Given the ethnic turmoil in Iraq triggered by ISIL’s recent seizure of towns in Iraq’s North and West it is uncertain how this will impact on oil production in the Shia controlled South, from where the bulk of Iraq’s oil exports come from. At present oil exports from Basrah’s new oil terminals do not seem to be affected by the unrest but this can change. We don’t know what is going to happen, especially if this conflict widens the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran which was hitherto limited to Syria (where oil production had peaked). It would be prudent for governments which are still planning new oil dependent infrastructure like motorways and airports to shelve these plans and prepare for oil shortages instead.
Almost a year ago I wrote this article:
- Salahuddin1 refinery 70 kb/d
- North refinery 150 kb/d + 20 kb/d
- Salahuddin 2 refinery 70 kb/d
- Polymerisation unit 20 kb/d (since July 2011)
- 2 lube plant trains 125 kt pa
“The problems with the Kurds further increased last week when Baghdad announced a new plan to have BP double the output of the Kirkuk oil fields which are in the disputed zone. Production from the Kirkuk field, which was discovered in 1927, has fallen to 260,000 b/d from a high of 900,000 b/d 15 years ago and is badly in need of rehabilitation.”
http://peak-oil.org/2013/01/peak-oil-review-january-21-2013/

Fig 6: Investments required in Iraq’s oil and gas industry
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2012_free.pdf
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2013661.htm
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iraq-crisis-sunni-caliphate-has-been-bankrolled-by-saudi-arabia-9533396.html
http://crudeoilpeak.info/iea-oil-crunch-warning-governments-should-have-worked-on-it-10-years-ago
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/15may2014fullpub.pdf