If you had been able to attend the first afternoon of the ASPO-USA conference in Sacramento yesterday, you could have listened to six writers, most of them working as print journalists today, sharing their insights as to how members of the media cover the peak oil story. The two panels didn’t offer breaking news but rather some modest wisdom for attendees. Some take-aways:
Prices and the oil story: no surprise that everyone agreed the story receives ramped-up coverage when prices are rising. Neil King, who covers oil, OPEC and international energy issues for the Wall Street Journal, observed that there is some price point—he guessed at around $115—where oil is high enough to garner significant and thoughtful coverage yet not so high that consumer and political outrage dominates the story line.
He cautioned against a sense of certitude about the consequences of peak oil, while at the same time acknowledging that “the likelihood that our current mobility lifestyle will be kneecapped is fairly high.” Neil mentioned informally querying a number oil industry experts and analysts last November and December as to the price of oil they forecast for July 1, 2008; as a group, they were off by 80%.
Freelance writer Erica Etelson, whose articles have appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle and LA Times, mused that in the aftermath of the February 2005 Hirsch Report on peak oil, newspaper headlines should have blared “government reports indicates worst crisis in history.” Instead, the media snoozed past that opportunity some three+ years ago. To improve coverage of the peak oil story, Etelson encouraged 1) asking for meetings with editorial boards; 2) approaching the ombudsman’s office at any newspaper; 3) while targeting larger media outlets, don’t ignore local media outlets that may actually be more approachable; 4) supply the peak oil facts to pundits that often turn up on the TV news circuits; and 5); every time there is good coverage of the peak oil story, clip and send it to your elected officials.
Bart Anderson, editor of the Energy Bulletin clearing house on peak oil and sustainability, articulated a common lament: that writers are referencing the peak oil story more often, yet the coverage is generally too shallow. He characterized the narrow demographics of the peak oil interest as generally professional white males—another lament. On the upside he identified a key angle that can enable media coverage: the story is generally bipartisan. Angles for potential future coverage include the peaking of other natural resources, including peak phosphorous for making fertilizer.
Lisa Margonelli, author of the highly readable Oil on the Brain: Petroleum’s Long Strange Trip to Your Tank, writes about global culture and the economy of energy. She asked a key question: “how important is it to have your brand—the words ‘peak oil’—be part of an energy story?” One of her observations: the offshore drilling debate got turned into “environmentalists vs. Americans.” Lisa stated that America’s sense of entitlement to cheap oil is based on a myth because oil has never been cheap. Consider the costs we never see when we swipe our cards at the pump: the $0.50/gallon cost just cover related asthma problems; the 1000 deaths per year in the Niger Delta; the billions per year spent by the US to defend access to oil; and more. She ended with the observation that some writers are almost afraid to talk with some people whose position on peak oil is closely tied to a date when they forecast oil production will peak.
Tom Whipple, columnist, editor of this publication and former CIA analyst, admitted with some resignation that “the reason we’re here today is that the mainstream media really isn’t covering the story…this is like missing the run-up to the Civil War or World War II.” He identified a key missing link the — the Washington Post. Tom highlighted the reality that congressional staffers all read the Post, a paper with little coverage of the peak oil story between an editorial slam by Daniel Yergin three years ago and a reasonable three-part series during July that actually mentioned peak oil directly. An under-reported story he thinks will continue emerging is the fact that electricity brownouts and blackouts in large swaths of the developing world (Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc.) will eventually truly hammer those economies, if that isn’t already happening. He also is concerned that the broader energy and peak oil story will get lost in the financial crisis.
Rob Collier, now with the University of California (Berkeley), covered foreign affairs and energy issues for the San Francisco Chronicle for over 15 years. At present writing a book on China. Rob worries that the energy production and consumption data from China are too murky to truly assess their impact on the world economy. The Los Angelization of China is being driven by the new Chinese dream of expanded personal freedom: auto sales are up 24% year over year, a trend that should move China to the world’s number one auto market by 2015; this will crank up world oil prices. When challenged about the practically of his view that China’s growth forecasts won’t soon bump up against peak resource problems, Rob responded: “China is rich. They have the money. They will be able to buy the oil.”
Nothing earth-shaking here about peak oil, unless you buy into the statement offered up in passing by Neil King: “there is this thing that could really rock the US economy….”
(Note: Commentaries do not necessarily represent ASPO-USA’s positions; they are personal statements and observations by informed commentators)
Steve Andrews is a co-founder of ASPO-USA.
