Peak oil review – Feb 9

1. Production and Prices

The ongoing tension between bad economic news and OPEC production cuts resulted in a virtual stalemate last week. Oil started the week just above $40 a barrel and finished where it started with very little movement in between. Even a jump of 7.2 million barrels in the US crude inventory did little to move prices. Threats by various OPEC oil ministers to cut production further at the mid-March meeting continued last week as prices stubbornly refuse to move higher despite a series of cuts beginning last fall. Last week OPEC reported that it received an average of $41 per barrel of oil.

The $15 price differential between oil for March ($40) and December ($55) delivery is leading oil companies to continue storing large quantities of unsold oil aboard tankers. This in turn is contributing to downward pressure on prices. Oil prices fell 6.5 percent during January, the seventh consecutive monthly decline.

Despite the economic difficulties, US oil consumption in January was just down 2.8 percent over last year and gasoline was down by only 0.5 percent.

2. The Eventual Rebound

There is growing recognition that cheap ($40 a barrel), plentiful oil is not going to last forever, and when the price rebound comes, it could be violent. A Merrill Lynch research report released last week notes that un-replaced oil depletion could result in a cumulative decline of global oil production on the order of 30 million b/d by 2015.

In the immediate future, Oppenheimer analysts see a combination of OPEC supply cuts, falling investment in new production, and an economic recovery leading to a big increase in oil prices.

The analysts note that oil companies will lose 40 percent of their cash flow this year and that 80-90 percent of new investment goes to offset depletion. This will lead shortly to a situation where investments will not be keeping pace with depletion.

OPEC cuts, falling non-OPEC production and the lack of investment could lead to a situation where global production is 6 million b/d lower by the end of the year. It is problematic whether global demand will have fallen by this much.

There are so many unknowns in this situation that it is difficult to say when prices will rebound, and whether an improvement in the economic situation will have to happen before the increase. We have learned in the last year that oil prices are very sensitive to over- and under-supply so that rapid rises and falls in price will likely occur as soon as market conditions shift.

Henry Groppe, who has been forecasting oil prices for over 50 years, and more accurately than most analysts, sees crude prices doubling before year’s end. He believes that a 2 million b/d cut in OPEC production, a 4 million b/d increase in demand from very low oil prices, and a 1.2 million b/d cut in consumption from the economic slump will combine and net out to cause shortages.

3. Venezuela

The situation in Venezuela apparently took a turn for the worse last week and may be coming to a head. A US firm that says it is owed $100 million for drilling services is having difficulty in renegotiating new contracts and is threatening to pull out its drilling rigs. Local unions claim to have taken control of 2 rigs that were about to be moved. The company denies that their rigs have been commandeered, but say they have stopped drilling at two sites due to the contract problems.

Some of the problem can be linked to a referendum, on whether President Chavez can stay in office indefinitely, that is due to take place on February 15th. In advance of the vote, Chavez is said to have increased social spending, leaving the state oil company very short of cash.

In April there will be a new round of bidding for development rights in seven Orinoco oil fields. As these projects are the key to increasing Venezuelan oil production, the results of this bidding will be important to the country’s economic future and perhaps to Chavez’s political career. It has only been two years since Chavez forced several of the international oil companies out of their Orinoco projects through a combination of tax increases and nationalizations.

Despite increasing signs of financial stress, such as rapid inflation and food shortages, Chavez remains popular with the majority and is expected to win the referendum by a narrow margin. Over the longer run, oil prices will be the key to Chavez’s future. Financial reserves are running short and major policy shifts, such as devaluation and sharp reductions in social programs, are likely later this year.

4.Briefs (clips from recent Peak Oil News dailies are indicated by date and item #)

