Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
The Oil Drum: World Oil Production Peaked in 2008
ace, The Oil Drum
As everyone knows, there is never a post on The Oil Drum that the entire staff agrees on. Nonetheless, Tony bases his findings on solid research, and a staff survey shows that most agree with a 2008 peak. A post discussing whether an alternate scenario with a second later peak might be feasible is planned for later.
World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources.
(17 March 2009)
Belgian parliament group treks to Uppsala for peak oil briefing
Kjell Aleklett, Aleklett’s Energy Mix
The Standing Committee on Peak Oil and Gas of the Parliament of the Walloon Region of Belgium visits Uppsala
—
A week ago Friday I received a call from the office of Andres Björk, the County Governor. They asked whether I could receive a delegation from the Parliament of the Walloon Region of Belgium at the end of the next week. Apparently, the delegation’s foremost priority was to visit my research group at Uppsala University. I suggested that they might visit on Friday afternoon. A moment later the Belgian embassy called to confirm the time. We would meet at a joint lunch before we presented our research.
At the beginning of this week the embassy sent me an email with a longer attachment that described the background to the visit. However, all the activity during the week meant that it was Thursday evening when I first had the opportunity to read the document in detail. I knew that people in the French-speaking part of Belgium were interested in Peak Oil and that they had formed a national ASPO association. The question of Peak Oil had also been debated in their parliament via a question to the energy minister. The question of Peak Oil had then spread further and, on July 16, the parliament had moved to establish a standing committee for Peak Oil and Gas (Comité du pic du pétrole et du gaz). The interesting thing is that all the parties in the parliament supported the motion to establish the committee and they had also specified what the standing committee will do:
The role of this Peak Oil & Gas Committee will be to:
- be part of a European and world peak oil and gas monitoring network;
- monitor information about peak oil and gas issues;
- make recommendations to the Government of Wallonia according to the development of the issue of dependence on fossil fuels;
- raise the awareness of the authorities and citizens to the problem of depletion of fossil resources;
- check that recommendations made to the Government of Wallonia are followed up;
- monitor trends in indicators for dependence on fossil fuels.
The delegation that visited us included representatives for every party, a representative from the embassy and a French interpreter. After interesting discussions over lunch we moved on to the Ångström Laboratory and our presentations began with an overview of Peak Oil by Mikael Höök (who, in addition to being a Ph.D. student, is the Secretary of ASPO International). I myself described oil’s importance for GDP and economic growth and the fact that, presumably, it was the high oil price of last summer that was the triggering factor for the current economic crisis. My Ph.D. student Bengt Söderbergh presented the problems with European energy security and natural gas imports. Peak Gas has great importance for Belgium. The presentations were concluded with a review by my Ph.D. student Kristofer Jakobsson of modeling of future oil prices, something that is impossible with current economic models.
When I think back to the first workshop on Peak Oil that we held in Uppsala in 2002 and to this meeting with the delegation from a European parliament it is apparent that Peak Oil has become part of contemporary debate. This is supported by the fact that an advanced search for the precise expression “Peak Oil” gives 3,430,000 hits.
(15 March 2009)
Kjell Aleklett is president of ASPO International.
Global Oil Briefing No.2 (PO newsletter in German and English)
Dr. Steffen Bukold, Energy Comment
The current editioncovers inter alia current trends in oil demand, the Chinese oil shopping tour in February, and the history of crisis and paradigm change in oil markets 1850-2020 (“From Rockefeller to Peak Oil”).
Editorial
Traders and experts are at the ready, experts spread optimism: oil prices “want“ to rise. In the final days of February the 50-dollar mark was close, but in the end the equity slump was the dominating factor. Following another round of extensive forecast revisions by the big oil research institutes, analysts look elsewhere for orientation: stock prices have become a proxy of world oil demand – as if equity traders knew more about the condition of the world economy. The IMF has emerged as the guru of economic growth – just by collecting data everybody else already knows.
And oil markets? There are indeed a few signs of improved market balance: WTI has recovered, the forward curve is less steep, inventories are stable or slightly decreasing, the shrinkage of US demand is not accelerating, at least judging form provisional 2009 data. And, most importantly, OPEC has apparently managed to realize more than 80% of its large output cuts.
Today, the critical question is whether oil prices are still being pressured by demand issues or whether they are already being lifted by a lack of supply. The latest economic indicators still show a freefall of the global economy (cf. chapter Oil Markets). Additional OPEC cuts may be necessary to turn markets, but there are also signs that non-OPEC supply will be disappointing.
Meanwhile, Beijing has become the biggest fan of Peak Oil: in a global shopping tour they are spending billions of dollars to redirect crude streams towards their home market (cf. Oil Politics). This edition´s feature gives an overview of oil crises and market paradigms – just in case China is right. S.B.
(14 March 2009)
Available in both English and German.
San Francisco: Preparing city for life after oil
Joshua Sabatini, San Francisco
To avoid “a much darker future” The City should pursue transforming a city golf course into farmland, offer free Muni to low-income residents and quickly turn garages of homes into livable spaces, according to a city task force whose mission is to prepare San Francisco for an oil shortage.
The so-called Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force was created in December 2007 and has spent the last 15 months hammering out a plan that would transform San Francisco into a city with more people riding Muni, chicken coops in backyards, widespread farming on public and private lands, and extensive use of wind, solar and tidal energy.
“A much darker future” could “unfold” if The City does not see through the more than 70 recommendations in the 97-page report, the task force says. The task force is expected to finalize the report Tuesday and later submit it to the Board of Supervisors.
The report touches on an array of topics, including public power, citywide high-speed Internet access for every resident, requiring energy audits of buildings at point of sale, raising the charges at city parking facilities and meters and other disincentives for driving cars. All recommendations are based on reducing The City’s dependence on oil.
(15 March 2009)
