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The Inflection Is Near?
Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times
… Let’s today step out of the normal boundaries of analysis of our economic crisis and ask a radical question: What if the crisis of 2008 represents something much more fundamental than a deep recession? What if it’s telling us that the whole growth model we created over the last 50 years is simply unsustainable economically and ecologically and that 2008 was when we hit the wall — when Mother Nature and the market both said: “No more.”
We have created a system for growth that depended on our building more and more stores to sell more and more stuff made in more and more factories in China, powered by more and more coal that would cause more and more climate change but earn China more and more dollars to buy more and more U.S. T-bills so America would have more and more money to build more and more stores and sell more and more stuff that would employ more and more Chinese …
We can’t do this anymore.
“We created a way of raising standards of living that we can’t possibly pass on to our children,” said Joe Romm, a physicist and climate expert who writes the indispensable blog climateprogress.org. We have been getting rich by depleting all our natural stocks — water, hydrocarbons, forests, rivers, fish and arable land — and not by generating renewable flows.
“You can get this burst of wealth that we have created from this rapacious behavior,” added Romm. “But it has to collapse, unless adults stand up and say, ‘This is a Ponzi scheme. We have not generated real wealth, and we are destroying a livable climate …’ Real wealth is something you can pass on in a way that others can enjoy.”
… In the meantime, says Gilding, take notes: “When we look back, 2008 will be a momentous year in human history. Our children and grandchildren will ask us, ‘What was it like? What were you doing when it started to fall apart? What did you think? What did you do?’ ” Often in the middle of something momentous, we can’t see its significance. But for me there is no doubt: 2008 will be the marker — the year when ‘The Great Disruption’ began.
(7 March 2009)
UPDATE (March 8): Asher Miller of Post Carbon Institute reports today on a recent talk by Thomas Friedman: Hot, Flat, and Confused.
This is Not Youthful Rebellion. We See the Catastrophe Ahead
Josh Garman, Guardian
Climate change has provoked a war between the generations. Younger members of the government need to choose their side
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… We’re not the Noughties. This isn’t the next fad. The naive popular narrative that “every generation has their thing” and that climate is ours – that we’re the “Facebook generation” – simply does not hold. This isn’t about being disaffected and rebellious without a cause. This isn’t about dropping out, rejecting the norm, culture jamming and hacking the system. This isn’t even about altruism. It’s not just about defending the rights and lives of those who are less fortunate than us, and it certainly isn’t about polar bears. This is about us. For the millennial generation the patronising cliches fall apart, because this isn’t about ideals so much as hard science and the terrifying reality that what the scientists have been warning us all about for years – those sea level rises, catastrophic droughts and melting ice caps – will now happen in our lifetimes.
So we become angry when we witness the same generation which let the economic system collapse, and that is leaving my generation with an unfathomable burden of debt – Brown and Mandelson and the old men of politics – now knowingly setting us on another disastrous course. We know how this story ends, but not because we’ve read obscure economic treatises or dense theories from Friedman and Hayek or Hobsbawm and Marx. We know because scientists are providing measurable objective evidence that the high-carbon economic model has an in-built self-destruct mechanism.
The only difference between capitalism in crisis and the climate crisis is that almost nobody predicted the economic collapse, whereas almost every single qualified expert predicted with steady and unerring accuracy the effect that carbon dioxide is having on the climate. Now compare the reactions of our leaders to the two crises. If the world was a bank, Brown would have saved it already. Instead it is my generation, with our taxes for decades to come, which is bankrolling a bail-out that ranks at the bottom of the developed world for its focus on greening the economy. For us it’s all pain and no gain.
Joss Garman is co-founder of Plane Stupid and a columnist for the Ecologist
(8 March 2009)
Also at Common Dreams.
Rage Is Good
Tom Hayden, The Nation
… the global economy is being devastated by the Wall Street crash. Hundreds of millions are are hurtling into extreme poverty, export industries are collapsing, currencies being destabilized.
As the conservative French president Nicolas Sarkozy says, “Laissez-faire, ces’t fini.” (Laissez-faire is finished.)
As nations blame Wall Street and move to protect their people, the protests need not be anti-American nor anti-Obama. Sarkozy cannot be accused of being anti-US. Neither are Iceland nor Ukraine. The global opposition might just may be what we need, an organized populist counterforce to the business and banking lobbies entrenched in Washington.
… My sense is that we are moving too rapidly towards economic hell for a socialist ideology to catch up. While efforts to dust off and legitimize the term will go on, Meyerson is right that the battlefield just ahead is over reregulation, which may evolve into a contentious, awkward, bureaucratic nationalization out of necessity. That is why the sturdier, and heavily regulated Canadian and Swedish banking systems already are being closely examined.
But Obama is not only post-Sixties, he is post-Thirties too. Coming of age in the Reagan era, he was convinced that a healthy dose of President Clinton’s Rubinomics was the alternative to Reaganomics. It was the Clinton administration who crusaded for the deregulation of Wall Street at home and for neo-liberal privatizations in Latin America, Africa and Asia. A whole generation of “new Democrats” came to believe in market fundamentalism and magic bubbles. They privately dismissed those Canadians and Swedes as girlie-bankers. Now they are busted.
… It’s not clear what has happened to the anti-globalization movement of the past decade, but the opportunity now exists to argue for a system of global financial regulations, including capital controls, and a global living wage. Otherwise, financial capital will flow towards banking havens which are the least regulated, and threatened governments will move towards protecting their constituencies from unregulated global capitalism.
That is why the potential threat of worldwide anger in the streets, including the streets of American financial districts, is so important as the only strategic pressure point that that might cause Obama to ride herd on his recovering deregulators while a progressive populism comes alive in American politics.
(6 March 2009)
