In an interview with ASPO USA in January 2014 Ex-Saudi Aramco geologist Dr. Sadad-Al-Husseini predicted oil price spikes of $140 by 2016/17. This post shows some graphs explaining why this could happen.
Husseini: My base oil price forecast in 2012 dollars still ranges between $105 and $120/barrel Brent with a volatility floor of $ 95/barrel and more probable upward spiking to $140/barrel within 2016/2017.
Actual production in 2013 was 1 mb/d less than in the 2009 projection, mainly due to limited Brazilian production.
Actual production in 2013 was slightly less (80 kb/d) than in the 2009 projection due to weaker output in Kazachstan. Note that crude oil production in West Siberian fields peaked in the mid 80s, triggering the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Actual production in 2013 was 1.2 mb/d higher than in the 2009 projection. While there was an actual decrease in Iran, Yemen and Syria (together -850 kb/d), this was more than offset by an increase in all other countries including Iraq (+ 440 kb/d), Kuwait (300 kb/d), Qatar (250 kb/d), Oman (290 kb/d), UAE (220 kb/d) and Saudi Arabia (+ 540 kb/d).
For 2013, Husseini’s projection for Mexico was spot on and for Canada slightly over-estimated. The big difference is US shale oil, 3.3 mb/d, but that contains NGLs because shale oil is a very light oil as we have seen in recent fires in oil train accidents.
The uptick in crude was less, around 2.6 mb/d. So Husseini’s North America projection for crude and NGL has to be adjusted by the ratio crude/(crude+NGL).
We see that total actual crude production was slightly higher than Husseini’s forecast, 600 kb/d or 0.8% in 2013, a small percentage in view of all the uncertainties. As is usual for estimates there is a lot of plus and minus.