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After six years, one month and 11 days, Britain ends its military mission in Iraq
Kim Sengupta, The Independent
The names were read out one by one as a piper played laments. The final goodbye to Iraq was marked by remembering those who will not make it home.
In London, Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, declared an official end to combat operations in a conflict which had lasted longer than either of the World Wars. In Basra, it was a sombre and reflective farewell to arms for British troops as they went on their last patrols along streets where they had fought battles and lost comrades.
British involvement in Iraq had started with Tony Blair joining George W Bush’s invasion and yesterday it ended with the same American connection. Military authority in Basra was handed over to a US force of 5,000 which will replace the 3,800 from the UK.
…Nigel Haywood, the British consul-general, said: “Our role here is changing and it will no longer be a military one. But we have made a lot of investment in this place and certainly intend to have an effective presence here. Iraq has a vibrant economic future and we are helping to put it together.”
Basra has 70 per cent of Iraq’s oil reserves, although the fall in the price of oil has meant that the province’s budget has been cut in half. Nevertheless, the port of Um Qasar, where a Royal Navy team will remain to train their Iraqi counterparts, is held up as an example of Iraq’s economic potential with the possibility of becoming the entrepôt for the entire region. Mr Hutton visited Um Qasar before laying a wreath at the Martyr’s Memorial in the Hayaniah district of Basra City for the victims of “Chemical Ali”.
(1 May 2009)
The rise and rise of Russian nationalism
Shaun Walter, The Independent
There have been a number of threats to Russia’s security in recent years, from Chechen terrorism to the country’s worrying demographic decline. But according to sources close to the Russian security services, what the authorities fear most in these times of economic crisis is the very thing that many Russians see as the country’s saviour – nationalism.
Amid a dizzying array of May Day marches, featuring various groups from across the political spectrum, all eyes were on the nationalists. They gathered around a metro station in north Moscow, as well as in other cities across the country, calling for all immigrants to be deported and a “Russia for the Russians”. In the event, the Moscow meeting passed off peacefully; police arrested a few demonstrators for the possession of knives, and the rest dispersed without incident. But with a huge migrant population, poverty and unemployment among locals, and with the high oil prices that fuelled the economic boom of the past few years a fast-receding memory, many feel the time for Russia’s nationalists to take the political initiative is coming soon.
…While genuine neo-Nazis will remain on the periphery and never gain widespread popularity in a country that still feels immense pride in its role in the defeat of fascism during the Second World War, the casual racism and hatred of immigrants that could provoke a nationalist uprising are certainly there in abundance. Indeed, some surveys show that up to 60 per cent of Russians agree with the slogan “Russia for the Russians”, the catchphrase of Russian nationalists.
(3 May 2009)
The Geopolitics of Pandemics
George Friedman, STRATFOR
Word began to flow out of Mexico the weekend before last of well over 150 deaths suspected to have been caused by a new strain of influenza commonly referred to as swine flu. Scientists who examined the flu announced that this was a new strain of Influenza A (H1N1) derived partly from swine flu, partly from human flu and partly from avian flu strains (although there is some question as to whether this remains true). The two bits of information released in succession created a global panic.
This panic had three elements. The first related to the global nature of this disease, given that flus spread easily and modern transportation flows mean containment is impossible. Second, there were concerns (including our own) that this flu would have a high mortality rate. And third, the panic centered on the mere fact that this disease was the flu.
…The reason to prepare for the worst was because this was a pandemic with an extremely unclear prognosis, and about which reliable information was in short supply. Indeed, the new strain could mutate into a more lethal form and re-emerge in the fall for the 2009-2010 flu season. There are also concerns about how its victims disproportionately are healthy young adults under 45 years of age — which was reported in the initial information out of Mexico, and has been reported as an observed factor in the cases that have popped up in the United States. This was part of the 1918 flu pandemic pattern as well. (In contrast, seasonal influenza is most deadly among the elderly and young children with weaker immune systems.)
But as the days wore on last week, the swine flu began to look like little more than ordinary flu. Toward the end of the week, a startling fact began to emerge: While there were more than a hundred deaths in Mexico suspected of being caused by the new strain, only about 20 (a number that has increased slightly after being revised downward earlier last week) have been confirmed as being linked to the new virus. And there has not been a single death from the disease reported anywhere else in the world, save that of a Mexican child transported to the United States for better care. Indeed, even in Mexico, the country’s health minister declared the disease to be past its peak May 3. STRATFOR sources involved in examining the strain have also suggested that the initial analysis of the swine flu was in fact in error, and that the swine flu may have originated during a 1998 outbreak in a pig farm in North Carolina. This information reopens the question of what killed the individuals whose deaths were attributed to swine flu.
(4 May 2009)
