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Annual Threat Assessment by the Director of National Intelligence
for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
J. Michael McConnell, Annual Threat Assessment
Some excerpts concerning energy below and the full text attached of the Annual Threat Assessment by the Director of National Intelligence:
p. 4 of intro – Summary observations
“Growing humanitarian concerns stemming from the rise in food and energy costs for poorer states.
Growing influence and potential of energy in Russia slated to grow in the next four years – p. 29-30
“Russia is positioning to control an energy supply and transportation network spanning from Europe to East Asia.”
Extensive discussion of the role of oil in Venezuela beginning on p. 34
“an increasing energy crunch” is likely to slow growth in China over the long term p. 35
Iran and Venezuela have established closer ties – including an agreement for oil exploration in the Orinoco region (heavy, unconventional oil) p. 35
Dynamics fueling higher oil prices appear likely to endure p. 41.
Factors cited include “OPEC production restraint and lackluster output growth from non-OPEC countries,” …”a weaker U.S. dollar, and perceptions of multiple and serious geopolitical risks in the face of low global spare production capacity “ Syria, Libya and Iran have asked to be paid in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Others, such as Kuwait, are delinking their currencies pegs to the dollar. Continued concern about dollar depreciation could tempt others to follow suit.
OPEC countries earned $690 billion from oil exports last year, nearly THREE TIMES more than in 2003…Producers like Iran, Venezuela, Sudan and Russia have garnered political, economic and military advantages and complicated efforts to address problems such as Dharfur and Iran’s nuclear program. P. 42
70% of reserves are inaccessible to International Oil Companies. There is increased competition among them for deals in accessible areas. Indian and Chinese-state owned companies and IOCs are pursuing strategic investments in energy assets worldwide. P. 43
Wheat prices were up 60%, a 20-year high. P. 43
Food prices are likely to be a factor in upcoming elections, including Pakistan. P. 44
High energy and high food prices are increasing the risk of social and political instability in vulnerable countries.
Corn protests in Mexico, bread riots in Morocco and unrest in Burma are directly linked to higher food and energy prices. P. 44
(7 February 2008)
Unclassified report. Courtesy of Lisa Wright of Rep. Roscoe Bartlett’s staff. -BA
White House on Peak Oil (PDF)
Council of Economic Advisors, The White House
Economic Report of the President (PDF, Chapter 7, page 167)
In 2008, the nominal price for crude oil reached its highest level ever. This increase was due to several economic, geopolitical, and environmental factors such as growing world demand, limited supply growth, smaller inventories, security concerns in oil producing countries, and a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar.
Some fear that high oil prices reflect a peak in oil production and predict an imminent decline in production in the near future. This type of prediction often assumes static or growing consumption with limited additional discovery or production. As the price of oil rises, however, there is an economic incentive to find new sources or improve extraction techniques. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is one example of this type of response. EOR is any technique that can increase the amount of oil that can be recovered from an oil field, but it is most commonly associated with gas injection, particularly using CO2, which forces the oil to the surface. The Department of Energy estimates that state-of-the-art EOR could potentially add an additional 89 billion barrels to the total recoverable oil resources of the United States, although not all of that is necessarily economically recoverable.
Even if production has peaked, we are unlikely to abruptly run out of oil. As the price rises over time, producers will have an incentive to retain some of the resource to sell at a later date and consumers will have an incentive to transition away from oil consumption. Over time, the price rise will make the adoption of alternative energy sources more and more likely.
(12 February 2008)
Chapter 7 of the report is devoted to “Searching for Serious Energy Alternatives.”
Excerpt posted at today’s Drumbeat (The Oil Drum).
Tugs tend LNG tanker as repairs made off Cape Cod
Engines failed on trip to Boston
Peter J. Howe , Boston Globe
As Coast Guard and tugboat crews tended last night to a liquefied natural gas tanker crippled off Cape Cod, critics of LNG deliveries through Boston Harbor called the breakdown another warning of the threat the tankers could pose to the Hub.
more stories like this
The 933-foot Spanish-flagged LNG tanker Catalunya Spirit was heading from Trinidad to the LNG facility in Everett when its propulsion system shut down about 3 a.m. Monday, apparently because of a computer malfunction, the Coast Guard said.
After hours drifting at sea, the 5-year-old vessel was corraled by four tugboats about 25 miles east of Provincetown, where technicians were working last evening to fix it under Coast Guard oversight.
The engine breakdown was apparently the first such incident in the 27 years of LNG shipments to the Suez Distrigas facility in Everett.
Many local officials, including Mayor Thomas M. Menino of Boston, have long feared that an attack by terrorists or saboteurs on LNG tankers carrying some 120,000 cubic meters of fuel could unleash a catastrophic firestorm.
The idea that a disabled tanker could float, vulnerable, near the densely populated harborfront, some officials said, was terrifying.
(13 February 2008)
Natural Gas As Clean Energy, Energy Policy In The Campaign
Energy Policy TV
Denise Bode, CEO, American Clean Skies Foundation, is interviewed about the unsung role of natural gas in clean energy policy, reaction to the 2008 State of the Union address and energy policy in the 2008 presidential campaign.
(11 February 2008)
Science Adviser to the President, Dr. John Marburger on climate change, energy security
Energy Policy TV
Dr. John Marburger, Science Adviser to the President and Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), outlines the plan
the Bush Administration is pursuing to minimize climate change and achieve energy security, emphasizing the development of new technologies like carbon sequestration and the importance of an international framework that holds all countries accountable.
(11 February 2008)
