Scientists discuss the 1.5C limit to global temperature rise
Carbon Brief
One of the major talking points during the negotiations at COP21 in Paris has been whether the international community should aim to limit global temperature rise to the internationally accepted 2C above pre-industrial levels, or a more stringent target of 1.5C.
The draft agreement text published last Saturday gave two options: “below 1.5C” or “well-below 2C”. The updated text issued on Wednesday afternoon added “below 2C” as a third option.
With global temperatures rise set to pass the 1C mark this year, is a 1.5C limit feasible? What would achieving it mean in practice? And how would a 1.5C world compare to a 2C one? Carbon Brief asked scientists here in Paris for their thoughts…
Economists agree: economic models underestimate climate change
David Roberts, Vox
It’s fairly well-established at this point that there’s a robust scientific consensus about the threat of climate change. But analysts and journalists often say (or imply) that there’s less of an economic consensus, that economists are leery of the actions recommended by scientists because of their cost.
Is it true? It turns out there have been very few systematic surveys of economists’ opinions on the subject, and the few that have been done suffer from methodological shortcomings.
Now the New York–based Institute for Policy Integrity has tried to remedy that situation with just such a large-scale survey of economists who have published work on climate change.
The conclusion? There is broad consensus on some questions, a wider spread on others, but in every case the median opinion of climate economists supports more vigorous action against climate change, sooner. Like scientists, economists agree that climate change is a serious threat and that immediate action is needed to address it…
Canada climate push spells uncertainty for oil sands
Richard Valdmanis, Reuters
Canada’s newly elected government is committed to being a strong ally in global efforts to curb climate change, but it is unclear yet what that will mean for its vast oil patch, Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna said on Wednesday. "We are committed to moving to a low-carbon economy and we need to look at what that means," McKenna said at a briefing on the sidelines of the U.N. climate conference in Paris…
Oil fuels war and terrorists like Isis. The climate movement can bring peace
Rebecca Solnit, The Guardian
Greed for petroleum has produced plenty of war. War can be defined narrowly, as conflict between nations, or broadly, as large-scale violence in pursuit of gain. This is why so many see the climate movement as a peace movement – especially after the recent massacres in Paris.
In the fossil-fuel era, some oil corporations became powers equal to states, and some states became petroleum corporations in drag, and both were eager to fight horrific wars over resource control. The abuse of power and the destruction go all the way back to the early history of the petroleum industry in particular (though coal and natural gas extraction and industries have plenty of ugly achievements of their own)…
The lethally high price of cheap oil
David Cay Johnston, Aljazeera
The incredibly cheap gasoline we enjoy comes at a stiff price, though the costs we bear are not so obvious as the figures posted at the pump. Now would be an excellent time to choose to pay a smart price, which includes a tax for carbon, because that which is cheap often proves very expensive in the long run…
But just as every solution creates new problems, every drop in price comes with a cost. ..
Heat on EPA as National Study on Fracking’s Risks to Drinking Water is Challenged
Julie Dermansky and Sharon Kelly, DeSmog Blog
The Environmental Protection Agency’s draft national assessment on fracking’s potential to pollute drinking water is still under review. If it is to reflect science over policy, some dramatic changes to the wording of the study’s conclusions are needed, EPA’s review panel was told during a public comment teleconference on Thursday.
Back in 2010, when Congress first tasked EPA with investigating the risks that hydraulic fracturing poses to American drinking water supplies, relatively little was known about the scale and significance of the onshore drilling rush’s environmental impacts.
Over the past half decade, the pace of scientific research into fracking has accelerated dramatically. In 2009, only a handful of peer- reviewed studies (the gold standard for scientific research) on the environmental risks of shale and tight gas extraction were published; by contrast, over 150 studies were published in 2014, according to a review of the literature by Physicians, Scientists and Engineers for Health Energy.
That scientific evidence has overwhelmingly found that shale and tight gas extraction has the potential to harm – and has harmed – air, water and people’s health, that group wrote in an analysis released this year.
For politicians seeking to keep federal regulations for the industry at bay and for those backing an “all of the above” energy strategy, the growing evidence of a broad range of hazards related to fracking is bad news. In Pennsylvania alone, state regulators have documented hundreds of cases of water contamination, making it more challenging for supporters to argue that the industry is well-policed and operating safely.
But the final word on all of this research, as far as many federal policy-makers are concerned, will likely be the EPA’s take on fracking’s risks…
EIA: U.S. crude production slows again in November
Joshua Cain, Fuelfix
Production from U.S. oil fields slowed by 60,000 barrels per day in November, the second-straight month of declines, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Adminsitration.
The latest release of federal data now puts total U.S. crude production at 9.17 million barrels per day, a fall of 410,000 bpd since peaking in April.
