weighs on spot price
The Netherlands calls on large energy users to reduce consumption
Shell to start construction of renewable hydrogen plant in the Netherlands
France’s nuclear woes will worsen Europe’s power crisis
France plans full nationalization of power utility EDF
Europe scoops up LNG, choking off power supplies in poorer nations
Germany dims the lights to cope with Russia’s gas supply crunch

North America

Governors Hochul and Murphy to split cost of the gateway tunnel
U.S. oil output slips 0.5% in April to lowest since February -EIA
U.S. natgas futures jump 14% on small storage build, hot weather
Gasoline prices see the largest drop in nearly 15 years
US crude stocks show a surprise build on weakened refinery demand, strong imports

Middle East

U.S. oilfield services trio to exit Kurdistan region, Iraqi ministry says
Baghdad court declares four KRG oil contracts void
Iran slashes the cost of its oil to compete with Russia in China
US levels new Iran sanctions aimed at oil, petrochemicals exports to China
Saudi Arabia sets Aug crude prices to Asia at near-record high
Is Saudi Arabia exaggerating its oil production potential?
With the world in energy shock, Saudi oil cushion gets very thin

India

Why India ramped up Russian oil imports, easing pressure on Moscow

China

China allows refiners to export 40% less fuel than a year ago
Tanker operators are raking it in sending Russian oil to China

Japan

The world’s third-largest economy is facing a looming energy crisis
Fukushima fishermen worried about nuclear water release plan

The Global Economy

Markets head toward worst start to a year in decades

Agriculture

Rice is saving Asia as Ukraine war drives up food prices
One of world’s major wheat buyers to trim imports as prices rise

Russia

G7 to impose ban on imports of Russian gold
Russia defaults on foreign debt for first time since 1918
Russian industry faces code crisis as critical software pulled
Putin still wants most of Ukraine, war outlook grim -U.S. intelligence chief

US

Tesla, Ford, and GM raise EV prices as costs, demand grows
U.S. emergency oil reserve draws by 6.9 mln barrels to the lowest since 1986
Consumer spending gains likely cooled in May, economists say
U.S. factory activity slows to a two-year low as clouds gather over the economy

Europe

Ukraine war hits Germany with first trade deficit in over three decades
U.S. to send $400 million in weapons to Ukraine, including more HIMARS

China

China and US discuss Trump-era tariffs Biden’s looking to ease
How China’s BYD played catch-up with Tesla
China considers $220 billion stimuli with unprecedented bond sales

Latin America

Production at Venezuela’s largest refinery hit by blackout
Could Argentina’s dead cow shale patch help solve the energy cris

Asia

Japan urges importers to accelerate securing alternatives to Russian LNG
Kazakhstan’s CPC crude exports uninterrupted as president orders push for alternative routes

India

For Reliance, with love: Russian oil has supercharged profits

Central Asia

EU plans investment in world’s tallest dam to dent Russia’s energy clout

Global Warming

Europe

Europe’s string of extreme heat waves linked to jet stream
EU parliament backs labelling gas and nuclear investments as green