Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
Oil prices fluctuated in the high $70’s this week reflecting the ups and downs of the dollar. Higher oil prices are loosening the discipline around the implementation of OPEC oil quotas as producers cash in. The additional supply is so far not impacting the price with the dollar the stronger driver. OPEC is due to meet again in December and pre-meeting rumours are that the quotas will remain unchanged.
A week after the IEA was reportedly accused by whistleblowers of underplaying future oil supply constraints, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS/CERA) have released a report which is considerably more bullish than the WEO. CERA’s report contains a reference scenario which claims that oil production will remain on a growth curve until 2030 with no evidence of peaking; production will then continue on an undulating plateau at around 115mb/d till 2050. Like Tony Hayward at BP, CERA regards all limiting factors to this scenario as being above ground rather than below, although they allow themselves an extremely broad set of ‘aboveground driver’ caveats to explain any degree of variance in the future.
This is in stark contrast with the recent Uppsala report, picked up in the Guardian this week, which analyses the impact of some previously unnoticed and extraordinarily optimistic assumptions in the IEA’s work, and calculates a shortfall of 26mb/d on the Agency’s 2030 oil supply projections. The arguments seem compelling, although some in the peak oil camp argue the study’s conclusions are unduly pessimistic.
Peak oil demand rather than supply, partly from a transition to renewables, is a key factor in both the IEA and CERA reports. International progress in driving such a transition forward appeared to stall this week as Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen moved to reduce the role of the Copenhagen Climate talks by introducing the idea of a 2 step plan. His plan, to focus on a political accord in Copenhagen but push out the deadline for legally binding emissions targets, gained agreement from APEC (the forum for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) leaders including President Obama causing consternation among environmentalists.
On Tuesday a joint statement from President Obama and Premier Hu of China raised hopes that a meaningful deal on emissions cuts might be reached in Copenhagen after all, though the lack of US legislation is clearly a significant hindrance. With a recent study warning that on current emissions the world is on course for a 6C rise in temperature there is a desperate need for bold leadership on all sides.
Oil
Oil: future world shortages are being drastically underplayed, say experts
A leading academic institute has urged European governments to review global oil supplies for themselves because of the “politicisation” of the International Energy Agency’s figures.
Uppsala University in Sweden today published a scathing assessment of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, saying some assumptions drastically underplayed the scale of future oil shortages…
Staking Out the Middle Ground
Last week I took the view that The Oil Situation Is Really Bad as we look out 5, 10 or 20 years from now. My article was prompted by the whistleblowers story published by the UK newspaper the Guardian in which current or former anonymous International Energy Agency (IEA) employees asserted that the agency is covering up the precarious oil situation to appease the Americans and prevent panic in the oil markets.
These warnings are plausible to anyone familiar with the current state of world oil production. Once the current spare capacity—I believe it is approximately 4 million barrels-per-day—is worked off after demand rises at some unknown point in the future, it is hard to see how oil production can rise much thereafter…
No Peak in Oil Before 2030, Study Says
Few topics can inflame oil watchers more than the debate over “peak oil” – that difficult-to-predict moment when the world’s oil production reaches its highest level before beginning a long and irreversible path of decline.
In recent years, ominous warnings about peaking production have gained some prominence among traders and some analysts. They helped explain why oil prices soared last year on fears that oil supplies would fail to catch up with the projected growth in consumption…
Oil Rises on Forecasts for Weaker Dollar, Economic Recovery
Crude oil was little changed in New York after rising earlier today as investors bought commodities as a hedge against inflation on speculation the dollar will weaken as the global economy recovers.
Oil is poised for a weekly gain as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development doubled its growth forecast for the leading developed economies next year and predicted a further acceleration in 2011 as China powers a global recovery. The dollar has lost 6.8 percent against the euro this year…
OPEC President Is ‘Happy’ With Oil in $75-$78 Range
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is “happy” with crude oil prices between $75 and $78 a barrel, said the group’s president, Angolan Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos.
Current crude oil prices are at a “good level,” he said today at a conference in Abu Dhabi. Global oil demand may rise by 20 million barrels a day to 106 million barrels a day between 2008 and 2030, he said…
Forget $100 oil. $80 oil is a problem
Are cash-strapped American consumers on for another date with energy price misery?