• As development of the Canadian oil sands “stagnates,” capital investment over the next 11 years will be cut 31 percent from a forecast made only three months ago and will need WTI prices above $70/barrel to resume growth and expansion, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute. The institute said its own 2008 forecast of oil sands production of 3.4 million b/d by 2015 has been scaled back to 1.9 million-2.9 million b/d (2/6, #18)
• Health officials in Alberta confirmed there are more cases of cancer than expected in a small aboriginal village downstream from the Canadian province’s oil sands plants. (2/7, #18)
• Nigerian militants attacked a gas plant operated by Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) in the Niger Delta on Saturday and warned of more strikes to come. (2/7, #6) A private security official says unidentified gunmen have attacked an oil-industry vessel off the coast of Nigeria and killed its captain. (2/6, #8)
• Russian gas giant Gazprom wants to invest at least $2.5 billion in the development and production of Nigeria’s natural gas reserves. Some experts see Russia’s interest in the West African country as an attempt to get a stranglehold on Europe’s natural gas supplies. (2/7, #7)
• Mexico led Latin oil production in December with 2.72 million barrels a day, followed by an estimated 2.35 million barrels a day from Venezuela. Brazil trailed with 1.88 million barrels a day. The IEA expects Mexico’s production to drop at least 7 percent this year after a 9 percent drop in 2008. (2/7, #9)
• The Air Force on January 29th dropped plans to build a coal-to-liquid plant to produce fuel for its aircraft, a plan that would have reduced dependence on oil but increased the emissions of the heat-trapping gases that cause global warming. A spokesman said he couldn’t comment on whether there were economic or environmental concerns until after all participants in the original plan were briefed. (2/1, #7)
• Nicholas Sarkis, Director General of the Paris-based Arab Petroleum Research Centre, which acts as an adviser to the Arab OPEC members, has blamed OPEC for the collapse in crude prices, saying the oil cartel has failed to fully comply with output cuts and kept sending contradicting messages to the already skeptic market. He said the decisions taken by exporting countries “remain largely theoretical” and has described OPEC’s behavior in dealing with the faltering crude demand over the past few months as “suicidal.” (2/2, #3)
• OPEC oil supply cuts may not be enough to counter falling industrial demand, requiring reductions by non-OPEC producers to restore balance to the market, Goldman Sachs said Wednesday. (2/5, #3)
• Energy Secretary Chu said he wants half of the roughly $35 billion to $40 billion proposed for Energy Department programs in the economic-stimulus package to be spent within a year. Chu said he wants to direct much of the money to projects including weatherization, energy efficiency and support for renewable energy. (2/7, #13)
• The US Agriculture Department is in discussions with the EPA about raising the amount of ethanol blended into the U.S. gasoline supply. (2/7, #14)
• U.S. ethanol producer and grain processor Archer Daniels Midland Co said nearly 21 percent of US ethanol production capacity has been shut due to weak demand and poor margins. (2/4, #13)
• Despite Interior Secretary Salazar’s vow to draft a comprehensive energy policy that includes new domestic oil and gas drilling, the industry is watching with a wary eye. (2/3, #12) Salazar directed the Bureau of Land Management on Feb. 4 not to accept $6 million in successful bids on 77 tracts offered in BLM’s Dec.18 oil and gas lease sale in Utah. (2/7, #15)
• In January, GM’s US sales plunged 49 percent, Chrysler’s 55 percent and Ford’s 40 percent. On Friday, Toyota Motor Corp. said it now expects to lose $3.89 billion in their current fiscal year, a stunning setback for a company that a few years ago netted $10+ billion annually. Only a month ago, Toyota thought it would make a modest profit. (2/7, #16)
• Despite lower expected expenditures during 2009 and 2010 relative to 2008, a Douglas-Westwood study forecasts that the petroleum industry’s deepwater expenditures will trend upward to total $162 billion between 2009 and 2013. (2/6, #4)
• In 2003, PDVSA forecast that it would be producing 4.4 million barrels/day by 2008. Output is even lower. It has fallen to 2.15 mb/day from 2.61 mb/day since 2004. (2/4, #8)
• Norway’s crude oil production fell to a preliminary 2.11 million barrels per day on average in January from 2.20 million in December. (2/4, #16)
• Russian oil production fell to 9.7 million barrels per day in January, a 0.9 percent drop year on year. (2/3, #16)
• Beijing authorities disclosed that about 20 million of the nation’s 130 million migrant workers are unemployed. (2/6, #10) In China bankruptcies, unemployment and social unrest are spreading more widely than officially reported. Electric utility use was down nearly 8 percent in December from a year ago in Guangdong and across China. Electricity is an excellent barometer of the Chinese economy because most usage is industrial. (2/2, #8)
• The International Monetary Fund now forecasts that Asia would grow by just 2.7 percent this year, a sharp cut from the 4.9 percent that it had predicted for Asian growth as recently as November. (2/3, #9)
• President Obama ordered the Energy Department to set energy efficiency standards for a broad range of household appliances, including ovens, lamps, microwaves, vending machines, dishwashers, commercial boilers and air conditioning units. (2/6, #12)
• Oil and natural gas producer EOG Resources plans to slash its number of operated rigs in 2009 in response to falling prices for oil and natural gas. The Houston-based energy company expects to reduce its number of rigs to an average of 45 in 2009, compared with an average of 73 total rigs in 2008. (2/6, #15)
• Husky Energy has slashed 30 percent off cost estimates for its joint oil sands development with BP as sliding crude prices rein in cost inflation. (2/6, #17) BP said it is slowing down its oil sands plans with partner Husky because it expects costs to deflate. (2/5, #19)
• Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest state-owned oil company, raised the official selling prices for all crude grades it will export to customers in March. (2/5, #6)
• The UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia will be able to balance their 2009 budgets even if oil prices stay at $45 per a barrel, while Qatar, Bahrain and Oman will require higher prices —above $60 per barrel according to the latest research by Kuwait Financial Centre. (2/5, #7)
• BP said it needs $50 to $60 a barrel to implement its current 2009 cash flow plans and warned output growth could be reined in by OPEC output cuts. (2/4, #15)
• Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, will take delivery of 33 new oil rigs by 2012 as it seeks to boost output. (2/5, #11)
• Asian utilities may slash imports of liquefied natural gas spot cargoes by as much as 74 percent this month as the global recession curbs demand from businesses and households. (2/2, #9)
• U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas declined 53 percent in 2008 as higher domestic production and increased Asian demand reduced shipments. (2/5, #14)
• China is rapidly emerging as the next global wind power. Last year it doubled wind energy capacity – for the fourth straight year – adding 6,300 megawatts of new electricity generation for a total capacity of 12,210 megawatts. (2/4, #10)
• As the United States became the world leader in wind power—25,170 megawatts vs. 23,902 MW in Germany—venture capitalists poured money into alternative energy projects until the recession hit in October, drying up investments and stalling projects. (2/4, #12)
• In the rush to build the next generation of hybrid or electric cars, a sobering fact confronts both automakers and governments seeking to lower their reliance on foreign oil: almost half of the world’s lithium, the mineral needed to power the vehicles, is found in Bolivia — a country that may not be willing to allow much access to the mineral (2/3, #19-20; 2/4, #18)

Quotes of the Week

• “If we don’t do anything, we are going to be importing 75 percent of our oil and I promise you, we are going to be paying $200 to $300 a barrel for it” in 10 years.
  T. Boone Pickens, CEO investment management firm