The decreasing U.S. production has reflected a pull back in drilling that has seen more than 1,000 rigs shut down across North America since peaking in Oct. 2014. Last week the count of active oil rigs fell by 10 to 545, the lowest mark since June 2010…
Smog So Thick, Beijing Comes to a Standstill
Edward Wong, New York Times
Residents across this city awoke to an environmental state of emergency on Tuesday as poisonous air quality prompted the government to close schools, force motorists off the road and shut down factories.
The government, which for the first time declared a “red alert” over air pollution late Monday, even broadcast what sounded like bombing raid alerts in the subways — warnings telling people to take precautions with their health. Yet even with those extraordinary measures, the toxic air grew worse, shrouding this capital city of more than 20 million in a soupy, metallic haze…
Despite Push for Cleaner Cars, Sheer Numbers Could Work Against Climate Benefits
David Jolly, New York Times
s United Nations climate conferees meet near here, Eric Feunteun wishes everyone could agree: If the world is going to curb climate change, there is no choice but to stop driving cars that burn fossil fuels.
“If we want affordable, practical and fully green technology,” Mr. Feunteun said in an interview in an office building on the edge of Paris, “the electric vehicle is the answer at this stage.”…
For all Mr. Feunteun’s optimism, the delegates to the United Nations climate conference in nearby Le Bourget, France, confront a sobering fact: The number of automobiles on the world’s roads is on pace to double — to more than two billion — by 2030. And more likely than not, most of those cars will be burning carbon-emitting gasoline or diesel fuels…
Oil producers prepare for prices to halve to $20 a barrel
Larry Elliott, The Guardian
The world’s leading oil producers are preparing for the possibility of oil prices halving to $20 a barrel after a second day of financial market turmoil saw a fresh slide in crude, the lowest iron ore prices in a decade, and losses on global stock markets.
Benchmark Brent crude briefly dipped below $40 a barrel for the first time since February 2009 before speculators took profits on the 8% drop in the cost of crude since last week’s abortive attempt by the oil cartel Opec to steady the market.
But warnings by commodity analysts that the respite could be shortlived were underlined when Russia said it would need to make additional budget cuts if the oil price halved over the coming months…
We are shrinking! The neglected drop in Gross Planet Product
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, Vox EU
The analysis and forecasts of the IMF are well covered in the press. This column deals with a less noted development in the data provided by the IMF, namely the nominal decrease in Gross Planet Product. Since the IMF forecast both positive growth and positive inflation, the nominal shrinkage of GPP puts into question the consistency of the IMF World Economic Outlook data and forecasts…
Why Degrowth has out-grown its own name.
Kate Raworth, Oxfam Blogs
Here’s what troubles me about degrowth: I just can’t bring myself to use the word.
Don’t get me wrong: I think the degrowth movement is addressing the most profound economic questions of our day. I believe that economies geared to pursue unending GDP growth will undermine the planetary life-support systems on which we fundamentally depend. That is why we need to transform the growth-addicted design of government, business and finance at the heart of our economies. From this standpoint, I share much of the degrowth movement’s analysis, and back its core policy recommendations.
It’s not the intellectual position I have a problem with. It’s the name…
Zombies appear in U.S. oilfields as crude plumbs new lows
Anna Driver and Tracy Rucinski, Reuters
Drained by a 17-month crude rout, some U.S. shale oil companies are merely hanging on for life as oil prices lurch further away from levels that allow them to profitably drill new wells and bring in enough cash to keep them in business.
The slump has created dozens of oil and gas "zombies," a term lawyers and restructuring advisers use to describe companies that have just enough money to pay interest on mountains of debt, but not enough to drill enough new wells to replace older ones that are drying out.
Though there is no single definition of a zombie, most investors and analysts consulted by Reuters say they tend to have exceptionally high debt loads and face the prospect of shrinking oil reserves…
The House Just Voted to Ban Those Tiny Pieces of Plastic in Your Toothpaste
Julia Lurie, Mother Jones
Yesterday, the US House of Representatives voted to phase out microbeads, the little pieces of plastic that act as exfoliants in personal-care products ranging from face wash to toothpaste. The bill, which was introduced last year by Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), would ban the use of synthetic microplastics in cosmetics by 2018. Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.) introduced companion legislation in May.
Environmental advocates have expressed concern for years over the beads, which are so small that they aren’t caught in water treatment plants. There are roughly 300,000 microbeads in a single tube of face wash; by some estimates, Americans dump roughly 300 tons of the beads per year into US waterways. The microplastics, which serve as a sponge for toxins, are frequently confused by fish as food and make their way up the food chain—they’ve turned up in tuna and swordfish…
14 Dirty Photos That Show Why Soil Matters
National Geographic
A new United Nations report published on World Soil Day digs into how humans mistreat Earth’s soils.
