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Dump the pump: could peak oil be voluntary?
David Strahan, davidstrahan.com
People have fretted about when the world’s oil will start to run out ever since M. King Hubbert came up with the idea of “peak oil” back in the 1950s. The American geologist, who worked for Shell, pointed out that we are destined to reach a moment when oil production stops rising and goes into terminal decline. With it, the era of cheap oil that fuelled the post-war economic boom would end. The idea still provokes great debate, and many forecasters are predicting that global production will peak by the end of this decade as supplies dwindle.
Now there is a different view. A small number of analysts forecast that oil production will start to fall by 2020 – not because we are running out, but because we just won’t need it. They argue that the world will wean itself off oil voluntarily, through major advances in vehicle technology. Peak oil will not be a supply-side phenomenon brought about by shrinking reserves, but by motorists buying electric cars and conventional cars with highly efficient engines. If they are right, this shift will start the long-term transition from oil to electricity as the main transport fuel, reduce economies’ vulnerability to spikes in the oil price, and cap greenhouse emissions from crude oil…
(17 May 2012)
Shell’s Majnoon deal highlights Iraq oil target verdict
Peg Mackey, Reuters
Shell is pressing ahead with talks over final development of Iraq’s Majnoon oilfield, a senior executive told Reuters, and a lower, more realistic oil production target is a core part of discussions.
Majnoon is one of four southern super giant fields that are vital to Iraq’s ambition to at least double its oil output and put it firmly back among the world’s top producers.
But crunch time is approaching.
Iraq awarded service contracts in 2009 to foreign firms who vowed to boost its capacity beyond 12 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017, but this target has proved too aggressive due to infrastructure bottlenecks and logistical shortcomings…
(18 May 2012)
Insight – Peak, pause or plummet? Shale oil costs at crossroads
Selam Gebrekidan, Reuters
Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N) was among the first major U.S. oil drillers to make a big bet on the resurgence of domestic production, spending billions to grab oil patches from Texas to North Dakota.
Now, as it bemoans steep costs and moves its rigs out of the Bakken shale oil fields, some analysts wonder if the company has lost its clairvoyance. After two years of unyielding gains, costs are bound to fall, they say.
The California-based energy giant is beset by escalating labour costs in North Dakota, which has the lowest unemployment rate in the country. Other material costs have surged and new environmental regulations could add to the burden. The cost of bringing one Bakken well into production has grown from an average $6.5 million (4.1 million pounds) in 2010 to $8.5 million in the first quarter this year, data from company reports and the state regulator show…
(17 May 2012)