The U.S. economy remains weak and one in six Americans can’t find enough work. Yet oil prices have risen steadily this year. A barrel of crude costs $79 and change, more than double its price at the end of 2008…
Tankers store oil as futures prices rocket
One in 12 of the world’s largest crude oil tankers are being used to store oil rather than move it from place to place, according to research by a London shipbroker.
The trend follows a spike in oil futures prices that has created incentives for traders to buy crude oil and oil products at current rates, sell them on futures markets and store them until delivery…
China Tianjin to build 20 mln T oil reserve base
China’s coastal city of Tianjin plans to build a massive oil storage base with a capacity of 20 million tonnes by 2023, its regional economic planner said on Tuesday.
The plan was part of a broader long-term industrial development blueprint launched by the Tianjin Municipal Commission of Development and Reform.
The oil base will be used for storage of both crude oil and refined oil products, and both for state strategic reserves as well as commercial reserves, according to a statement posted on the commission’s website http://www.tjdpc.gov.cn/…
Russian wish granted on TNK-BP boss
TNK-BP has selected Maxim Barsky, a young Russian, as its chief executive after BP, the co-owner, agreed to the preferred candidate of its four Russian billionaire partners.
The Anglo-Russian oil group will, however, continue to be run by Mikhail Fridman, one of the Russian partners, until early 2011 after Mr Barsky, 35, has spent a period working in BP next year…
Gas
Gazprom defends rigid contract terms with Europe
Gazprom on Tuesday defended its inflexible supply contracts with Europe, which critics say are driving customers away and under which the Russian producer claims it is owed $2.5 billion.
Deputy Chief Executive Alexander Medvedev told a televised conference in Moscow that Gazprom does not have enough “grounds to bring substantial changes” to the take-or-pay terms of its long-term contracts…
Russia and EU agree on energy supply alert system
RUSSIA AND the EU agreed yesterday to create an alert system to warn of impending energy supply problems, amid mounting fears of a repeat of January’s gas crisis.
The deal signed in Moscow obliges Russia and the EU to notify each other of possible disruption to gas, oil or electricity supplies, and to work together to restore proper fuel flows. The early-warning system is intended to help prevent a repeat of last winter’s debacle, when Russia cut the gas supply to Ukraine for failing to pay its bills, and then turned off gas flow to the EU after accusing Kiev of siphoning off the fuel as it passed through its pipelines…
Nuclear
New EDF chief voices dissent
Henri Proglio, the incoming boss of EDF, has sparked a controversy just days before he takes over at France’s state-controlled nuclear operator by claiming the country’s showcase atomic industry is not working…
The economics of nuclear power : Splitting the cost
PLANNING is not the only obstacle to a rebirth of nuclear power in Britain. The technology’s torturous economics are, if anything, even trickier. The trouble is that, whereas the fuel is cheap, nuclear-power plants themselves are very expensive to build and the pay-off from that investment is slow.
It is hard to know the true cost of a modern nuclear plant. Most Western reactors that are still running were built years ago (Britain’s newest, Sizewell B, is 14 years old). Two new reactors of the type Britain may choose are being constructed in Finland and France. Discouragingly, the Finnish reactor, originally priced at €3 billion (£2.1 billion at the time), is three years late and around €2 billion more expensive than expected. The French plant is also thought to be over budget, by around 20%…
Renewables
Wind turbines and solar panels could be put up without planning permission
Wind turbines up to 15 metres high could be put up in industrial estates or farmland without planning permission under plans published by the government today.
Changes to the planning system would also make it easier for new solar roofs to go up on stadiums, schools and railway stations or for offices to be re-clad in solar panels, the Department for Communities and Local Government said…
Biofuels
Britain cuts down forests to keep ‘green’ power stations burning
Britain is set to plunder the lungs of the world to feed its growing hunger for wood to burn in power stations.
