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IEA Chief Says Oil May Rise to $150 on China Demand
Alexander Kwiatkowski and Paul George, Bloomberg
Oil prices may rise to as high as $150 a barrel because of booming demand from India and China, according to the director of the International Energy Agency.
“In a very high growth scenario in China and India it may move up to $150,” Nobuo Tanaka said in an interview in Paris today. Those countries “are consuming energy in a very, very substantial way.”
Oil touched a record $100 a barrel in New York yesterday as renewed violence in Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, raised the specter of further supply disruptions. Prices are up 71 percent from a year ago.
“Suddenly the lower-level price age may be over and we are now in the age of very high energy prices,” Tanaka said.
(3 January 2008)
From $1.80 to $100 in 37 years
RTE (Ireland)
Key milestones in the price of crude oil since 1970. On Wednesday, the price of a barrel of light sweet crude, the benchmark oil price in New York, broke through $100 for the first time.
– 1970: The official price of Saudi crude oil is fixed at $1.80 a barrel.
– 1974: Prices pass $10 after the first oil shock, sparked by the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war.
– 1979: Prices pass $20 as the Islamic revolution in Iran causes a second oil shock.
…
– Dec 28, 2007: Oil prices hit $97.79 after the murder of Pakistan’s opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and following a sixth successive weekly drop in US crude reserves.
– Jan 2, 2008: Prices hit $100.
(3 January 2008)
Matt Simmons: If Demand Rises 1.5% to 2%, Global Economic Growth May Stall
’08 Oil Outlook (Part 1 of 3)
Energy Tech Stocks
If oil demand in 2008 rises 1.5% to 2% above 2007’s level, global economic growth will stall unless oil production quickly climbs into record territory. That’s the dire outlook from Matthew R. Simmons, chairman of the Houston-based energy investment banking firm Simmons & Company International.
Simmons is the financial world’s most respected proponent of the school of thought that the world has hit an oil production “peak.” Until this year, peak oil advocates were generally dismissed by governments and in the media in favor of private and government analysts more in line with the oil industry’s own more optimistic assessments. But recent articles in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere suggest the tide is turning. Indeed, Simmons’s 2008 prediction is disturbingly similar to one just issued by the U.S. government’s own energy forecaster.
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent short-term forecast concluded that global oil markets will remain tight. EIA said world oil demand will grow much faster than non-OPEC supply, leaving OPEC to make up the difference. EIA indicated this may not happen because, contrary to Western experts, the cartel believes the world is well-supplied, a position that may or may not be camouflage for the cartel’s inability to further significantly raise production.
Simmons told EnergyTechStocks.com that if demand rises 1.5% to 2%, unless crude production quickly rebounds to its peak set in May 2005 and then keeps growing in step with demand, the world will draw down stocks to the point “where shortages stop further growth.” (Inventory levels in parts of the world are already low.)
(2 January 2008)
Higher Oil Prices Long Term May Impede Global Growth
Sudeep Reddy, Wall Street Journal
Oil prices only briefly touched $100 a barrel today, but a prolonged stay at that level could soften the world’s strong economic growth and threaten a U.S. economy already weakened by an ailing housing market and increasingly cautious lenders.
Higher oil prices would also test the progress made by many of the world’s industrialized economies toward greater energy efficiency since the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s.
…In the U.S., which remains the most oil-dependent industrialized nation, oil at $100 would threaten consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and is already expected to soften as home values decline. Oil’s rise is sending up the price of gasoline — the most visible price in the U.S. economy — and that has major impact on consumer psychology. Readings of consumer confidence have been weakening recently.
(2 January 2008)
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