When Risk Assessment is Risky: Predicting the Effects of Technology

My aim is not to discourage people working toward an energy transition, but to insist that we develop a realistic plan for energy descent, rather than insisting on foolish dreams of eternal consumer abundance by means other than fossil fuels.

Electricity prices could be decoupled from gas prices by changing how the market works, but ideas for doing so either have not been tested or have problems of their own. In an age of cheap renewables, cutting fossil fuel use, not scrapping market rules, is key to breaking the link.

War is a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions, yet most conflict-related emissions remain excluded from official climate accounting. Governments and international climate bodies must begin treating military emissions and the climate costs of war as central issues of accountability and justice.