ODAC Newsletter Nov 6

November 6, 2009

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

Tuesday will see the release of the influential International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009. Last year’s blockbuster from the report was the declaration that the equivalent of 6 Saudi Arabia’s would need to come online by 2030 in order to meet demand and offset depletion of existing fields. Articles in the FT and Wall Street Journal based on leaks claim that this year’s report will see the IEA drastically cut its demand projections. The articles fail to deal with the supply side of the equation so we will need to wait till next week for that.

The IEA’s website claims that this year’s report will also cover in depth the role of gas in the energy mix including analysis of the impact of US unconventional gas. A short-term gas glut appears likely as a result of reduced demand due to the recession, increased LNG supplies and increased US domestic production. For Europe the opportunity to reduce dependence on Russia would undoubtedly be welcome, although the early moves in the annual winter chess game between Russia and Ukraine are already underway.

The other key area to be addressed in the WEO will be climate change. Last year’s report significantly stepped up language around the need for action. The IEA delivered an early version of its climate recommendations to the G8 Energy Ministers’ Meeting in May, but progress towards a meaningful deal has been slow in the interim. The backdrop for this year’s report will be very different from 2008. A year of recession has resulted in previously unimaginable spending on short-term economic measures. If such resources could only be focused on a clean energy infrastructure, just imagine what could be achieved.

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Disclaimers

Oil

Crude Oil Rises, Poised for Weekly Gain, on Signs of Recovery

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World Need for Oil Expected to Ease

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OPEC Output Rose in October, Bloomberg Survey Shows

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It’s a dirty business — the new gold rush that is blackening Canada’s name

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North Sea oil is dragging us into the red

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Iraq

Iraq in third overseas oil deal

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Outcry against ‘colonial’ takeover by BP of Rumaila oilfield in Iraq

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As allies struggle in battle, China moves in to do business

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Gas

Forecast of gas glut challenges Russian grip

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America’s Natural Gas Revolution

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Shale gas numbers may not add up

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Shale gas row gets nasty

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Putin warns Europe about winter gas supply amid more rows with Ukraine

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Gazprom’s Sales of Natural Gas to Europe Increase

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Trouble flares in Niger delta

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Coal

India jumps on gold bandwagon but Warren Buffett rides the growth train

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Capitol Hill coal power plant targeted by environmentalists

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Renewables

Solar power from Sahara a step closer

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Climate

No global climate change treaty likely for up to a year, negotiators admit

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Carbon markets not working, says Deutsche Bank

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We only have months, not years, to save civilisation from climate change

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Geopolitics

Iran May Evade U.S. Sanctions as U.A.E. Delivers Fuel

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Economy

UK manufacturing boosts hope that Britain will come out of recession

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EU Sees Gradual Economic Recovery In 2010, 2011

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China’s economic recovery broadens

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Tags: Fossil Fuels, Oil