Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
UK will face peak oil crisis within five years, report warns
Duncan Clark, Guardian
Declining availability of oil will hit the UK earlier than generally expected, with potentially devastating implications for the UK economy, report warns
—
The risk to the UK from falling oil production in coming years is greater than the threat posed by terrorism, according to an industry taskforce report published today.
The report, from the Peak Oil group, warns that the problem of declining availability of oil will hit the UK earlier than generally expected – possibly within the next five years and as early as 2011.
Oil supply could then rapidly decline, or even collapse, the report warns, with potentially devastating implications for the UK economy.
The report was issued today by the recently established UK industry taskforce on peak oil and energy security, a group of eight companies including transport firms Virgin, Stagecoach and FirstGroup, engineers Arup, architects Foster and Partners, and energy giant Scottish and Southern.
(29 October 2008)
UK companies urge steps to head off global ‘oil crunch’
Sarah Arnott, Independent (UK)
The world is facing a dangerous “oil crunch” in as little as five years, and the Government needs to starting working on solutions now to avoid major economic and social problems, a cross-industry group warned yesterday.
“Peak oil” is the point at which the rate of extraction exceeds the discovery of new supplies, with considerable economic and political consequences for energy-hungry countries reliant on oil for everything from energy to pharmaceuticals to agricultural fertilisers.
Timetables vary, but the taskforce of eight companies, including Stagecoach, Virgin and Scottish & Southern Energy, is predicting the end of cheap and easy oil supplies as early as 2012. Even Royal Dutch Shell, commissioned to write a balancing view for the group’s report, is forecasting a plateau ofsupply as production moves to more difficult sources such as ultra-deeplayers and tar sands.
“We are going to reach a peak in the early part of the next decade,” said Will Whitehorn, the cross-industry group’s chairman and president of Virgin Galactic. “If we are going to avoid a crunch we need to invest now.” The groupbelieves a national energy plan should urgently implement accelerated energy conservation and more investment in renewable resources.(30 October 2008)
ASPO VII – first day
Luis de Sousa, The Oil Drum: Europe
The VII International Conference on Oil and Gas Depletion was the first in many ways: the first after the death of Ali Samsam Bakhtiari; the first after record oil prices; and the first after serious economic difficulties hitting the OECD. Right from the beginning there was a feeling in the air that circumstances had changed and a new era had arrived.
For the background of each speaker please visit the conference’s website.
This year’s conference took place in the cosmopolitan city of Barcelona in Catalonia, The city itself is a living example of the arrangements in urban planning we might have to undertake to answer Peak Oil. Throughout the days spent there I felt quite comfortable, in a place worth living and caring for, even if expensive in some aspects (well, public bicycles are free for half an hour).
… The first day started with the usual opening ceremony, this time hosted by the Catalan minister of Innovation, University and Enterprise. Then followed Kyell Alleklett with a welcoming address. He remembered Ali Bakhtiari, and how important he was for the start up of ASPO, and the risk he took in associating with the organization. He stressed that the concept of Peak Oil is yet not well understood by all and told us about his bet with BP’s Tony Hayward, that world oil production in 2018 will be below today’s rate. Going on with his address on “Peak Oil and Economic Growth in Africa”, Kyell pointed that without Oil, a country cannot have political strength. Production is growing in sub-Saharan Africa, and will reach a peak over 7 Mb/d, but the West and China are taking that resource away. He concluded that we should be helping Africa use that Oil and not stealing it away.
Carlos de Castro, from the University of Valladolid, presented an approach to modelling the future of the world’s energy and economy using systems dynamics. He pointed out that both geologists and economists are looking at the problem considering a restricted set of variables, thus having a limited view. All the main variables considered by these two groups must be taken into account as well as the feedbacks among them.
(29 October 2008)
Oil’s stunning retreat: How long can it last?
Jad Mouawad, International Herald Tribune
After surging to record levels this summer, oil prices have suffered a dizzying collapse in recent months, echoing the darkening prospects of the global economy.
Within three months, drastic swings drove oil prices from their peak of $147.27 a barrel to less than $65 a barrel. Oil industry analysts at Goldman Sachs, who had raised the possibility that prices could reach $200 this year, now believe that oil could drop to $50 a barrel in the event of a global recession.
While consumers can cheer the drop, producers have been alarmed at the sudden downturn in their fortunes. Fears of a global slowdown have kicked off a down cycle in the oil sector: It is unclear how long it will last and how low prices will go.
As oil gets caught in the wild gyrations of the financial meltdown, three major questions loom over the oil markets for next year.
What will happen to oil consumption in the United States and in China? How will producers respond to lower prices? Can the oil cartel OPEC stop the slide in prices?
(28 October 2008)
Heinberg: Go develop yourself
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
In a recent commentary I suggested that, due to the confluence of the unfolding economic crisis and Peak Oil, we have now seen the last of aggregate world economic growth—forever—if the word “growth” is conventionally defined. So far no one else seems to have taken up this idea. So, in forthcoming commentaries, I will seek to sort out the evidence that might confirm or disconfirm the notion, and also unpack some of its implications.
Today I am somewhat exercised by a spate of recent articles that suggest the financial collapse may cause “developed” countries to forgo promised aid packages (i.e., loans) to “developing” ones.
For many years I have resisted using the language of “development,” as the term can mean so many things. At its base, it is a metaphor for industrialization, if it is first assumed that industrialism is the goal and destiny of all human societies. Those that are already industrialized are “developed,” while those that aren’t are “developing.”
However, if (as I believe is the case) industrialization was a consequence of the brief historical period of fossil fuel consumption, then it is not the destiny of all societies, and may not survive for long in any of them.
Moreover, as the word “development” is actually used, it means other things as well. Sometimes it is applied with regard to natural resources, as in “developing Africa’s oil resources.” In that case, the word simply means “extract,” or, to be more precise, “steal.” In other instances, “development” is used to refer to the goals of reducing hunger, disease, and poverty—conditions that in many cases are simply the consequence of the previous kind of “development.”
Because the word “development” means basically whatever you want it to mean, its use is pernicious and has masked blatantly predatory behavior on the part of banks and governments. It’s sad to see people who live in less-industrialized nations, and idealistic workers at NGOs, using the term so thoughtlessly. But it’s almost unavoidable: the word is everywhere.
(28 October 2008)
