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Why You Should Still Be Worried about Peak Oil
Aaron Task, tech/ticker
With oil prices down more than 50% from their 2008 highs and inventories at or near record levels, you don’t hear much about peak oil anymore. But it’s a mistake to be complacent about the world’s energy supplies, says Peter Maass, author of Crude World.
Unlike some peak oil adherents, Maass doesn’t believe this phenomenon will lead to the end of civilization as we know it, but says a return to $100-plus oil in the not-too-distant future is likely. “I can’t see [oil] staying at this level if economies keep growing,” he says.
The point of peak oil is not that the world is going to run out of oil, as many mistakenly believe. Rather, the concern is oil production is not going to be able to keep up with demand, especially if and as the global economy continues to grow. That will lead to sharply higher prices as demand for oil eclipses supply.
(5 Oct 2009)
Comments by Jean Laherrère on “Squeezing More Oil From The Ground”, Scientific American
Kjell Aleklett, ASPO International
In the March 1998 issue of Scientific American Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère published the classic article “The End of Cheap Oil” (http://dieoff.org/page140.htm). That article became the starting point for the debate that has subsequently developed around a future peak of oil production. During the autumn of 2000 there were several people who inspired Colin Campbell to take a lead in the debate and who assisted in the production of the first issue of his famous newsletter that began in January 2001.
We initial few were also privileged to participate in Colin Campbell’s network that he named ASPO, The Association for the Study of Peak Oil. The expression, “Peak Oil” was coined and, in May 2002, ASPO was formally established at a meeting in Uppsala, Sweden. The rest is history.
In the October 2009 issue of Scientific American there is an article by Leonard Maugen with the title “Squeezing More Oil From The Ground”, http://www.sciamdigital.com/index.cfm?fa=Products.ViewIssuePreview&ARTICLEID_CHAR=C860BC5F-237D-9F22-E8F21CB0D564DA03
The journal announced that the article was in preparation already in April (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil-edit-this). At that time they wrote, “Your feedback will be considered by the writer and editors as they complete the final draft of this article, which will appear in an upcoming edition of Scientific American
magazine.”
The article is now published but is not accessible on the net without a financial contribution. Leonard Maugen’s article criticizes the 1998 article that Colin and Jean wrote. Jean has now carefully analysed Maugen’s article and Colin has approved Jean’s comments. You can read Jean’s comments on ASPO’s homepage…
(5 Oct 2009)
North Sea Petroleum Reserves
Euan Mearns, Oil Drum: Europe
North Sea petroleum (oil+natural gas) production from 1970 to 2008 can be modeled to fit two Hubbert cycles. The first cycle represents surge production from the giant UK oil fields, Forties, Brent, Piper and Ninian. Actual cumulative production was 9937 million tonnes oil equivalent (mmtoe) 1970-2008 whilst the area beneath the two Hubbert curves is 9665 mmtoe – a difference of 2.7%.
To what extent the second Hubbert cycle will describe the decline in oil and gas production is highly pertinent but also uncertain. There are signs that the decline trajectory has already been influenced by a third cycle of giant field development with the Buzzard oil field and Ormen Lange gas field both coming on stream in 2007. The impact of this third cycle is shown below the fold…
(5 Oct 2009)
