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Richard Heinberg Interview (Video)
OneWorldTV
The catastrophic effects of declining oil supplies: journalist and author Richard Heinberg discusses the true consequences of ‘peak oil’. In this interview, filmed by our friends at Spanner Films (McLibel, Drowned Out, Baked Alaska), Heinberg makes clear the fundamental nature of oil as the bedrock of modern civilisation and the devastating impact our dependency upon it will have as global supplies start to dwindle.
(23 August 2007)
Short (7-1/2 minute interview) in which Heinberg succinctly explains the basics of peak oil. In a second interview Heinberg discusses agriculture and survival prospects after peak. -BA
On sale: 2015 Crude Oil below 45 $! (PDF)
Emmanuel Fruchard, Personal blog
Is peak oil an accepted concept now? That’s what this site has been trumpeting in the past months. Indeed a majority of journalists, politicians and official oil experts, each with their own words, has adopted the notion. But one voice is missing in this sudden consensus: financial markets. Indeed financial market see crude oil fall sharply in coming years, at least in today’s dollars. This article explains this surprising fact.
…The market does not believe in peak oil
The preceding picture shows that the financial markets do not (yet) believe in peak oil. Otherwise the forward curve in 2007 dollar prices would move up. Many economists in trading room have joined the peak oil supporters in theirs speeches for the press, but traders have not followed. In trading rooms it is well known that what matters is not what one is saying, but what positions he or she is taking. As of today the market talks clear and loud: there is no oil crisis forecast. This observation is important because executives decide their energy policy and investments based on forward prices. As long as it is possible to buy cheap oil, why bother diversify sources of energy, or simply spend money to save energy? For example airlines buy a lot of jet fuel in advance. Forward jet fuel prices are low and that’s why saving efforts are modest
(August 2007)
In June Energy Bulletin published excerpts and a link to Emmanuel Fruchard’s article:
How to hedge your family’s oil consumption: A practical guide (PDF).
6th Annual International ASPO Conference in September: ‘Time to React?’
Richard O’Rourke, ASPO-Ireland
This years Annual International ASPO conference is shaping up to be a truly significant event and for a number of reasons. Not least of which is that this will be the first time Ireland will host the event, home to ASPO’s founder, Dr. Colin Campbell. And September is a wonderful time of year to visit the Emerald Isle.
In designing the programme and coming up with a theme for the conference we took on board feedback from last year’s conference in Pisa and the ASPO USA conference in Boston. Consensus emerged that investing time and effort into trying to come up with an ‘accurate’ date for peak is not necessarily the most fertile field to furrow.
‘Time to react?’ was chosen because it resonates on two levels, the most obvious is designed to target the mainstream public for whom the concept is still quite new and generally poorly understood. The second is for the more seasoned student of Peak Oil where the focus of attention is moving from trying to predict when peak might occur to the realisation that the range of possible dates is finite and even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that our modern society faces a truly significant challenge in dealing with the phenomenon of Peak Oil. And that will occur within the context of the equally grave challenge we face from the threat of Global Warming. As Global Warming moves into mainstream consciousness we will explore the relationship between these two critical challenges.
Agenda
Speakers
Articles by speakers
(August 2007)
Douglas Low of ODAC writes:
What looks particularly interesting is that so many of the speakers come from industry, or from sectors that a few years ago would/could not attend a Peak Oil conference.
EROEI Short #1: Boundaries & Calculations
Jeff Vail, The Oil Drum
This is the first in a series of short articles that strive to continue the ongoing discussion here on the concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested.
Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)* is a problematic concept. As Cutler J. Cleveland has noted, “It is impossible to precisely identify and quantify all those factors [that contribute to the energy input to energy production], or to unequivocally categorize them as either physical or economic factors.” [1]
Despite this difficulty in calculation, the importance of the figure is clear: it is axiomatic that if EROEI is less than 1-that is, if it takes more energy input than the produced energy output-then substantial reliance on that form of energy is not a valid foundation for modern civilization.
…The principle difficulty in calculating EROEI is the desire to define a boundary of energy inputs that will be included in calculations.
At one extreme, only the direct energy inputs to energy production may be considered-e.g., the energy required to lift oil from its reservoir to the surface. This approach has the clear advantage that the considered energy inputs are finite and readily quantifiable. The downside is an EROEI figure that fails to accurately represent the actual energy surplus or deficit of process.
On the other extreme, the string of energy inputs can be regressed infinitely
(23 August 2007)