A series of biomass-fired plants are being built in the UK that will trigger a 150 per cent surge in timber imports from 20 million tonnes today to 50 million tonnes by 2015, according to the Forestry Commission…
Food
The one thing depleting faster than oil is the credibility of those measuring it
I don’t know when global oil supplies will start to decline. I do know that another resource has already peaked and gone into free fall: the credibility of the body that’s meant to assess them. Last week two whistleblowers from the International Energy Agency alleged that it has deliberately upgraded its estimate of the world’s oil supplies in order not to frighten the markets. Three days later, a paper published by researchers at Uppsala University in Sweden showed that the IEA’s forecasts must be wrong, because it assumes a rate of extraction that appears to be impossible. The agency’s assessment of the state of global oil supplies is beginning to look as reliable as Alan Greenspan’s blandishments about the health of the financial markets…
Global recovery ‘carries new risk of price surge’
Conditions are ripe for a fresh surge in food prices as the global economy recovers, says the senior United Nations agriculture official.
Jacques Diouf, director-general of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), believes that the world is not doing enough to avert another food crisis. His warning comes as leaders are expected to gather in Rome on Monday for the World Food Summit…
UK
Britain’s borrowing hits record £11.4 billion
The threadbare public finances were thrown back into the spotlight today as it was revealed the Government was forced to borrow £11.4 billion in October to meet its bills – the worst figure for the month since records began in 1946…
Inflation rebounds to 1.5% on rising oil prices
Britain’s headline rate of inflation jumped sharply in October, it was confirmed this morning, due to the weakness of sterling and high oil prices.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure hit an annual rate of growth of 1.5 per cent — in line with City forecasts — which was up from 1.1 per cent in September…
Energy security body calls for ‘urgent’ review of impact of oil shortages
Virgin, Stagecoach and Yahoo among firms calling for measures to address economic dislocation from a sudden rise in oil prices
An industry organisation that includes Virgin and Yahoo has called on the government to “urgently” reassess its dismissive view about the potential threat and impact of oil shortages…
Climate
Obama and Hu aim to agree greenhouse gas targets
The US and China, the world’s two biggest polluters, today said they aimed to set targets for easing greenhouse gas emissions next month, potentially breathing new life into the flagging Copenhagen climate negotiations.
Days after the US president, Barack Obama, said time to secure a legally binding agreement had run out, he and the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, agreed at a summit that they would continue to press for a comprehensive deal at Copenhagen that would “rally the world”…
Russia’s Medvedev warns of climate catastrophe
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned on Monday that climate change posed a “catastrophic” threat in some of the sharpest comments yet on a subject the Kremlin has often seemed reluctant to confront.
Although the United States said that the consensus amongst the 19 leaders at the weekend Asia Pacific summit in Singapore was that a climate change deal this December was unlikely, Medvedev made clear he felt it was a top priority…
World on course for catastrophic 6° rise, reveal scientists
The world is now firmly on course for the worst-case scenario in terms of climate change, with average global temperatures rising by up to 6C by the end of the century, leading scientists said yesterday. Such a rise – which would be much higher nearer the poles – would have cataclysmic and irreversible consequences for the Earth, making large parts of the planet uninhabitable and threatening the basis of human civilisation.
We are headed for it, the scientists said, because the carbon dioxide emissions from industry, transport and deforestation which are responsible for warming the atmosphere have increased dramatically since 2002, in a way which no one anticipated, and are now running at treble the annual rate of the 1990s…
Leaders plan a ‘two-step’ environment deal
President Barack Obama joined other leaders of the Asia-Pacific nations yesterday in accepting that a long-planned summit in Copenhagen next month on climate change will be unable to forge a new global treaty on cutting greenhouse emissions and will have to put off reaching a final deal until next year or even later.
Meeting for their regional Apec summit in Copenhagen, the leaders accepted the delay after being briefed at a hastily-arranged breakfast by Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the Danish Prime Minister, who will chair the Copenhagen talks that begin on 7 December. He made it plain that insufficient progress had been made on this point between the main players to make a final pact possible next month…
Transport
Shipping groups push up rates to cash in on Christmas trading
British business will be hit with a wave of price rises for parcels and freight before Christmas that is likely to continue into the new year.
FedEx, UPS and DHL have warned of their intention to increase rates in what is seen as efforts to restore profit margins ravaged by the recession…
